Category: NFL

Draft Impact- Michael Floyd

Michael Floyd is as polished as any wide out to come out of college in the last few years.

Analysis: Michael Floyd has the size, 6’3″, 220 pounds and the speed to be a productive fantasy wide out. He will benefit greatly from the attention Larry Fitzgerald will receive. At the moment Floyd is the thirty-eighth wide out being taken in fantasy mock drafts and that is a solid place for him. He should put up numbers very similar to Justin Blackmon this year especially if Kevin Kolb can play up to his potential in his second year in Arizona.

Where Floyd can really do some damage is in the red zone and with Larry Fitzgerald drawing double teams, Floyd should have some favorable matchups. Early Doucet and the Arizona tight ends do not have the athletic ability or the talent in the air that Floyd possesses. He will certainly be the number two option for the Cardinals in all situations in the upcoming 2012 season. Even with the return of running back Ryan Williams, Arizona’s two best athletes on offense remain Fitzgerald and Floyd. Expect WR3 type numbers at a surprisingly reasonable ADP from the rookie.

Draft Impact- Justin Blackmon

The Jacksonville Jaguars traded up to get Oklahoma State wide out Justin Blackmon with the fifth pick of the 2012 NFL Draft.

Analysis: Here we have another rookie in Blackmon who finds himself in an awful situation. We don’t need to look any further than the futility of Jacksonville quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert finished the 2011 season playing in fifteen NFL games with a 50.8 completion percentage, thirty-second “best” in the NFL and one spot above Tim Tebow in last place. Gabbert finished thirty-third in yards per passing attempt, just behind Colt McCoy, Christian Ponder and Curtis Painter. Gabbert also finished thirty-third in the NFL last year with a passer rating of 65.4. Considering only thirty-three quarterbacks in the NFL in 2011 qualified to have a passer rating… Gabbert finished last or next to last in some very important quarterback statistics.

As talented as Justin Blackmon is, he will only go as far as Blaine Gabbert will allow him to go. At the moment, Blackmon is the thirty-third wide out being taken in twelve team format mock drafts. Other wide outs being taken at or near his average draft position include Brandon Lloyd, Eric Decker, Torrey Smith and Mike Williams(TB). Lloyd has Brady in a pass happy offense, Decker seems to be Manning’s new best friend, Torrey Smith is a burner with seven touchdowns as a rookie and Williams is a low risk sleeper at his ADP this year. Justin Blackmon will not outperform the wide outs at his ADP because Blaine Gabbert isn’t even on Mark Sanchez’s level.

Draft Impact- RG3 A QB1?

Robert Griffin III on average is the 12th quarterback being taken in mock drafts at the moment. In some leagues this would put RG3 into QB1 status.

Analysis: While he has all the tools to succeed, it is just too difficult to expect a rookie quarterback on the Redskins to instantly become a fantasy football QB1. You have to approach drafting RG3 knowing that another borderline QB1/QB2 will be needed in case the Skins implode. Matt Schaub or Jay Cutler coming off of an injury would be great under the radar options to pair with RG3. You could stream two later round quarterbacks and have a beefed up running back/wide out situation or perhaps an elite tight end. Regardless, a healthy Schaub or Cutler with Brandon Marshall will be solid options to pair with the rookie.

While I cannot endorse RG3 as a QB1 yet, the return of franchise tagged tight end Fred Davis will be huge. Davis surpassed the eighty yard mark six times in twelve games last year. Davis also finished eighth among tight ends with 796 receiving yards in just those twelve games. With Pierre Garcon now in the mix in Washington along with Leonard Hankerson, Santana Moss and Anthony Armstrong, the Skins do have some solid weapons for Griffin. RG3 really needs to run for over 600 yards to put up QB1 numbers this year which he did three times during his college career.

Draft Impact- Trent Richardson

Trent Richardson is the best running back to come out of college since Darren McFadden. “Experts” have been feeding the hype machine calling this kid the best back since Adrian Peterson.

Analysis: As much as I love Trent Richardson, he just did not end up in the right situation. First off, take a look at the AFC North defenses. The Ravens, Steelers and Bengals all finished in the top ten in the NFL in rushing yards against per game last year. All three divisional rivals also finished in the top ten in the NFL in yards per carry against. Richardson found himself in the worst possible division to rush the ball, plain and simple. To compound the situation the Cleveland quarterback situation is not solid. Any novice can see that you stack the box against the Browns now and make them beat you in the air.

All these negatives don’t mean he won’t have an offensive rookie of the year campaign but don’t go expecting RB1 type numbers. He will be drafted by some impressionable fantasy owner as a RB1 which means he should not be on your fantasy team this year. The real winner here is Cleveland wide out Greg Little. Little amassed over 700 receiving yards in his rookie year. With all the attention Richardson will receive Little could make a run at 1,000 receiving yards in 2012 if he can limit his drops.

Draft Impact- Andrew Luck

Rookie quarterbacks who come into the league and have instant success almost always have a solid running game and defense to lean on. In 2011 the Colts finished 26th in total rushing yards and 25th in total defense.

Analysis: Maybe I’m the only one who isn’t on the Andrew Luck bandwagon but I just can’t see it. The Pac-12 is just an awful defensive conference. On top of that, Stanford had an awesome offensive line and a great running game(20th in nation). Take Luck’s three biggest games last year(Oregon, USC, OkSt), he threw four interceptions and only ran for twenty yards on eighteen carries.

Let’s face it, the Colts have tons of issues aside from Jim Irsay’s unparelleled narcissism. Jacob Tamme is now in Denver and there is a reason Peyton didn’t want Dallas Clark and neither do the Colts… he’s a shell of his former self. Donald Brown has yet to run for 700 yards in a season and Delone Carter certainly is not the answer. The defense will not be helping Luck out either, they allowed 26.9 points per game, fifth worst in the NFL. As a result Luck will be throwing tons of second half picks playing catch up. Keep in mind that AFC South rivals the Jags, Texans and Titans all finished in the top eleven in points allowed in 2011(under 21 PPG). Expect one “unlucky” fantasy year for the “next” John Elway.