Category: MLB

Ubaldo Watch

Ubaldo Jimenez has gained some serious steam in the fantasy world but is he a safe fantasy option or will he blow up your ratios?

Analysis: The bad news is that Ubaldo got touched up for six earned runs Wednesday against the Detroit Tigers. The good news is that up until last night he started four consecutive games and did not allow more than two earned runs in those four starts. So what is going on here?

Ubaldo’s ERA is north of six, there is no getting away from that. On a positive note he is striking out over nine batters per nine innings pitched. His xFIP is south of 4.00 which does come as a surprise. But we must consider that Ubaldo’s fastball velocity is taking a hit for the fourth straight year. Ubaldo’s HR/FB rate will fall(second worst in baseball and well above his career average) and his strand rate should tick up a bit which means a lower ERA. However, there doesn’t seem to be enough of a reward with Ubaldo as opposed to the risk- nine starts, three of which he has allowed six plus earned runs.

Let The Profar Hype Begin

With Ian Kinsler heading to the disabled list the top prospect in baseball will start his second stint in the majors.

Analysis: Jurickson Profar may be the top prospect but he won’t be lighting the league on fire like many are projecting. This year in Triple-A Profar’s line looks like this- .278 batting average, 4 home runs and 6 stolen bases in 166 plate appearances. That is a solid line but remember that last year in the bigs there was not enough of a sample size- 3 hits in 17 plate appearances.

Currently, the twenty year old Profar is available in 60-90% of fantasy leagues. He makes a fine lower tier power/speed combo and he should post a mediocre batting average in the .250 plus range. He is by no means a fantasy savior but he will at least in the short term get a chance to make a statement. He makes a better sell high option because fantasy owners these days love new shiny things as they quickly disregard guys who always have the numbers by the end of each season like Alfonso Soriano and Rickie Weeks.

Last Call On Francisco Liriano

Francisco Liriano is two starts into his 2013 season and he has been impressive.

Analysis: Through two starts Lirano has posted a 1.64 ERA with 16 strikeouts in 11.0 innings pitched. Liriano’s fastball and slider velocity early on has been fine and he seems to be healthy and ready to make an impact. We all know that he has been inconsistent over the past few years but the high strikeout rate should give owners confidence. He has sported a K/9 rate over 9.4 two of his last three years so the strikeouts should be there especially in the National League. It is worth mentioning that Liriano pitched lights out in three Triple-A starts prior to his debut on May 11.

The twenty-nine year old lefty is available in 40-60% of fantasy leagues. His next scheduled start is against the Chicago Cubs on May 22.

Owners do have to be aware that Liriano has allowed 17 baserunners in his 11.0 innings pitched giving him a 1.55 WHIP. His strand rate is 18% above his career average thus far so expect a high strikeout, moderate ERA, high WHIP lower tier fantasy starter going forward.

Stock Rising- Domonic Brown

Domonic Brown has 8 hits, 4 RBI, 1 home run and 3 runs over his last five games.

Analysis: Domonic Brown now has 7 home runs and 19 RBI this year making himself fantasy relevant for the first time in his career. His 7 bombs rank 14th most among all major league outfielders, his 19 RBI is 21st among outfielders. Brown’s biggest detriment to his fantasy game was always his batting average. This year he’s hitting a respectable .257 with a sub .280 BABIP, which means it could get better. He’s not walking at a higher clip nor is he striking out less… so what is the difference this year? Well, Brown is finally hitting lefties with consistency.

The twenty-five year old Brown is available in 30-70% of fantasy leagues nationwide. He won’t sustain his home run pace of 30 that he is currently on track for this year but you can expect around 20-25 by season’s end. He has yet to record a stolen base in 2013 but he has recorded 20 stolen bases over the last two years between the minors and majors. His stock is on the rise but he must contribute with his legs before he becomes a must own.

Under The Radar- James Loney

James Loney is the 13th rated roto first baseman this year but somehow he continues to fly under the fantasy radar.

Analysis: Loney is hitting .371 with 2 HR, 19 RBI, 15 R and 2 SB this year. The batting average should not come as a surprise, Loney has hit over .280 in five of his seven years in the majors. He may not be a home run hitter but he does still produce enough for a fantasy first baseman. He’ll contribute a bit in the steals department but his biggest asset is his contact rate. Loney is making contact with 91.8% of pitches he swings at, good for 7th in baseball this year. His 9.8% strikeout rate is the 12th lowest in baseball.

Loney’s BABIP is well above his career mark so expect him to hit around his career average of .285 going forward. He’s seeing tons of RBI opportunities hitting fifth behind Evan Longoria and you have to love that he puts the ball in play so often. Loney is available in 70-80% of fantasy leagues and if you can afford to sacrifice some home runs in exchange for batting average then he makes a fine lower tier first baseman.