Category: MLB

Buying Low- Alex Rios

Alex Rios has been one of the most disappointing fantasy outfielders this year but don’t bet against him in the second half of the season.

Analysis: Alex Rios’ awful season comes down to one thing completely out of his control and that thing is BABIP. Rios’ .216 BABIP is 92 points below his career average. If Alex’s BABIP was in line with his career average he would be hitting over .280 but all he can do is continue to put the ball in play and with some luck it will fall at a more consistent rate. Rios’ walk rate is in line with his career mark and his strikeout rate is actually at a career low of 10.5%. Rios is owned in just sixty percent of fantasy leagues nationwide and it’s a huge mistake to let a guy of his talent go. Against the Tigers Sunday Rios recorded his first multi hit game in over two weeks while knocking in one run and scoring another. Very few outfielders possess the power-speed combination that Rios has and if he’s available in your fantasy league snatch the slugger up.

Projection: Expect a .270 batting average, seven bombs and ten swipes in Rios’ remaining games.

Jeff Karstens is a must start fantasy pitcher

Jeff Karstens just threw his first complete-game shutout the Astros with only 83 pitches.

Analysis:  Karstens has been quietly putting together an amazing season for the first place Pirates.  He is sporting a 2.34 ERA  and 1.03 WHIP.  In his 16 games started he has 11 quality starts and has not lost in his previous 8 starts.  According to CBSSports, he is only owned in 62% of the leagues.  Why?  It takes awhile to believe in a Pirates pitcher, but this guy will lower your team ERA in roto leagues and provide you with quality starts in head 2 head leagues.  Adding him to your roster right now is a no brainer and should be starting in all leagues.

Keep An Eye On Dexter Fowler

Dexter Fowler was called up from Triple A to play center field for Carlos Goanzalez Friday night. Gonzalez is still not completely healthy with a nagging right wrist injury.

Analysis: Dexter Fowler has been on fire in Triple A recently, batting nearly at the .400 mark over the last two weeks. The tools have always been there for Fowler and it’s what makes him such an interesting fantasy player. Whether he goes back down to Triple A when CarGo gets healthy or finds himself as the Rockies fourth outfielder you have to keep an eye on Fowler. If the cards fall the right way he may have a starting job sooner than later. Fowler’s 27 stolen base rookie year was not even close to what he is capable of and it appears he has found his groove. He went 1-3 with two runs and a stolen base Friday night against the Brewers. He also recorded a walk and went without a strikeout. If Fowler can stop trying to mash the ball and cut down his strikeout rate, simply by putting the ball in play he becomes a serious weapon. Fowler does have some pop and gets tons of triples so he can be roster worthy if given consistent at bats.

Injury Update- Jose Reyes

CBSSports.com is reporting that Mets shortstop Jose Reyes may be returning to action on Monday July 18th.

Analysis: The hamstring injury is not as severe as initially thought and Reyes has been taking batting practice since the All-Star break. Reyes is having an MVP type year and is leading the National League in batting average by thirty points with a .354 average. Reyes also has thirty stolen bases on the year and a staggering fifteen triples, six more than anyone else in the bigs. Reyes is having a bit of a power outage, this year will be his lowest home run total since 2005 if you don’t count his thirty-six game year in 2009. Reyes has dropped his strikeout rate to just 6.8% this year while his career average sits at 10.7%. Reyes is also benefiting from a .375 BABIP, sixty-one points above his career average. He’s a great player and right there with Tulo and Hanley as the best fantasy shortstops around. Hanley may be having a bad year but he will absolutely out produce Asdrubal Cabrera in the second half of the season. Reyes does make a fine sell high player but he should not experience much of a drop off in his play.

Selling High- Jair Jurrjens

Jair Jurrjens may be in the conversation for the National League Cy Young but he is due to regress. His value will not get higher so it is time to sell high and I’ll tell you why.

Analysis: Jair Jurrjens may be sporting a sub two ERA but he is one of the luckiest pitchers in the bigs this year. Jurrjens’ ERA-FIP is a staggering -1.23, second “best” in the major leagues. What is also concerning is his absolutely unsustainable 84% LOB rate, once again second best in the major leagues. We can also look at Jurrjens’ BABIP against which sits at .256, fifteenth luckiest this year among all starting pitchers. Jurrjens actually has his lowest strikeout rate since his rookie year with the Tigers in 2007. All signs point to a pitcher waiting to blow up and lose tons of trade value. He’s a solid pitcher but he isn’t and will never be a SP1 in fantasy baseball.

Projection: Expect an ERA over three in Jurrjens’ remaining starts. His xFIP is actually 3.76 right now so it might get ugly, at least for him. Jurrjens is still just a three pitch pitcher and although his fastball has been great this year it still doesn’t average 90 MPH. If his command suffers just a bit due to fatigue down the stretch it won’t be pretty and don’t say I didn’t tell you so.