Category: MLB

Stolen Bases Breakdown

Issue: 30 hitters have 70 or more stolen bases over the last 4 seasons. We have the usual suspects stereotyped as mostly one-trick ponies with a couple of multiple category contributors thrown into the mix, but are there some wrinkles and surprises here?

Facts: 2007 to 2010

# R A N K
Player SB PA R HR RBI BA SB BA RBI HR PA
Juan Pierre 202 2294 293 2 147 .288 1 9 22 30 18
Carl Crawford 182 2433 368 53 295 .302 2 4 7 14 13
Jose Reyes 175 2297 333 41 194 .286 3 11 17 16 17
Michael Bourn 172 1930 267 11 108 .263 4 26 27 25 22
Chone Figgins 159 2454 329 10 169 .289 5 6 19 26 12
B.J. Upton 150 2424 339 62 266 .261 6 28 11 11 14
Ichiro Suzuki 148 2895 376 29 199 .332 7 1 16 17 1
Hanley Ramirez 145 2670 443 107 330 .319 8 2 3 1 4
Rajai Davis 142 1438 193 12 128 .283 9 13 24 24 26
Jacoby Ellsbury 136 1510 222 20 130 .291 10 5 22 20 25
Jimmy Rollins 136 2522 363 70 271 .270 11 23 9 10 8
Brian Roberts 132 2398 348 41 208 .288 12 9 15 15 15
Shane Victorino 132 2479 366 54 235 .281 13 19 14 13 10
Willy Taveras 127 1420 191 4 69 .266 14 26 30 29 27
Alexis Rios 107 2647 357 77 323 .281 15 19 5 7 5
Bobby Abreu 101 2717 407 71 382 .282 16 14 2 9 3
Matt Kemp 98 2303 319 82 308 .288 17 7 6 6 16
Brandon Phillips 96 2642 365 89 329 .275 18 21 4 4 6
David Wright 95 2734 403 102 406 .304 19 3 1 2 2
Ian Kinsler 95 2249 372 78 263 .279 20 20 12 5 19
Coco Crisp 93 1543 221 24 153 .269 21 22 21 19 24
Nyjer Morgan 92 1403 175 4 77 .283 22 13 29 28 29
Ryan Theriot 91 2575 318 13 166 .282 23 17 20 23 7
Scott Podsednik 89 1598 190 16 125 .287 24 11 25 22 23
Grady Sizemore 88 2136 307 75 245 .262 25 27 13 8 21
Brett Gardner 86 994 163 8 86 .268 26 24 28 27 30
Jason Bartlett 84 2163 284 24 193 .282 27 16 18 18 20
Chris Young 80 2488 318 96 286 .241 28 30 8 3 9
Johnny Damon 79 2467 376 61 267 .282 29 15 10 12 11
Carlos Gomez 77 1420 182 17 123 .246 30 29 26 21 28

 

Analysis: Juan Pierre is in the 7th in BA. Carl Crawford’s counting categories are as strong as Ellsbury’s are weak, yet Ellsbury’s 5th ranked BA seems a waste in the 9th hole in Fenway in 2011. Chone Figgins is 6th in BA. B.J. Upton’s BA is where I thought it would be, but his rankings in HR, RBI, and PA should easily be in the top 7 or 8. However, they’re not. Ichiro is barely out of the top half in HR and RBI, despite his swing, his home park, and always batting leadoff. No surprise, but I’ve got to shout it anyway–Hanley is a stud! Rollins puts up top 11 or better counting stats, but only 6 of these guys still in The Show are worse in BA. Despite his lost time due to injuries Roberts is in the top half in every category. Victorino is no slouch either. Willy Taveras…Willy Taveras, are you kidding me? Rios’ BA is stronger than I remembered and those counting stats are very good. I’d be in love with Bobby Abreu if he was a little younger or the Angels a lot better; his BA is in the top half and only Wright has more RBI. Despite his woes last season Kemp’s BA is 7th. Matt didn’t play full time until 2008. As a 5 category contributor in the past, his upside looks very good with Donnie Baseball Mattingly. Only Brandon Phillips’ BA limits his  stellar value. Is Sizemore’s BA really that low? Only 3 of the 30 had lower batting averages, but after all that missed playing time he made the list. Gardner indeed is a one trick pony thus far. Bartlett has been a steady contributor, except last season. If you can take the big hit on BA, Chris Young is the Man. Damon still made the list? Yes, and with respectful counting stats. Will the Wizard Maddon chance a few more attempts at The Trop? Maybe…

Projections:

SB Threat AVG R RBI HR SB AB
Carl Crawford 0.292 101 81 16 47 635
Ian Kinsler 0.274 91 68 18 23 525
Ichiro Suzuki 0.306 81 46 9 34 665
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.277 83 51 8 50 559
Brett Gardner 0.269 95 55 7 44 530
Alexis Rios 0.269 77 76 17 28 581
Bobby Abreu 0.266 82 80 16 22 547
Juan Pierre 0.274 81 48 3 51 598
B.J. Upton 0.249 86 64 14 41 570
Rajai Davis 0.277 66 51 6 43 483
Brian Roberts 0.273 83 57 11 27 558
Chone Figgins 0.268 81 43 4 37 590
Grady Sizemore 0.25 75 67 18 20 509
Johnny Damon 0.267 80 59 14 14 512
Coco Crisp 0.262 70 51 11 31 458
Rajai Davis 0.277 66 51 6 43 483
Scott Podsednik 0.282 39 30 4 17 320
Hanley Ramirez 0.306 102 85 25 31 591
David Wright 0.288 92 96 23 21 601
Matt Kemp 0.276 89 88 24 27 612
Jose Reyes 0.282 89 62 13 36 609
Brandon Phillips 0.267 89 79 19 21 635
Michael Bourn 0.261 88 43 5 52 606
Shane Victorino 0.271 87 62 14 28 579
Chris Young 0.244 81 76 21 19 579
Jimmy Rollins 0.248 73 60 14 28 543
Jason Bartlett 0.276 74 55 8 20 517
Nyjer Morgan 0.27 66 35 3 32 496
Ryan Theriot 0.275 68 38 4 18 532
Carlos Gomez 0.252 62 43 7 22 446

 

{6-4-3 Assists to Baseball-Reference, Last Player Picked, Marcel.}

 

SPLITS: John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Scott Baker, Bronson Arroyo, Javier Vazquez

Issue: Over the last 3 seasons 29 pitchers have won 36 games or more. Only 5 had cumulative ERAs over 4.00: John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Scott Baker, Bronson Arroyo, Javier Vazquez. Which ones should we pursue in 2011?

Facts: Arroyo is the only one to have a credible 2010, so he got a 3 year $15 million contract extension, but it was a busy off-season for all 5. Following his first season at Fenway Park Lackey lost 15 pounds, while Vazquez has fled the Bronx for south Florida in 2011. Santana has added a split-finger fastball; Baker had surgery. Let’s go back and look at 2010.

Analysis:

Lackey
Split W L ERA IP HR WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
1st Half 9 5 4.78 113 10 1.602 5.4 1.48
2nd Half 5 6 3.97 102 8 1.216 7.8 3.3
Santana
1st Half 8 7 3.76 122 15 1.303 7.4 2.78
2nd Half 9 3 4.11 100.2 12 1.341 6.2 1.86
Baker
1st Half 7 8 4.87 109 17 1.312 7.8 5
2nd Half 5 1 3.82 61.1 6 1.402 7.8 2.21
Arroyo
1st Half 9 4 4.04 120.1 13 1.23 4.3 1.41
2nd Half 8 6 3.68 95.1 16 1.038 5.9 3.5
Vazquez
1st Half 7 7 4.45 95 15 1.221 7.6 2.11
2nd Half 3 3 6.64 62.1 17 1.668 5.9 1.52

 

2011 Projections:

Hurler W ERA WHIP K IP
Lackey 12 4.09 1.35 135 181
Santana 12 3.99 1.30 139 174
Baker 11 4.15 1.27 139 169
Arroyo 13 3.98 1.26 122 190
Vazquez 10 4.27 1.27 141 161

 

{6-4-3 Assists to Baseball-Reference and Marcel}

Adrian Beltre Shelved With Grade 1 Strain

The Rangers’ $96 million dollar man is expected to miss up to two weeks of Cactus League games with a strained right calf muscle.

Analysis: Injured before he reported to Arizona, Beltre’s MRI on Thursday revealed a mild strain. This certainly does not sound serious, as nothing was torn and test results revealed no other issues in the calf area. The team has already stated that Beltre’s Opening Day status should not be affected by this minor setback, and it appears that this is simply a case of being overcautious with a very expensive commodity. Adrian has never missed time with a calf issue in the past, so there is no worry here about a chronic or recurring injury.

Projection: When it comes to a player with Beltre’s prowess on both sides of the ball, any type of injury can put a scare into Fantasy owners. There is minimal reason for fear this time, though, as Adrian should get back to baseball activities by the end of next week and will hopefully see some game action by March 11 or earlier. Although he has a brief history of putting up huge numbers in contract years (see 2004 and 2010) and then disappointing thereafter, I do believe his lean seasons in Seattle are permanently in the rear view mirror. Beltre’s 2010 All-Star campaign was not an aberration, and being surrounded by the likes of Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz should serve him well. Some skeptics have attributed his impressive figures last year to playing in Fenway, but the fact is he was actually better on the road in every relevant category. Beltre may not reach a .321 batting average again, but you can still count on him for 25-30 home runs, 38-45 doubles, and between 85-95 runs batted in.

Jonathan Sanchez Is Not A SP2 Or SP3

Many sites have distorted projections of Jonathan Sanchez due to his extremely low ERA last year.

Analysis: Jonathan Sanchez may be a strikeout machine but he was one lucky guy last year. He had a 79.5 LOB%, fourth best among qualified pitchers in 2010 and over seven percent above his career average. His 2010 FIP of 4.00 was nearly identical to his career average of 4.08. However, his ERA last year was 3.07 making his ERA minus FIP -.93, which means he was the fifth luckiest pitcher in baseball last year. His career ERA is over 4.2! Also take into consideration his BABIP against was .252 last year, thirty-seven points below his career average. There is no possible way Sanchez can sustain these numbers and finish as the twenty-second best pitcher in roto formats like he did last year.

Projection: Sanchez will go long before he should in most drafts and that means you won’t get the chance to pick him up but that’s fine because he’ll only give you 13 Wins, 3.80 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 200 K’s… solid SP4 numbers if you ask me.

What to Expect From Domonic Brown

Ranked fourth on Baseball America’s latest Top 100 Prospects list, Brown is fighting to become Philadelphia’s starting right fielder on Opening Day.

Analysis: A hidden gem not selected until the 20th round in 2006, the 23-year old Brown has rapidly ascended through the Phillies system over the last few years, making his Major League debut this past summer. The youngster scuffled a bit over 35 games in the bigs, to the tune of .210/.257/.355 in 70 plate appearances. During this cup of coffee, however, Brown displayed flashes of brilliance including an RBI double in his first at-bat. A true five-tool player, Domonic’s potential emergence has softened the blow of losing Jayson Werth to free agency. Currently in competition with both John Mayberry Jr. and Ben Francisco for the starting right field job, Brown appears to have the upper hand in manager Charlie Manuel’s eyes. Although Manuel has stated that the position if “up for grabs” he plans to play the phenom a lot this spring, getting him as many at-bats as possible. This stance says a lot about the team’s immediate plans for Brown, and they are giving him every chance possible to work his way onto that April 1st lineup card.

Projection: Unless he has a terrible showing in the Grapefruit League, expect to see Brown patrolling right field at Citizens Bank Park when that first pitch is thrown against the Astros. The Philly brass wants him there, and so does young Domonic who seems to have the right mindset about winning the job. Surrounded by a monster (albeit lefty heavy) lineup, Brown should thrive in the cozy confines of the Phillies home park. Look for something in the .280/.350/.490 area over a full season, with 20-25 stolen bases to boot.