Tom Blaz – Page 6 – FantasySP Blog

Closer Update

Many auctions and drafts are won by identifying cheap saves. For many bullpens, its a guessing game when baseball moves from spring training in Florida and Arizona into the long six month regular season.

There are the “sure things”, the old veterans and the young upstarts. There are also the dreaded bullpens by committee. While things will certainly change, we have already seen some trends that may be lasting in less than a week of play.

We start with the elite that appear to remain safe. Jonathan Papelbon remains reliable with Daniel Bard and Bobby Jenks simply setting up. Matt Thornton will thrive in his new found closer role with Chris Sale better served as a starter, for now. Chris Perez is the real deal in Cleveland and should be a target if you can get him via trade. He isn’t as sexy as the other sure things and will come much cheaper. Joakim Soria struggled last night, but is as solid as there is and numbers could sky rocket if traded to a contender. Go ahead and take any question marks or red flags away from Joe Nathan, while Matt Capps value drops to middle man status. Will Mariano Rivera ever slow down, doesn’t seem anywhere on the horizon. Neftali Perez is the must keep or must get, nasty stuff with the only drawback a potential conversion to starter.

Over in the National League, any question marks surrounding Jonathan Broxton may be removed. Broxton struggled in the second half of 2010, but new skipper Don Mattingly has all the confidence in the world in the big guy. Add Heath Bell to the sure thing list, like Soria in the AL, his numbers could improve drastically with a trading deadline move. Carlos Marmol looks to add to his breakout season of a year ago, throwing smoke and getting it done. Francisco Rodriguez will return to elite status this season. Last season was simply a hiccup, you are safe with K-Rod. Brian Wilson has returned from the disabled list, and while very solid, overvalued due to the hype. If you have him, trade him once he gets going as you can demand more than he is worth. Despite some early bumps, Ryan Franklin is not threatened in St.Louis.

Jordan Walden leads the lists of emerging closers. Walden came up at the end of last season and showed why he was such a high draft choice. Walden has starter ability but for now appears to be “the man” in Anaheim. Craig Kimbrel with a pair of early saves appears ready to deliver on the hype, but Jonny Venters will steal a few. Houston Street had some bumps last season, but three early saves appear to have him back on the safe list. John Axford is new on the scene, while having promise, keep a close eye on his progress. Joel Hanrahan has delivered with four early saves, he throws very hard, with his only drawbacks, a lack of wins to support and a potential trade to a contender, where he might setup. JJ Putz returns to prominence, he has the stuff to get it done. Andrew Bailey is new enough for discussion as emerging, but first he needs to emerge from the DL. I’m going to sing the Jake McGee praise, Kyle Farnsworth has the job for now, but there is a reason he has been with practically every team in baseball.

Ah, the questions marks, the area you don’t want your closers to be discussed. We start in Cincinnati where Aroldis Chapman is lurking behind Francisco Cordero. Washington has no idea who its man is, Drew Storen figured to have the edge but hasn’t been reliable. Brad Lidge’s injury has Jose Contreras and Ryan Madson the candidates, I am still not comfortable with either. Brandon Lyon appears to have a solid hold, but he is scary, with Leo Nunez in the same boat. Kevin Gregg may split opportunities with Koji Uehara. Jose Valverde is very similar to Cordero in my book, his advantage is he doesn’t have Chapman looking over his shoulder. Frank Francisco is supposed to be “the guy” but his injuries have 6’11” Jon Rauch getting the looks, for now. Injuries have also propelled Brandon League into the closer role, but that may change to committee.

If you are were on target with saves, now is the time to move them, if you are short, you may want to consider bagging the category before opening up other problems by overpaying for a closer.

Are the Orioles for real?

Are the Baltimore Orioles back? A 4-0 start has fans buzzing!

It started with the surprising three game sweep of the Rays at Tropicana Field. Sure, Tampa isn’t the same team with the departure of Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena and Matt Garza. Throw in third baseman Evan Longoria on the disabled list and not much Devil remains.

The Orioles returned to Baltimore for their home opener and kept it going. A sold out Camden Yards on hand to watch the Detroit Tigers go down.

Thus far, the O’s have been doing it with pitching, something Baltimore has plenty of. As we told you in our draft previews, their starting pitching is loaded with potential breakout fantasy players. So far, the team ERA is 1.00! Opening Day starter Jeremy Guthrie who got things going with a gem is in the hospital with pneumonia, but he set the bar. Allowing only one run in each of their first four games, the Orioles become only the 2nd team in American League history to achieve such.

Brian Matusz, thought by many to be the best O’s starter, went down with injury, no problem. Enter Zach Britton who looked Great! Get it…. Great Britton? Also dominating from the hill, fellow “Young Guns” Jake Arrieta and Chris Tillman.

The Orioles are also getting timely hitting, led by Brian Roberts. The speedy second baseman bouncing back from an injury plagued 2010 campaign. Outfielder Nick Markakis is also getting it done early, both at the plate and with his glove. While the return of Roberts is huge, the Orioles are hoping for huge numbers from catcher Matt Wieters. The most hyped backstop entering the 2010 season, Wieters disappointed but appears to have taken the next step. Throw in exciting center fielder Adam Jones and left fielder Luke Scott and the Birds have more than enough hitting to support the emerging aces.

Can Baltimore keep it going? Off season pickups of veterans Vladimir Guerrero, JJ Hardy, Derek Lee and Mark Reynolds are providing leadership and experience in the club house. There is also help down on the farm. Minor league play begins on Thursday, with the O’s Triple A affiliate in Norfolk with three hitters destined for the Yard this summer. First baseman Brandon Snyder, Third baseman Josh Bell and outfielder Nolan Reimold all figure in the Orioles plans. Troy Patton is ready and waiting should they need another arm. Staying in the minors, watch the progress of shortstop Manny Machado, the O’s top pick in the 2010 amateur draft is going to be a great one someday.

The overwhelming reason the Orioles are back? Manager Buck Showalter. Since departing his gig on ESPN’s Baseball Tonight, Buck has the best record (38-23) over the last 61 games since he took the helm in August. Yes, better than Boston, the Yankees, Toronto and Tampa as well. Projected out over a 162 game season, Baltimore would win 101 games! With New York and Texas up next, we shall soon find out.

The Butler did it!

The college basketball season comes to a close tonight with the National title game at Reliant Stadium in Houston, Texas. The entire basketball world will be watching as the NBA takes the night off to enjoy.

The tournament has been filled with nothing but surprises and I am finally relenting and going to go with one myself and the Butler Bulldogs. I have been most impressed by Head Coach Brad Stevens. Is there a better coach in the game? It was a shocker last season when Butler made it to the title game and almost knocked off Duke. When star forward Gordon Hayward departed early for the NBA there was no chance they could make it back to the tourney, much less the Final Four and beyond. Wrong. Even more impressive with Stevens is his humble approach to the game. This was never more apparent than when Stevens was side by side with Virginia Commonwealth coach Shaka Smart. Smart is one of the cockiest coaches around and I think many like myself were pleased to see Butler put an end to that. What will be the difference tonight? Bulldog big man Matt Howard. Is there a scrappier, harder working player around? Howard reminds me of former Lakers forward Kurt Rambis, only with a better offensive game. Howard doesn’t fit the NBA prototype, but any coach will tell you he has a future in the Association. If Howard can avoid foul trouble, look for Final Four MVP honors for the big guy.

It would be easy for me to pick Connecticut. The Huskies come from the vaunted Big East and have found a way to win over the past three weeks. Every game was a must for U Conn as a loss anywhere along the way would have ended their run. It started with the five wins in as many days at Madison Square Garden. But Connecticut was willed to victory by Kemba Walker. Tonight could also be the end for legendary Jim Calhoun. A title would be his third and put him in the rarified air with Coach K, Bobby Knight, Adolph Rupp and John Wooden. Connecticut was hit with suspensions in February for recruiting violations by Calhoun. He will be suspended from the first three Big East conference games next season with a reduction in scholarships as well. If U Conn wins tonight, what better time for Calhoun to step down. U Conn has long played the AAU recruiting game, something that has become the norm across the game. AAU coaches have become “agents” for players and want preferential treatment from programs to have their star players considered for scholarships. Few refuse to take part, one of which is Maryland coach Gary Williams, but that’s another story in itself.

The story lines in the 2010-2011 were many. Kentucky again rolling out a new crop of true freshman for a “one and done” season. The job John Calipari has done recruiting is amazing. Looking at the 2009-2011 recruiting classes, the Wildcats have landed a dozen 5-stars and four 4-stars according to Rivals. There are conference’s that don’t bring in that kind of talent over decades. There are rumblings that Calipari may also have coached his last college games, for now. He will be courted by every NBA team with an opening, like Nick Saban, Calipari still wants to prove he can get it done in the pro game.

The other big story line of the season BYU’s Jimmer Fredette. Jimmer arrived on the radar a season ago, then took it to another level this season. Perhaps the next “great white hope” Fredette takes the perimeter game to another level, not only in distance but in quickness of release. Its unfortunate we may never see Jimmer play another college game as he too appears NBA bound. Many will be interested, but the home state Utah Jazz have a particular need at the position and covet the potential to put “butts in the seats”.

Everything will be final when CBS shares “one shining moment” following the game, one of the great traditions in sports broadcasting.

Final Four…. and more

Wow, what a tournament it has been. Upsets galore, bracket busting of epic proportions and we had the chance to watch all of it, in its entirety. A big thumbs up for the new television deal which brought in the Turner family of networks in early rounds enabling every March Madness game to be shown in its entirety, available to everyone (with cable). How improbable are the Final Four teams meeting Saturday night at Houston’s Reliant Stadium? ESPN’s bracket contest with nearly six million entries had only two that called the National Semi Finals dead on. If you are trying to make up for tournament losses, Kentucky is the favorite in Las Vegas at 8-5; VCU is the long shot at 7-1.

The underdogs tip it off first, with #11 Virginia Commonwealth and #8 Butler scheduled for a 609pm (EST). Butler making an improbable return to the Final Four, especially after losing its best player, Gordon Hayward, early to the NBA. Butler looked like anything BUT a repeat candidate early on, with a 6-5 record in the Horizon Conference. The Bulldogs will rely on the inside/outside game of Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack and stubborn defense. VCU was a “bubble team”, which was targeted by the Alabama’s, Colorado’s and Virginia Tech’s of the world as being undeserving. The Rams appeared to be fading after a solid season, losing their last four conference games. VCU is led by big time forward Jamie Skeen who transferred to Richmond from Wake Forest and exciting point guard Joey Rodriguez.

#4 Kentucky and #3 Connecticut will tip immediately following, scheduled for 849pm. The Wildcats represent the old “blue blood” tradition with their 14^th appearance in the National Semifinals. Connecticut looks to save face for the Big East conference which sent a record shattering eleven teams to the March Madness field. UConn also features the most exciting player left standing, Kemba Walker, who has led the Huskies to nine wins in 19 days beginning with the Big East tournament. While considered the “old guard” of the Final Four, the Wildcats are anything but that. UK lost five players to the NBA draft from last season. “New” freshman lead Kentucky, guard Brandon Knight and forward Terrence Jones, both strong candidates to be “one and done”.

Not to be outdone, the Connecticut Lady Huskies are also in the Final Four. The ladies semifinals and finals taking place in Indianapolis, one day behind the men. While the men’s tournament saw all #1 and #2 seeds go down, the ladies saw the elite survive. Sunday at 7pm its #2 Texas A&M taking on #1 Stanford, followed by #1 UConn and #2 Notre Dame with the winners meeting Tuesday night for the championship.

I would like to gladly pass along that Wichita State won the NIT championship last night, beating Alabama 66-57 at Madison Square Garden. Shocker guard Graham Hatch was awarded tourney MVP. Any time I can bring bad news from the campus of our arch rival Crimson Tide, I cherish the moment.

A champion has been crowned in the CIT post season tournament as Santa Clara defeated Iona in the championship game on Wednesday night. Tonight, it’s the third and deciding game in the CBI tournament. Creighton at Oregon are tied at a game apiece in their unique “best of” format.

Finally, we save the best for last. Last night the annual NCAA slam dunk and three point challenges were held as part of the Final Four festivities in Houston, Texas. Andrew Goudelock from College of Charleston defeated Chris Warren of Ole Miss to win the long range shooting competition. Goudelock converting 60 shots in the three rounds for the victory. The big news came from the slam dunk competition, where a 5’10 white kid with a 50”vertical took home the prize! Here’s a look at Jacob Tucker from Illinois College.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6UzKptKPg0

Enjoy you weekend with the Final Four, then the National Championship game on Monday night!

MLB: National League Pitchers

There was a time when my entire pitching strategy was to take National League pitchers when competing in a mixed league. One of the reasons remains legit; they don’t have to face the designated hitter. It used to be the NL parks were also more pitcher friendly, and while some remain, others like Minute Made Park have replaced cavernous old parks like the Astrodome. As we have with each position, we will break down the different tiers. Several elite starters are already out for the season and are addressed later. St.Louis’ Chris Carpenter and the Philadelphia big four of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels are at the top. The next tier are top tandems from four teams that figure to compete for division crowns in ’11. Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain of the World Champion Giants, Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley from LA, Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson of Atlanta and Milwaukee’s Zac Grienke and Yovani Gollardo. A trio of “young guns” continue to make their mark; Florida’s Josh Johnson, Colorado’s Ubaldo Jiminez and Arizona’s Daniel Hudson. If you can end up with any combination of these, you should be on your way. Youngsters for your consideration; San Francisco’s Madison Bumgarner, Colorado’s Jholys Chacin, Arizona’s Ian Kennedy and Washington’s Jordan Zimmerman.

When figuring out your budget, allocate at least 60% for hitting, leaving 40% for pitching. I would recommend making sure you get saves with that 40% first, then getting best pitching available with what’s left. With that in mind, no $20+ starters should be on your roster. From a draft perspective, certainly none in your first five picks. Just my opinion, pitching is too volatile.

How do you handle closers? Much depends on your league’s categories. If you are in a standard roto league then they are quite valuable. 5×5 leagues which include strikeouts as a category put more emphasis on the starter. There are more question marks than in recent memory when looking at bullpens. I really can’t say anyone is a sure thing. New York’s Francisco Rodriguez, LA’s Jonathan Broxton, Chicago’s Carlos Marmol, San Diego’s Heath Bell and San Francisco’s Brian Wilson appear to be the most reliable. All, with the possible exception of Bell, have questions marks entering 2011. An older trio appear to be in the next tier; Cincinnati’s Francisco Cordero, Arizona’s JJ Putz and Ryan Franklin of St.Louis. Those three may come at good value. Also to keep an eye on, three relative newcomers on the scene; Atlanta’s fire balling Craig Kimbrel, Pittsburgh’s Joel Hanrahan and Washington’s Drew Storen. Four setup men should also be on your radar, they will pick up lots of wins, an occasional save and often are next in line if a change is made at closer. Washington’s Tyler Clippard, San Diego’s Mike Adams, Cincinnati flamethrower Aroldis Chapman and Atlanta’s Jonny Venters fit that bill.

A number of pitchers will begin the season on the disabled list. You will need to bid accordingly, then also plan for a replacement in their place until they heal. The premiere hurlers that will begin on the shelf include: New York’s Johan Santana, San Diego’s Matt Latos, Kansas City’s Zac Grienke, Cincinnati’s Johnny Cueto and closers Wilson of San Francisco and Philadelphia’s Brad Lidge.

If you are in a keeper league, there are a number of injured studs you may want to set money aside for. If Stephen Strasburg is available, grab him, worst case he is throwing smoke in Spring training 2012. Adam Wainwright is another long term option. While he won’t contribute this year, he should be returning early next season.

PLAY BALL!