Tom Blaz

NFL Draft: Review and Preview

There was no suspense atop the draft last night with Cam Newton going as expected number one to Carolina. At number two, Denver selected linebacker Von Miller, with many projecting Alabama defensive lineman Marcel Dareus in that slot. Dareus ended up going next to Buffalo, virtually swapping projected spots, so the impact on rest of first round was minimal.

The first surprise came with Atlanta trading up to Cleveland’s spot at number six and taking Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones. Jones going that high not a surprise, but the Falcons giving up five draft picks to do it, was a bit steep.

Many expected a run on quarterbacks, possibly early on. A run did come, but it did come as a surprise as several teams, with a need at the position, passed on Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert. Tennessee shocked the room by taking Washington’s Jake Locker in the number eight slot. With Gabbert slipping, Jacksonville moved up, trading with Washington, to get Gabbert. Another team needing a signal caller, Minnesota, did get one, but Florida State’s Christian Ponder was puzzling, with several higher regarded QB’s still available. No other quarterbacks went in the first round, but many are lining up to potentially move up in tonight’s 2nd round to get one of the three big names still available, Arkansas’ Ryan Mallet, Andy Dalton of TCU and Colin Kaepernick fromm Nevada.

Several defensive lineman slipped from lofty projections. Auburn’s Nick Fairley lasting until pick thirteen, selected by Detroit, setting up as an intriguing interior for the Lions, paired with All-Pro Ndamukong Suh. North Carolina’s Robert Quinn projected as a top ten pick by most, fell into the Rams lap at number 14. It was a defensive lineman that didn’t get selected that is creating most of the buzz today. Clemson’s DaQuan Bowers getting bypassed in the opening round due to some serious injury concerns. Going into the 2010 season, Bowers was considering the top NFL prospect.

Lineman dominated much of the remaining picks in the opening round. Not surprisingly, only one running back was taken. Alabama’s Heisman trophy winner Mark Ingram selected by the New Orleans Saints with pick number 28. Only three corner backs were taken in what was regarded as a shallow position. Elite cover man Patrick Peterson chosen by Arizona at number five, but Nebraska’s Prince Amukamara lasted longer than expected, going at number 19 to the New York Giants. Colorado’s Jimmy Smith was the other corner, Baltimore selecting him at 27. That pick is causing a bit of a controversy, as Baltimore was actually passed over in the slot briefly, while trying to work a trade with Chicago. The Ravens have asked the NFL for a 4th round pick from the Bears to compensate them for the mess.

Rounds two and three are tonight when the draft resumes There are some excellent prospects till on the board, which may prompt some trading in picks. We already mentioned Bowers, along with the three quarterbacks, all of which will be gone early. As mentioned, Ingram is the only running back gone, leaving three excellent backs still up for grabs. Virginia Tech’s Ryan Williams, Kansas State’s Daniel Thomas and Illinois’ Mikel Leshoure will all be taken quickly tonight. The elite receivers are long gone, but a solid six will go tonight, headlined by Maryland speedster Torrey Smith. Notre Dame’s Kyle Rudolph is the best tight end in the draft, it wouldn’t have surprised had he been taken last night.

Lineman were very popular in round one, with twenty selected, eight on defense and a dozen on offense. The cream of the crop is gone on the offensive side of things, but solid defensive lineman, led by Bowers still remain. More specifically, a trio of defensive tackles will be in high demand. Oregon State strong man Stephen Paea, Jarvis Jenkins from Clemson and North Carolina’s Marvin Austin are on everyone’s short list. With Von Miller the only traditional linebacker taken last night, lots of quality remains. Georgia”s Justin Houston and UCLA’s Akeem Ayers will go early on. The class was shallow at cornerback, and all three are gone. The top defensive back taken will probably be Rahim Moore of UCLA.

Rounds four through seven are on Saturday as the draft wraps up.

NFL Draft Day Mock

The 2011 NFL draft is finally upon us. With labor strife grinding league activities to a halt, the NFL draft has become even more center stage. No free agency, no trades, no mini-camps, just the draft. Without a doubt, trades will be made tonight, no player trades, not even trades involving selected players, just draft pick for draft pick. Rather than try to project tonight’s trades, which would be a shot in the dark, our mock is based on order as of deadline.

FantasySP takes a closer look with our own mock draft of tonight’s first round.

1. Carolina (2-14) Cam Newton, QB, Auburn University/ The selection of Newton #1 is the only sure thing tonight. Perhaps the pick gets traded, but #1 overall will be Newton.
2. Denver (4-12) Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama/ A strong combine and consistency over several seasons vaulted Dareus over previous favorite Nick Fairley.
3. Buffalo (4-12) Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M/ The Bills are considering Blaine Gabbert, but can’t pass up the pass rush specialist. Ryan Fitzpatrick has surprised at QB for Buffalo, allowing them to focus on defense.
4. Cincinnati (4-12) AJ Green, WR, Georgia/ Is Terrell Owens done? Is Ocho Cinco going to stick with soccer? Green may be good enough to convince Carson Palmer to return.
5. Arizona (5-11) Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri/ This selection changes the remainder of the entire first round. LSU’s Patrick Peterson could go here, but if the Cards want Larry Fitzgerald long-term, they need to do this.
6. Cleveland (5-11) Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU/ If Arizona passes on the stud corner, could Cleveland pass? Would team with last years high #1 Joe Haden giving the Browns elite cover corners for a decade.
7. San Francisco (6-10) Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska/ Is big, athletic and physical, but cover skills are doubted by some. Even so, a productive corner is hard to pass up, especially at a position of need.
8. Tennessee (6-10) Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn/ Was projected as top overall pick early in the process. The Titans need a quarterback, but have had success with recent defensive selections from Auburn.
9. Dallas (6-10) Tyron Smith, OT, USC/ As usual, Jerry Jones with smoke screens and misdirection on eve of draft. Offensive tackle was only hole entering last season, time to plug it.
10. Washington (6-10) Julio Jones, WR, Alabama/ Skins need a lot, and limited picks = every pick must count. With Santana Moss slowing (and a free agent) and a pair of 2nd round busts at WR several years ago, Jones would become immediate go to guy.
11. Houston (6-10) Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina/ Everyone’s favorite defensive end in the class. Only drawback was the suspension in 2010.
12. Minnesota (6-10) JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin/ Amazed scouts at the combine. Is big, fast and nasty. Could learn from one of the best already entrenched at right end. With trades right around the corner, the Vikes wait for Donovan McNabb.
13. Detroit (6-10) Cameron Jordan, DE, California/ Another “must have” on the corner. Jordan was a one man wrecking crew for the Golden Bears and climbed even higher on boards after the combine.
14. St. Louis (7-9) Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri/ The run on ends continue with the versatile Smith. The Rams could use a WR and would take Green or Jones, but need to address defense after a lot of attention to offense in recent drafts.
15. Miami (7-9) Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas/ The Dolphins say they need a new running back, but they need a quarterback more. Talk of Mallett slipping to 2nd round or further are ridiculous. Andy Dalton is not near the talent Mallett is.
16. Jacksonville (8-8) Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue/ The run on defensive end’s continues with Big Ten defensive lineman of the year Kerrigan. The academic All-American figures to fit much better in a 4-3.
17. New England (14-2) — from Oak Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama/ The Patriots with the first of three picks in the top 33 of the draft. This gift coming from Oakland in the Richard Seymour trade. Think Emmitt Smith with this Heisman Trophy winner.
18. San Diego (9-7) Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor/ Every 3-4 team is yearning for this monster. 6’3″ 335 with decent mobility, perfect fit for the triangle in the middle of the Chargers defense.
19. New York Giants (10-6) Anthony Castonzo, OT.Boston College/One of three offensive tackles projected in the first round, Castonzo could step right in for the G-men. New York thrives on depth and versatility along both lines.
20. Tampa Bay (10-6) Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson/ IF healthy, the steal of the draft. Long considered the top player in the draft, injury has forced Bowers further and further down war room boards. Great addition after two very high defensive line picks a year ago.
21. Kansas City (10-6) Danny Watkins, OL, Baylor/Past high picks Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey would combine for a stout run defense in the 3-4.
22. Indianapolis (10-6) Nate Solder, OT, Colorado/Prototype size, 6’8″ 320, for a tackle. Was selected Big 12 Lineman of the year by conference coaches. Peyton Manning is a happy man tonight.
23. Philadelphia (10-6) Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado/ Didn’t post an interception in 2010, but was only thrown at 20 times. Allowed only one TD in man coverage all season.

24. New Orleans (11-5) Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois/ Intrigues many teams with versatility to perform in 3-4 and 4-3 fronts. Breakout senior season culminating with selection on ESPN All-Bowl team.
25. Seattle (7-9) Jake Locker, QB, Washington/ Perhaps Matt Hasselbeck comes back, but what better long term answer than the homegrown Husky. Charlie Whitehurst is not the future of the franchise.
26. Baltimore (12-4) Akeem Ayers, LB, UCLA/ Baltimore also considered a wide receiver. Insurance pick for last year’s top choice Sergio Kindle.
27. Atlanta (13-3) Mike Pouncey, C, Florida/ The Falcons complete the rebuild of the O-line. High priority to keep Matt Ryan upright and healthy.
28. New England (14-2) Cameron Heyward, DL, Ohio State/ Son of “Iron Head” has a huge upside. Versatile to lineup anywhere along the D-line.
29. Chicago (11-5) Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State/ A perfect fit as the Bears rebuild the interior of the defensive line. The strongest player in college football.
30. New York Jets (11-5) Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina/ Time to give up on injury prone interior lineman and take a chance on “marvelous” Marvin. Stock fell due to 2010 suspension.
31. Green Bay (10-6) Adrian Clayborn, DL, Iowa/ The leader of the most talented defensive line in college football. Yet another piece in arguably the best young defense in the NFL.
32. Pittsburgh (12-4) Aaron Williams, CB, Texas/ Steelers brass have let it be known Williams is their’s if available at this spot. May fit better at safety.

Tomorrow, we wrap up the week with a look back at how the first round fared.

NFL Draft: WR’s and TE’s

Need a wide receiver in a bad way? Your prayers have been answered! Only one problem, there are only two available.

Sure there are many more that will be selected, but Julio Jones and A.J. Green are far about the rest. How far you ask? The Southeastern Conference dynamic duo are both deserving of top 10 selections in tomorrow’s opening round. As for the others, there really is no telling how far into the draft before they are chosen.

Jones and Green were both elite high school prospects that excelled in the SEC. Both added to their aura with outstanding performances at the NFL combine. Most analysts have Green rated as the higher of the two, but Jones’ off the charts performance at the NFL combine leaves some doubt.

Both players statistics were tampered in the run happy SEC. Green brings more leaping ability and straight line speed, while Jones is as physical a wide receiver as I have seen. Either player can turn a position of weakness into an area of strength for any NFL club. Both have had off the field incidents and injury concerns, but not enough to affect draft position.

The next wide receiver off the board will likely be Maryland’s Torrey Smith. Smith. Smith has decent size, 6’1″ 204, but its his 4.4 speed that has dazzled scouts. Smith brings big play skills and LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson is his only rival as a kick returner. St. Louis, Cincinnati and Baltimore have held private workouts for Smith, who figures to go late tomorrow night, or at top of second round on Friday. I feel he would be a perfect fit with the Ravens. Baltimore has aging receivers and lacked a big play threat on offense in 2010.

Jonathan Baldwin fits the prototype with measurables rivaling Green and Jones. Baldwin never took it to the next level of Pittsburgh, but that was more an indictment of the talent around him and the Panthers offense than his own shortcomings. Baldwin turning in a sub 4.5 at the combine even with size approaching that of a tight end. Baldwin made an impact as a freshman, which drew the obvious comparisons to his predecessor Larry Fitzgerald. It wouldn’t surprise if he ends up the best of the 2011 receivers, when it’s all said and done.

If looking for a tight end in this draft, two catch my attention. Notre Dame’s Kyle Rudoph and Arkansas’ D.J.Williams appear very capable of performing in a big way at the next level. Rudolph is getting first round attention despite missing most of the 2010 season with a serious hamstring injury. Rudolph is an every down tight end, while huge, 6’6″ 260 pounds, he also can move with a 4.8 forty. While Rudolph arrived in South Bend as a blue chipper, Williams climb has been a long one. After serious domestic problems at home, Williams and his mother randomly chose Fayetteville as his destination from his home state of Texas. DJ appears to be a perfect fit for those needing a combo athlete that can contribute at H-Back/Fullback and tight end.

Tomorrow, FantasySP projects the first round with our very own NFL mock draft!

NFL Draft: Running backs

According to the experts, if you are looking for a running back on Thursday, you are out of luck. Not so fast my friend!

At least one team will land a sure-fire, heavy-duty, every down back when the NFL draft commences later this week. Alabama’s Mark Ingram is that man. Detractors point to Ingram’s pedestrian time in the forty, however he was best at the combine in the ten yard burst. Why is this important? Ten yards gets Ingram into the hole and the second level on running plays.

Ingram burst upon the scene during Alabama’s 2009 National Championship run, which ultimately landed him the Heisman Trophy. There was considerable talk about Ingram being a repeat winner, however multiple factors, including injury derailed his efforts. Ingram’s overall numbers may be also been impacted by backup Trent Richardson. Richardson shared some of the work load and enters the 2011 season as arguably the top back in college football and a heavily sought after pro prospect.

While the 2011 class of running backs available is not a deep one, it is by no means bare. A pair of big backs should go off the board on Friday, at some point in the second round. Ilinois’ Mikel Leshoure exploded into the national spotlight in November at Wrigley Field. The 6’0″ 230 pounder rushing for an amazing 330 yards versus Northwestern. Leshoure’s effort was the most in a single game in Ilini history and was also the most by any back in 2010. Leshoure is sturdy enough to be an every down back, but may settle into a committee situation. Kansas State’s Daniel Thomas is next on my board at the position. Thomas has excellent size, 6’0″ 230 pounds, but a 4.6 forty time may scare some.

Virginia Tech’s Ryan Williams is in a category of his own among the elite running backs in the draft. Williams has some power, but also has game changing ability in terms of athleticism and quickness. Williams doesn’t have game breaking top end speed (4.5 forty) but has more wiggle than the big backs. Williams rushed for nearly 1700 yards in 2009, but was slowed by a hamstring injury much of last season. Had the two seasons had been reversed, we would be talking about Williams as a top ten selection.

Only two other backs seem to be destined for selection on Friday, when rounds two and three take place. Oklahoma’s DeMarco Murray was of the most heralded high school backs in the nation and delivered for the Sooners, setting school records in all-purpose yards and touchdowns in his career. Murray has both size, 5’11” 215 pounds, and speed, sub 4.4 forty at the combine, but is not a bulldozer or a true speed back at OU. Murray could have posted bigger numbers at another school, as Oklahoma spreads it around with so many weapons. Injury concerns also are part of the package when teams consider Murray. Oklahoma State’s Kendall Hunter rounds out the top of the running back list after an explosive career in Stillwater. Of the elite backs under discussion, Hunter most fits the bill of a third down, or situational back. Never count out Cowboy running backs, as Thurman can point to the great successes of his predecessors, Barry Sanders and Thurman Thomas.

No fullbacks will be drafted before the weekend. As teams at every level from Pop Warner on up move to the spread, traditional fullbacks are a dying breed. One thing is for certain, fullbacks almost never are a part of you fantasy football game plan.

Tomorrow, we will take a look at the receivers and tight ends.

NFL Draft: Quarterbacks

Have you grown as sick of hearing from ESPN’s Todd McShay and Mel Kiper Jr as I have? Since January, with increasing frequency, the dynamic duo have analysed the NFL draft every which way. They’ve rated the quarterbacks, they’ve done full 1st round mocks and the ole’ faithful top 10 list.

The favorite topic of their discussion is quarterback. Why not? It’s the sexiest position in football and the positions will sink or swim in this year’s draft. McShay and Kiper change their opinions like cheap suits. Cam was the best, then of late Gabbert seems to be the favorite flavor. Then there is my particular favorite, character. Why does Newton have bad character? Is it because schools wanted to buy him? Absolutely no proof exists that he entertained such discussion and even less that he actually took anything. Mallett’s stock, at least according to the ESPN experts, is in an absolute free fall. It seems somewhere along the testing process, Mallett acknowledged that he had smoked pot. At least he was honest, unlike some that denied ever doing so, I am sure.

The winner in the character assault has been Gabbert. The golden boy that reminds me of Ryan Leaf has seen his ESPN stock skyrocket with the attacks on the SEC boys. Is this an attack on the Southeastern conference? Its us against the world, life is tough I guess, when you are at the top. Gabbert ran almost strictly out of shotgun in a spread offense at Missouri. He lost most of the big games he played in and most importantly refused to take part in some aspects of the NFL combine. Where does Gabbert rank among the quarterbacks in Thursday’s draft? In my book, he should be either 2nd or 3rd quarterback taken. More specifically, despite the campaign from ESPN, he will be 2nd or 3rd quarterback taken…. not first.

Write it down, take it to the bank, Cam Newton is going first to the Carolina Panthers. Sure they took Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen last year, but you don’t pass on a once in a lifetime talent like Newton. Clausen was one of the most highly regarded high school quarterbacks in recent years and enjoyed great success in South Bend. Is Carolina even considering Gabbert? No. Why? Because they’re not sure he’s better than what they already have. If Cam was gone and I was in dire need of a quarterback, I would consider Mallett instead of Gabbert. Maybe its the SEC in me.

What about the rest of the quarterbacks? Sure, if we’re talking late in the 2nd round and the franchise fate isn’t relying on the pick. In my opinion, Jake Locker is the best of the rest. Reminds me somewhat of Heath Shuler, which is a bad thing, but we couldn’t have another one of him could we? Taking Locker in the 2nd round isn’t as painful as the Redskins taking the Congressman with the 3rd overall pick in the 1994 draft. I am convinced that the Shuler pick and the subsequent Michael Westbrook selection with the 4th overall pick the following year put Norv Turner in a hole too deep to ever recover from. Next Troy Aikman and Michael Irvin? Hardly.

What left? Andy Dalton from TCU? West Coast guy -which is code for- has a weak arm. Led the TCU look at me campaign. Again probably the SEC in me. Christian Ponder? Never delivered up to potential at Florida State. Why now? Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick? Small school competition leaves a big question mark in my mind. I know, it’s an SEC thing. I could see New England with one of its twenty picks, or whatever they have stockpiled, taking a chance, or Indianapolis. Need to start grooming the replacements for Tom Brady and Peyton Manning right? Since they are both going to play as long as Favre did, you have room to miss.

Next, we will review the running back candidates.