Category: MLB

Is Drafting Gio Gonzalez Safe?

After bouncing around from a couple of organizations, Gio Gonzalez has finally found his home with Oakland but can he continue his success from the 2010 season?

Analysis: Gio Gonzalez is definitely a mixed bag, especially in roto leagues. His bread and butter is of course his strikeouts. Gonzalez struck out 171 batters in 200 innings last year and if his minor league numbers are any indicator he should be right around 9K/9 this year. You also have to love his durability. He started 33 games last year with Oakland and started a combined 29 games between the bigs and Triple A in 2009. He does walk batters entirely too much and that does kill his WHIP. He sports a career 4.67BB/9 and his 4.13BB/9 last year was second in MLB among qualified pitchers. Gio’s ERA minues FIP was -.55 which was good for 18th among luckiest pitchers in baseball last year. His ERA was well below what it should have been and it should stay around four for the 2011 season.

Projection: Although Gonzalez pitches in a friendly park his ratios this year are due to bump up. Expect 13 wins, 190 strikeouts, 3.95 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP. If you are drafting Gonzalez as a top 45-50 pitcher and expect him to repeat his win total and ERA from last year you are mistaken. His walk rate is very concerning and his tenth best LOB rate of 78.1% last year will surely take a hit and directly affect his ERA.

Bartolo Colon a Virtual Shoe-In For Yankees Rotation

After coming into camp as a longshot on a Minor League deal, the former Cy Young Award winner has dominated this spring.

Analysis: Last night’s outing against the Rays most likely sealed the deal in the competition for the Yankees fifth starter job, a position that has come down to a dogfight with fellow veteran Freddy Garcia. It appears that young Ivan Nova has the fourth spot locked up, so the two are battling it out for the last job available. Retiring 18 of the 20 batters faced yesterday, Colon looked outstanding while racking up five strikeouts over six innings. Many of his 64 pitches thrown, 52 for strikes, were clocked in the 91-93 MPH range with a bevy of impressive changeups and cutters mixed in. Nobody is expecting Colon to return to his All-Star form, but so far his command and overall stuff has caused the Yankees brass to reminisce on the past. A 2.40 ERA to go along with 17 strikeouts and only 1 walk over 15 innings will do that.

Projection: Colon’s performance over the past two weeks has been surprising to most, including myself. You cannot argue with the results, however, and he has earned a coveted spot in the Yankees rotation. Garcia’s recent struggles have only cemented this projection even further. Although both could essentially wind up on the Opening Day roster, Garcia’s spot would be as a long man at best. Barring an injury between now and then, bet on Bartolo Colon starting every fifth day for the Yankees. The chances of him staying healthy for the entire season are somewhat slim, though, so he isn’t worth picking up too early. As a late round sleeper, however, Colon could prove to be a very valuable acquisition for your Fantasy squad during the early months of 2011.

The Very Overrated Austin Jackson

We all know how inflated Austin  Jackson’s batting average was last year but his lack of plate discipline should really concern you.

Analysis: Austin Jackson’s league leading .396 BABIP was the only reason he flirted with hitting .300 last year. In reality, Jackson is a .280-.285 hitter when considering the facts. Jackson’s BABIP will take at least a ten point hit in 2011, .396 is just unsustainable. Jackson’s 27.5% strikeout rate is cause for concern as well and looks like it’s here to stay. His Double A and Triple A K-rates averaged about 23% and he was hitting for more power. Coming in to last year there were some scouts talking about his power potential and how a 10-12 home run year was realistic. His home run total last year was 4 and his ISO was .107, to put that into perspective that’s Orlando Husdon and Starlin Castro’s ISO range. The most telling stat has to be Jackson’s .28 BB/K line which was sixth worst in MLB last year. It’s fine to have a leadoff hitter without power but one that strikes out like a power hitter and cannot draw a walk is very concerning, especially to stolen base and run totals.

Projection: Jackson is good for what he did last year minus a few batting average points and some runs. However, guys like Jose Tabata, Cameron Maybin and Dexter Fowler ALL have the potential to put up similar numbers and you can get them many rounds later in your fantasy draft.

What Does Neftali Feliz’s Change of Heart Mean for You?

After stating just a week ago that his heart was focused on closing, the Rangers fireballer pulled a complete 180 yesterday, telling reporters that his goal was to make the starting rotation out of camp.

Analysis: Talk of Feliz eventually joining Texas’s rotation began as soon as the Dominican righty hit the scene in 2009. After saving 40 games en route to a World Series berth last year, however, those rumors cooled off a bit but not for long. As soon as pitchers and catchers reported last month, speculation about the AL Rookie of the Year slotting in behind the likes of C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis heated up once again. Althouh Feliz has been absolutely dominant as a closer, the thought of him starting every fifth day is intriguing to the Rangers brass. An arm of his quality would soften the blow of losing Cliff Lee, and visions of a future ace are certainly no pipe dream. The team has not committed to this move, but they may choose to accommodate the 22-year-old’s desire to return to the role he occupied in 53 minor league starts from ’06-’09. Ron Washington’s club has more to consider, though, as Feliz is by far their best in-house closer option.

Projection: Striking out nine in as many innings so far this spring, Feliz has picked up right where he left off in October. Mixing in a newly refined cutter last week, it appears as if the Rangers phenom is attempting to widen his pitch array. If the Rangers feel comfortable with one of their other bullpen options taking over the ninth, or if GM Jon Daniels can get his hands on a more experienced stopper, then Feliz in the rotation should and will happen. While he’s bound to experience minor growing pains as a starter, the youngster’s stuff and guile alone may be enough to get him through even the rockiest of patches. Backed by a fundamentally sound defense and a prodigious lineup, Feliz would be in position to win 15 games with a 8.5-9.5 SO/9 rate. Although Fantasy owners may miss his save numbers, they’ll practically drool over his future numbers as a member of the Rangers staff.

Head for the Hill, Aaron Hill

Going into the 2010 fantasy baseball season, there were two prime breakout candidates at second base, Robinson Cano and Aaron Hill. Both players were coming off career years, and both players were worth selecting in about the 5th round. Cano went on to expand on his 2009 season, while Hill regressed, hitting below the Mendoza line with a drop of 40 RBI’s. Cano enters 2011 as a late 1st to early 2nd round pick, while Hill is available much later.

Analysis: Hill was a victim of bad luck more than anything else last season. His BABIP was .196, easily the lowest in baseball. In comparison, 110 major league players had BABIP of .290 or higher last year and only 7 were below .250.

What’s encouraging is that is the only stat that seems to be out of line for Hill’s career averages. In fact, he walked almost as many times in 2010 (41 in 528 at-bats) as he did in 2009 (42 in 682 at-bats). And despite his horrific batting average and on-base percentage, Hill hit the third-most home runs for 2nd baseman in 2010. He’s slotted to hit 5th behind Bautista and Lind, so there should be plenty of RBI opportunities.

Projection: Even if Hill raises his BABIP to the lower-end of “average”, he’ll still add 50 points to his batting average. He has elite power for his position, and with teams pitching cautiously to Jose Bautista, Hill will get every opportunity to drive in runs. As a 13th round pick, Hill will easily out-perform his draft ranking.

.265 / 31 home runs / 101 RBI’s / 91 runs / 4 steals