Category: NFL

Buying Low- Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson is the Seattle week one starter but is he in a position to put up QB2 numbers?

Analysis: If Russell Wilson does indeed struggle Matt Flynn will always be there lurking around this year. Flynn is capable and is being paid the sizable contract but he’s also one of the top thirty most owned quarterbacks while Wilson is still available in the majority of leagues as well. You know what you’re going to get with guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jake Locker(tons of picks) but Russell Wilson just may be something special.

Wilson certainly has the weapons with guys like Sidney Rice and Braylon Edwards. If those two receivers can stay healthy with Marshawn Lynch pounding the rock, Seattle will have the best offense in the NFC West. Throw in a motivated Kellen Winslow and Zach Miller and you have yourself a very solid offense built around one athletic rookie who has rushed for 150 yards in three preseason games. If you already had your draft and got stuck with a Ryan Fitzpatrick it is a no-brainer here… pick Russell Wilson up and just see what happens. Worst case scenario is that Wilson loses his job by week four while Fitzpatrick is vying for the league lead in interceptions.

ADP Watch- Rashad Jennings

Rashad Jennings is a very interesting back to take a look at especially with the Jags and MJD at odds on a contract.

Analysis: Rashad Jennings is sporting a career 5.4 yards per carry average with five touchdowns and zero fumbles on 123 carries. It may be a small sample size but he can certainly be a feature back going forward. Even if MJD gets a deal done soon he will be more susceptible to injury this year. At the moment MJD is the 4th-10th back being taken off the board while Jennings is the 40th with an ADP in the 105-135 range. You can get away with drafting Jennings as your fourth back yet he may wind up as a RB2 if the MJD situation goes south.

Jennings makes a great low risk/high reward back at the moment considering his 175 rushing yards on just 36 preseason carries. To expect MJD to come in and carry the rock in every down and situation without proper camp time is crazy(see Chris Johnson last year). Jennings is a fine 225 pound back and if a trade is to happen he is an absolute steal.

ADP Watch- Fred Jackson

Fred Jackson in the thirteenth running back being taken off the board in standard league drafts. His ADP sits in the 24-34 range.

Analysis: Fred Jackson has only rushed for over 1,000 yards just once in his career. In fact, he’s never scored more than six rushing touchdowns in one season either and he’s thirty-one years old. Many experts are putting a lot of stock into what he did early in the 2011 season and consider him a borderline RB1/RB2. Jackson has also never carried the rock more than 237 times in a season which would have been the fifteenth most in the NFL last year. Will he carry the ball enough to put up the yards and can he break his career high of six rushing touchdowns? Will he stay productive as the season wears on the thirty-one year old vet?

There seems to be plenty of question marks regarding Fred Jackson and very few statistics that give you confidence going forward. CJ Spiller is ready for a breakout season and he put together a very solid second half last year. It just doesn’t make sense to draft Jackson as a borderline RB1/RB2 when guys like Michael Turner(23TDs last two years) and BGE(24TDs last two years) are out there later in drafts.

ADP Watch- Mikel Leshoure

With Jahvid Best on the PUP list, Mikel Leshoure just may get his chance to carry the bulk of the load for the Detroit ground game.

Analysis: While Kevin Smith may be ahead of Mikel Leshoure on the depth chart, Leshoure will finish the season as the more productive back. Leshoure is a 227 pound power back in the mould of a Rashard Mendenhall. He’s in a similar situation to Houston’s second round pick Ben Tate who was injured in his rookie season only to burst onto the scene in 2011. Like Tate, Leshoure is a second round pick who missed his rookie year and like Tate he has first round talent. After Leshoure is to serve his two game suspension to begin the season, expect the bulk of short yardage carries and the ever important goal line touches to go to Leshoure over Kevin Smith. Smith is a fine low end PPR back this year but the Detroit tail back situation is rather murky and needs to be monitored to ensure a solid draft.

Leshoure is actually going undrafted in many leagues but the earliest he is going is as the 48th back around picks 120-130. If he stays healthy he’s a great under the radar sleeper who will certainly outperform his ADP.

ADP Watch- Mike Williams

With Vincent Jackson signing a five year deal with the Tampa Bay Bucs, Mike Williams’ fantasy value is in question.

Analysis: Mike Williams did have a down year in 2011 but Josh Freeman’s dip in play was more to blame. Williams was targeted 124 times in 2011, fourteenth most in the NFL. Even with Jackson in the mix Williams is still good for 100 targets this year. He caught 65 balls for 771 yards in his second year and as a rookie he caught 65 balls for 964 yards. The biggest difference was the three touchdowns last year to the eleven in his rookie year. Most people want to blame Williams but take a look at Josh Freeman’s numbers- 2010- 25 TD, 6 INT while in 2011- 16 TD, 22 INT. Freeman has ball security issues which also include 27 total fumbles over the past three seasons. With Kellen Winslow gone, Mike Williams is far and away the second option in the Tampa passing game this year which will improve… Josh Freeman isn’t an awful quarterback. Vincent Jackson will get his share but to expect just three touchdowns from Williams again in 2012 is a joke.

At the moment Williams is the 45th to 49th wide out being taken off the board with an ADP in the 120-150 range. On talent alone he is certainly worth a gamble at his ADP and he has tons of upside unlike Laurent Robinson and Randall Cobb who are in his ADP range.