Category: MLB

Selling High- Jake Westbrook

Jake Westbrook has been a hot commodity on the wire over the past week but the time to sell is now.

Analysis: Westbrook is sporting a 1.62 ERA this year which is good for seventh best in baseball. This is where the positives end.

Now it’s time to list off the negatives rapid fire style. Westbrook’s WHIP is 1.46, which is tied with Roy Halladay for 85th in baseball. Westbrook only has 19 strikeouts in 39.0 innings pitched, that doesn’t cut it in the fantasy baseball world. His walk rate is the highest since his rookie year in 2000 when he only logged 6.2 innings of work. His 89.6% strand rate is 20% above his career average. His HR/FB rate is 0.0% this year, his career average is 11.5%. Westbrook has not recorded a sub 3.90 ERA season since 2008 when he only pitched in 34.2 innings.

Do you see where I’m going with this… it is time to sell now. He’s still available in a few leagues but take advantage of the hype and his low ERA, sell now and sell high. As soon as he gets beat up in a start his value will go back in the trash can… it’s time to capitalize on nearsighted owners.

Sticking With Melky?

Melky Cabrera is being dropped from leagues across the country, so… should you stick with him?

Analysis: Melky is hitting .258 this year with 1 home run and 2 stolen bases. Obviously there is room for improvement but his last few games have been impressive. Melky has compiled 7 hits, 1 home run and 3 RBI in his last four games. He still offers a lower tier power/speed combo that will be valuable going forward considering his batting average will rise. Cabrera’s BABIP this year is 15 points below his career average and 50 points below his BABIP over his last two years.

There are a few negatives here. Melky’s isolated power is significantly down from his career average. He’s also striking out at a 16% clip which is the highest of his career but keep in mind the small sample size and the fact that 16% isn’t all that bad to begin with. A once universally owned outfielder is now available in 12-20% of fantasy leagues. No one quite knows what to make of Melky thus far but he has been a valuable fantasy option three of his last four years in baseball. Hope for the best in regards to his power numbers and bank on the average and stolen bases becoming an asset.

Last Call On Kyle Kendrick

After allowing five earned runs in his first start of the season, Kyle Kendrick has not allowed more than two earned runs in a start since.

Analysis: Kyle Kendrick is sporting a 2.43 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP and has 29 Ks over 40.2 innings pitched. He’s currently the 28th ranked roto pitcher six starts into his season. The advanced stats seem to support the theory that Kendrick has finally turned the corner into a reliable fantasy starter. He has a 3.66 xFIP thus far this season while at no point in his career has he posted an xFIP under 4.00. His walks are down and his velocity is up slightly from previous years.

There are a few red flags here but nothing too serious. His strand rate is an unsustainable 86.6%, his career average is 73.1%. Batters are making contact at an 85.9% clip when swinging at Kendrick’s pitches which is right in line with his career average. That 85.9% is 14th most in all of baseball. There are some good pitchers with high contact rates but Kendrick is by no means a “very good” fantasy starter. He makes a better sell high option but I can understand stashing him on your squad for pitching depth.

Solid Catchers Still Available

Catchers are almost always overlooked in fantasy baseball but they can provide valuable production.

Analysis: Russell Martin now has 6 home runs this year which is fourth among major league catchers while his 13 runs scored rank third among catchers. Martin has also averaged 7 stolen bases over the last three years so he will contribute a bit in the steals department. Currently, Martin is the sixth ranked roto catcher ahead of some big time names. The long time Dodger and former Yankee is available in 50-70% of leagues nationwide.

Another interesting option especially in deeper leagues is Salvador Perez. He’s still just twenty-two years old but he has tons of potential. He hit .301 with 11 bombs last year for the Royals in just 76 games. He’s hit for a high average throughout his minor league career and he’s poised to become a fantasy force soon. His 20.2% strikeout rate this year is concerning considering his highest K rate in the minors was just 12%. This year Perez is hitting a respectable .278 with 1 home run but he has to see more pitches/walk more(1 BB in 90 AB). His power should surface, expect at least ten homers by season’s end. His stock has been taking a hit recently but he does have 8 hits over his last seven games.

Buying Low- Aoki

Norichika Aoki’s batting average has dipped 100 points over the past two weeks but he remains a solid fantasy outfielder.

Analysis: Aoki is batting .250 this year but considering his BABIP is sitting in the .250 range it isn’t that bad. His walk rate is up from last year, his strikeouts are down and he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside of the strike zone this year(16.8%). His strikeout rate of 7.5% does really stand out, it ranks sixth in baseball among qualified batters. This is a recipe for success and Aoki’s batting average will reap the benefits eventually.

We cannot ignore that Aoki has 3 home runs, 4 stolen bases and 14 runs scored in the month of April. He continues to lead off in front of Jean Segura and Ryan Braun… so things could be worse for a guy who has been a bit unlucky over the last few weeks in regards to his BABIP. As it stands now Aoki has been dropped in 10-15% of leagues across the country but patience in this case is required. He’s not struggling at the plate and he’s still producing… so why is he being dropped?

This is where fantasy baseball is these days- Aoki is being dropped while guys like Endy Chavez and David DeJesus are being picked up.