After bouncing around from a couple of organizations, Gio Gonzalez has finally found his home with Oakland but can he continue his success from the 2010 season?
Analysis: Gio Gonzalez is definitely a mixed bag, especially in roto leagues. His bread and butter is of course his strikeouts. Gonzalez struck out 171 batters in 200 innings last year and if his minor league numbers are any indicator he should be right around 9K/9 this year. You also have to love his durability. He started 33 games last year with Oakland and started a combined 29 games between the bigs and Triple A in 2009. He does walk batters entirely too much and that does kill his WHIP. He sports a career 4.67BB/9 and his 4.13BB/9 last year was second in MLB among qualified pitchers. Gio’s ERA minues FIP was -.55 which was good for 18th among luckiest pitchers in baseball last year. His ERA was well below what it should have been and it should stay around four for the 2011 season.
Projection: Although Gonzalez pitches in a friendly park his ratios this year are due to bump up. Expect 13 wins, 190 strikeouts, 3.95 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP. If you are drafting Gonzalez as a top 45-50 pitcher and expect him to repeat his win total and ERA from last year you are mistaken. His walk rate is very concerning and his tenth best LOB rate of 78.1% last year will surely take a hit and directly affect his ERA.