Category: MLB

Deep League Help- Aoki

Norichika Aoki is finally getting some valuable playing time in the Brewers outfield and he is as advertised.

Analysis: With Nyjer Morgan hitting just .233 on the year and only four extra base hits to his credit, Norichika Aoki has played very well in center and right field for the Brew Crew. Aoki actually has seven more extra base hits and five more RBI than Morgan in nineteen less at-bats. Aoki is a former three time Central League batting champ in the NPB, so his .289 batting average thus far should come as no surprise. His tools do resemble Ichiro’s a bit but he does not run as much as Ichiro.

Aoki is available in ninety-nine percent of leagues and if you are in a deeper league an outfielder with his upside can be hard to come by. It still may take a few more months before Aoki is fully acclimated to MLB pitching but you have to like his small sample size thus far. Expect a batting average in the .280-.300 range, five more home runs and ten more stolen bases if he continues to get consistent playing time.

Selling High- Paul Konerko

Paul Konerko is leading the American League in batting average and is second in slugging percentage but the career .284 hitter will fall back down to earth soon.

Analysis: Konerko’s eleven home runs is not an inflated number. His HR/FB rate is just up a bit this year(19.3%) from his career average(16.9%). In fact, Konerko has averaged 34 home runs over the past two seasons, so the thirty-six year old’s power is not in question. The red flag here is the .406 BABIP which is a shocking .117 points above his career average. Konerko has not had a BABIP over .330 in his career so we cannot count on his .406 mark to hold up much longer. His strike outs are up a bit this year and his walk rate is down from his 2011 numbers, just another thing to keep an eye on.

Konerko is a solid power bat who is not slowing down despite his age. His power is stable and he is one durable guy but he will be lucky to finish with a batting average over .310 this year. If you are one of those owners who are constantly trying to improve your team then you have to think about selling the veteran especially when considering the amount of injuries to power bats that are out there at the moment. Konerko is good, just not this good.

Selling High- Melky Cabrera

Melky Cabrera is leading the National League in hitting with a .374 batting average but it will not last for long.

Analysis: Melky Cabrera’s .415 BABIP is the fourth highest in all of baseball and is .108 points above his career average. Thus, he’s due for a big drop off. Cabrera’s walk and strikeout rates this year are virtually identical to his career averages so he isn’t improving in those areas. He is coming off of a career year which saw him hit .305 with 18 HR, 102 R and 87 RBI for the Royals. However, 2011 was a bit inflated as well. His BABIP was still .25 points above his career average and it was his only season as a professional that he has hit over .280. Cabrera’s power is peaking, I’ll give you that but he isn’t a .310-.320 type of hitter. He does just about all of his damage off of fastballs and he’s still swinging at too many balls outside of the strike zone(32.3%).

The Melk Man’s fantasy value will not get any higher and now is the perfect time to capitalize on those owners who just cannot resist the flavor of the week. Expect a .290 batting average going forward to go along with eight to ten more home runs and ten steals.

Dexter Fowler Is Going Fast

If Dexter Fowler is available in your fantasy league you must pick him up now.

Analysis: Dexter Fowler is playing the best baseball of his career and his numbers are reflecting it. Fowler has three bombs, two steals and twelve runs in his last six games. He already has eight home runs to go along with five stolen bases and a 20/20 season is within reach for the twenty-six year old. Fowler is available in a little less than half of fantasy leagues but he is one hot commodity at the moment. He really isn’t just a “sell high” guy here, he will be producing from here on out.

Keep in mind that all eight of his homers this year have come when he’s batted left handed. He’s absolutely murdering right handed pitchers to the tune of a .329 BA and a .718 SLG%. Like Carlos Gonzalez he does most of his damage at home but who really cares if he is producing and growing? In daily lineups you can maximize Fowler by starting him when he’s playing at Coors Field or against right handed pitchers.

Deep League Help- Everth Cabrera

The San Diego Padres are even more committed to the future and that future has Everth Cabrera playing in the middle infield.

Analysis: Although Everth Cabrera has played a bit in the three previous seasons for the Padres, his career .237 batting average has prevented him from being a mainstay in the bigs. Cabrera rectified his batting average issues in Triple-A last year hitting .297 and .333 this year until his callup in mid May. After a rather lengthy slump Cabrera is on fire at the moment, well… at least for him. Everth has three steals, one home run and five hits in his last three games. He has also raised his batting average over .150 points in the last week to a somewhat respectable .245.

Cabrera has stolen 41 bags in 194 big league games, which translates to big numbers if he can keep hitting. He still strikes out entirely too much and cannot draw a walk but the playing time will be there for him to grow this year. Going forward, Everth remains a solid deep league middle infielder and is available in ninety-nine percent of fantasy leagues. As soon as his spot in the batting order settles, his run total may become an asset to his fantasy game.