Category: NFL

ADP Watch- Darren McFadden

In most leagues Darren McFadden is the fifth back being taken off the board, but in ESPN leagues he is the tenth back.

Analysis: Obviously many, many clueless people play fantasy football through ESPN. Keep in mind that Darren McFadden was going to lead the league in rushing yards last year prior to his injury in week seven. With McFadden this year we have what Matthew Stafford was last year… a great player but injury prone. McFadden should not slip out of the top five to six backs unless he tweaks something in the preseason. His 5.2 yards per carry in 2010 and 5.4 yards per carry in 2011 was fifth and third respectively among backs with at least 100 carries those seasons. He is an absolute game breaker who is going as the fifth back and ninth overall pick on average in leagues across the country.

The ESPN ADP of 24.6 is shocking but when ESPN ranks a back the eleventh best the sheep have trouble forming an opinion for themselves. McFadden finished 2011 as the thirty-fourth back in standard leagues despite missing nine games and having two carries in a week seven contest. That’s right… he put up RB3 numbers last year in six games and change. McFadden is at the point in his career where he could miss four games and still outperform his 24.6 ADP in ESPN leagues. If you are willing to gamble a bit, Darren McFadden just may follow in Matthew Stafford’s footsteps this year.

ADP Watch- Alex Smith

Alex Smith is going as high as the fifteenth quartback being taken in standard league drafts.

Analysis: The Niners added plenty of talent on the outside for Alex Smith this offseason but there are plenty of causes for concern. Aside from the modest seventeen touchdown passes in sixteen games, Smith is extremely over hyped this year. He was sacked forty-four times last year, most in the NFL. Smith also fumbled seven times and did not average 200 passing yards per game last year. Tarvaris Jackson actually passed for more yards per game than Smith did last season. We also have to consider that the level of play will be much improved in the NFC West this coming year.

Yes, Alex Smith did just barely outscore Joe Flacco in 2011 but can we really count on him to repeat his five interception performance again? Smith did not throw for 300 yards in a game last year, so we cannot count on spot starting him outside of bye weeks. Flacco tossed for over 300 yards against the Steeler and Texan defenses last year. With Flacco you just have that feeling that if Vick or Newton gets injured he would not cost you a fantasy title like Smith may. Backup fantasy quarterbacks are important and in this case you have to pass on Smith with an ADP in the 110-120 range.

ADP Watch- Jeremy Maclin

Despite missing three games last year, Jeremy Maclin was still a top thirty wide out in standard leagues.

Analysis: Jeremy Maclin is the twenty-first to twenty-third wide out being taken off the board in standard league drafts. His 53-64 average draft position is shocking considering he was a borderline WR1 heading into the 2011 season last year. Pound for pound he is Philly’s best wide out. His fifteen receiving touchdowns over the past two years is five more than DeSean Jackson’s total. Maclin also has twenty-eight more receptions over the past two seasons as well, yet both Philly receivers have similar average draft positions in both standard and PPR leagues.

Maclin runs better routes and has better hands than the flashy Jackson who did not have even one kick/punt return for a score last year. Keep in mind that Jackson is a paid man, so who does not question his motivation to be an elite wide out at this point? Maclin is clearly a solid pick at his ADP and a wide out with legit WR1 upside. Antonio Brown and Percy Harvin have a similar ADP but they do not offer WR1 potential like Maclin.

ADP Watch- Trent Richardson

Trent Richardson is the ninth back being taken off the board in standard league mock drafts. His 13.9 ADP is extremely high at this point.

Analysis: Trent Richardson is one impressive back but the stats do not lie when it comes to projecting his numbers this year. The Steelers, Ravens and Bengals’ defenses all finished in the top ten in the NFL last year in rushing yards allowed per game. All three divisional rivals also finished in the top ten in yards per carry against. Add those impressive defenses to a shaky quarterback situation in Cleveland and you have yourself one modest fantasy rookie. Yet many experts want to annoint Richardson as a RB1 but he is just not there yet by no fault of his own of course.

Richardson very well may win offensive rookie of the year this year but RB1 numbers will not be his. Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson are being drafted after Richardson at the moment and smart fantasy owners love this. Michael Turner has rushed for over 1,300 yards and at least 11 TDs each of the past two years and he is the nineteenth back being taken off the board. Is anyone really buying Mike Smith’s comment that Turner will not get 300 touches this year?

ADP Watch- Ray Rice

Ray Rice is the third running back being taken off the board on average in standard league mock drafts as of Friday the third of August.

Analysis: Ray Rice may be one of the finest backs in the league but he should experience a bit of a drop off in production this year. The Ravens’ passing game and Joe Flacco are developing with the young talent around them. Torrey Smith appears to be a Mike Wallace type of playmaker while tight end Ed Dickson will have his break out season this year. Aside from the improving passing game taking a few touches away from Rice here and there, we must consider the primary reason his numbers will take a hit this year.

Terrell Suggs was the defensive player of the year last year and the loss of his play for most if not all of the season will cost Rice dearly. The Ravens defense will not be getting off of the field nearly as fast and as often as they would with Suggs playing. Fourteen sacks, seven forced fumbles and two picks is impossible to replace. Rice had at least 360 touches per season over the past two years but do not expect that to continue in 2012.