Category: MLB

Buying Low- Adam Lind

Adam Lind’s bat is heating up as injuries abound at all positions in baseball right now.

Analysis: Adam Lind amassed 8 hits, 1 HR and 3 runs in three games against the San Diego Padres over the weekend. Two of those games were extra inning games but he has his batting average up to .323 now which is all that really matters. His strikeout rate this year is the lowest of his career. Lind is also walking at a career high 13.5% clip. His .410 OBP is 8th in baseball among batters with at least 150 plate appearances. He is a power bat but he only has 5 bombs so far in 44 games this year which isn’t that bad for a guy with first base and DH position eligibility.

At the moment Lind is available in 70-90% of fantasy leagues. He is just a few years removed from a 35 home run campaign and has hit at least 23 home runs in three of the last four years. We must acknowledge that his high BABIP has inflated his batting average and that he should hit in the .270-280 range going forward but his power should be on its way.

Passing On Jason Hammel

Jason Hammel has been one of the most picked up starters on the wire over the last week despite his lack of fantasy value.

Analysis: Jason Hammel is sporting a 5.43 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. His xFIP is north of 4.60 and his strand rate this year is on par with his career average. There is not one stat or metric that could make anyone believe he will get significantly better. However, he does have 7 wins this year which is the 6th most in baseball. Wins are unreliable and hard to project as well as run support in any given game. Despite that Hammel is on pace to win 20 games this year so it should not come as a surprise that awful fantasy owners are picking him up.

Hammel is available in 30-70% of fantasy leagues which is shocking considering his poor performances this year. He was not reliable in Colorado and he is not reliable now. He’s actually the 101st rated fantasy starter this year. His 1.51 WHIP is 95th in baseball and his 5.43 ERA is 97th and 0.6 higher than Ubaldo Jimenez and his 4.83 ERA.

Ervin Being Ervin

Ervin Santana has burned more than a few fantasy owners over the years but is he still worth the risk?

Analysis: Ervin Santana is one of the more heavily dropped starters these days. He’s allowed nine earned runs over his last two starts and fantasy owners are seeking shelter from the erratic ratio bombing righty. However, he still may be of use.

Santana’s ERA is still south of 3.50 through 70.1 innings. His xFIP is 3.54 and his walk rate is the lowest of his career. His strikeout rate is his highest since 2008 and his HR/FB rate is well above his career average. Even Ervin’s velocity is fine but we must consider that his two most recent starts have come against good offensive teams(Cards/Angels) which does play a part in the nine earned runs over those starts.

Can Ervin Santana be trusted? Not really, but he is sporting a solid ERA and a 1.09 WHIP which is 24th best in baseball. Santana is available in 15-40% of leagues and that number is growing. We may know a bit more after Ervin’s performance Sunday in Texas but probably not. Keep in mind that the Rangers can mash and that Yu Darvish is pitching Sunday as well.

Jason Castro Is Surging

Jason Castro has been stuffing the stat sheet lately but he still isn’t getting much love as a fantasy catcher on the worst team in the American League.

Analysis: Over the last two weeks Jason Castro is the second best roto catcher. He has 3 home runs, 5 RBI, 7 runs and 14 hits over his last eight games. He now has his batting average up to .284 with a .335 OBP. Castro is also hitting third in the Houston batting order which means his run and RBI totals should fair better than guys like Nick Hundley and Chris Iannetta. Despite his recent hot streak Castro is available in 60-90% of fantasy leagues. He is currently the 11th rated roto catcher in 2013 which means he’s fine in deeper leagues, two-catcher formats and AL-only leagues. His BABIP will come down a bit and cool off his batting average some but he has every opportunity and enough power to stay fantasy relevant.

Keep in mind that Castro may gain DH position eligibility at some point in the future which means greater fantasy roster flexibility. When you get past the top 6-8 fantasy catchers there isn’t much reliable talent out there. So, picking Castro up who hits third in the Houston batting order shouldn’t be that big of a reach.

Stock Rising- Travis Snider

Travis Snider has looked good at the plate over the last few weeks hitting second in the Pittsburgh Pirate’s lineup.

Analysis: The best place that Travis Snider can be… he is, sandwiched between Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen in the Pirate batting order. Snider has 2 home runs, 8 RBI, 5 runs and 1 stolen base over his last ten games. We have to remember that Snider is still just twenty-five years old and that he has plenty of power potential. Most of that potential is against right handed pitching but he has it nonetheless.

At the moment Snider is available in 92-99% of fantasy leagues. He may not even be a deep league or NL-only league add yet but we cannot ignore what he has done with his bat recently. And we cannot ignore that his strikeout rate is at a career low level right now. He’s not a fantasy game changer but his performance over the next few weeks should be monitored. He’s in a great situation hitting second, he has the power potential and just enough speed to intrigue deep league owners. Add him to your watch list.