Category: MLB

Last Call On Mike Trout

Mike Trout is back in the big leagues once again and hopefully he can make it stick this time.

Analysis: Mike Trout is two games into his return to the Angels and his situation still is not entirely clear. He has been leading off but will likely split some time with Peter Bourjos and Vernon Wells. On the negative side of things, Trout did only hit .220 last year in 123 at-bats. However, the kid is still just twenty years old. He is an extremely toolsy outfielder and a 20 HR/40 SB season from him is only a few years away. Trout is just too good for the minors at this point in his career. In Double-A last year Trout hit .326 with 33 stolen bases and 11 home runs in just ninety-one games. This year in Triple-A Trout has posted a .403 batting average with six swipes.

Mike Trout is already owned in about half of fantasy leagues and his stock is rising. He does make a fine sell high candidate here especially if he cannot lower his strikeout rate. Keep in mind that there still is the possibility of limited playing time in his case.

Selling High- Carlos Beltran

Carlos Beltran has been on fire in St. Louis this year but expect him to cool off sooner or later.

Analysis: We can start with Carlos Beltran’s health issues. He’s only played in over 90 games in a season just once(2011) in the last three years. Secondly, let’s take a look at his stolen base totals. Beltran has stolen a total of seven bases in 206 games over the past two years but he already has three in just sixteen games this year. All signs point to selling high here, his thirty-four year old legs just are not what they used to be and when he reaches the 300 career stolen base mark…. expect him to stop running. Beltran is also striking out at over a 20% clip this year, something he has never done in his career. Beltran’s HR/FB rate is nearly at 30% in 2012, his career average sits at 15%. So those five home runs he has thus far are indeed inflated just a bit.

The time to sell the aging outfielder is now. The .279 batting average, 5 home runs and 3 stolen bases are great but as the season wears on Beltran he will not be able to sustain his current level of play/luck.

Deep League Help- Carlos Gomez

Carlos Gomez is not playing every day for the Brewers but if he can keep up his solid play things will change.

Analysis: In just twenty-nine at-bats this year, Carlos Gomez has stolen five bases. But the big surprise here is the .345 batting average thus far. He isn’t a must add at the moment but in deeper leagues you just have to keep an eye on the twenty-six year old burner. The Brewers are deep in the outfield so his playing time will be limited but five stolen bases in twenty-nine at-bats is impressive regardless. If Carlos Gomez can keep hitting he will push Morgan and Aoki for at-bats. We also cannot forget that Corey Hart is never a lock to be healthy for a full big league season in right field either.

Gomez is owned in just one percent of fantasy leagues and it will be quite awhile before he catches anyone’s eye. For now Gomez remains seventh in all of baseball in stolen bases and is batting a solid .345. Perhaps the biggest indicator of his turnaround may be the one strikeout in those twenty-nine at-bats, absolutely great for a guy with a career 22.1 K%.

Last Call On Vance Worley

Vance Worley now has two impressive outings in three starts for the Philadelphia Phillies this year. In 19.0 innings of work Vance has a 1-1 record with a 2.37 ERA and 21 K’s.

Analysis: Worley was a huge surprise last year after posting an 11-3 record with a 3.01 ERA. Flash forward to this year and you have yourself a legit right hander. Despite some questions concerning Worley’s game he did sport a 3.32 FIP in over 130 innings in 2011. His fastball may top out at 91-92 MPH but his slider and curve give him three plus or very close to three plus pitches. Offensive support will be a problem for the righty with the injury concerns to Howard and Utley but he seems to be doing quite fine at the moment.

Vance Worley is also very consistent in the WHIP department as well, he posted a 1.23 WHIP last year. Despite not being a flamethrower, Worley still strikes out eight batters per nine innings and only walks three batters per nine. I would not expect his WHIP to finish over the 1.37 mark this year. He is still available in about half of leagues and he doesn’t give you much to dislike about his game.

Selling High- JD Martinez

JD Martinez has been lights out at the plate this year as he becomes one of the early surprises of the young baseball season.

Analysis: JD Marinez is hitting .333 at the moment with three home runs and ten RBI. He’s also hitting third in the Houston batting order behind Carlos Lee, which isn’t a bad place to be. The twenty-four year old can flat out mash, he hit over .300 all three years he was in the minors but his BABIP was unusually high. Martinez also slugged .546 in Double-A last year while hitting six bombs in 53 big league games. His future is bright and in keeper leagues I would not think to trade him, however, he will not sustain the pace he is currently on.

Martinez is primarily a fastball hitter and when teams give him a heavy dose of the breaking stuff he will struggle. He is walking at over a ten percent clip but it is early in the season. He will hit about twenty homers this year but to expect thirty bombs with a .300 plus batting average is way,way too much. The great thing about fantasy baseball is the ability to sell the hot players early and Martinez’s value will not get any higher. Happy selling.