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Selling High- Jair Jurrjens

Jair Jurrjens may be in the conversation for the National League Cy Young but he is due to regress. His value will not get higher so it is time to sell high and I’ll tell you why.

Analysis: Jair Jurrjens may be sporting a sub two ERA but he is one of the luckiest pitchers in the bigs this year. Jurrjens’ ERA-FIP is a staggering -1.23, second “best” in the major leagues. What is also concerning is his absolutely unsustainable 84% LOB rate, once again second best in the major leagues. We can also look at Jurrjens’ BABIP against which sits at .256, fifteenth luckiest this year among all starting pitchers. Jurrjens actually has his lowest strikeout rate since his rookie year with the Tigers in 2007. All signs point to a pitcher waiting to blow up and lose tons of trade value. He’s a solid pitcher but he isn’t and will never be a SP1 in fantasy baseball.

Projection: Expect an ERA over three in Jurrjens’ remaining starts. His xFIP is actually 3.76 right now so it might get ugly, at least for him. Jurrjens is still just a three pitch pitcher and although his fastball has been great this year it still doesn’t average 90 MPH. If his command suffers just a bit due to fatigue down the stretch it won’t be pretty and don’t say I didn’t tell you so.

A-Rod Replacements

Alex Rodriguez is heading to the disabled list to have surgery on a meniscus tear in his right knee. Rodriguez is expected to be on the shelf for four to six weeks so it is crucial to find a serviceable replacement at third base.

Analysis: Minnesota third baseman Danny Valencia has been playing very well as of late and has some pop to offer. Valencia has ten bombs on the year with 46 RBI. Valencia also has four multi hit games over the last two weeks to bring his batting average back to a respectable .236. He’s actually a pretty good contact hitter but his .256 BABIP is the sole reason he’s not hitting in the .280s. San Diego third baseman Chase Headley is not widely available but he does supply a bit of speed to his .299 batting average. Headley has eight swipes on the year and totaled seventeen stolen bases last year. His power is lacking but he is still a solid option. The only other option at third base is the Florida outfielder Emilio Bonifacio who has third base eligibility. Bonifacio plays all over the place with the Marlins so he may have a place on your team regardless. Bonifacio has eleven steals in the last two weeks alone as well as a slew of multi hit games. He doesn’t bring the power and he will cool off but he is still an option at third in place of A-Rod.

Mike Trout Promoted, What’s Next?

At just nineteen years old, Mike Trout, the number one prospect in baseball has been promoted to the Angels and will bat ninth Friday night.

Analysis: There are two ways to approach Mike Trout’s promotion. You can pluck him up off the wire and either keep him or trade him. Nineteen year olds no matter how talented typically do not set the majors on fire. If he gets off to a good start it would be wise to take advantage of the hype machine and deal the center fielder for a sure thing. However, if you do decide to keep Trout he should be able to contribute in all five roto categories(until the Peter Bourjos situation plays out). Trout hit .330 with 29 stolen bases and 9 bombs in just 74 Double A games this year. He certainly is ready for the big time but he’s not quite ready to be a fantasy force. We also have to consider that Peter Bourjos will be coming back sooner than later with a hamstring injury and with the money tied up with Vernon Wells and Torii Hunter you would have to think Trout might be going back down to the minors when it is clear Bourjos is healthy.

Buying Low- Dan Uggla

Dan Uggla may be struggling at the plate this year but it’s not as awful as his stats suggest.

Analysis: Dan Uggla may be batting just .183 on the year but there is reason to hope. Uggla’s .193 BABIP is the lowest in the major leagues and ninety-eight points below his career average. Everything else for Uggla has been relatively the same. His walk and strikeout rates are stable and in line with his career averages and of course he’s still playing some awful defense at second base. This is the perfect time to buy Uggla low. His power numbers and batting average will rise when his BABIP comes back up and so will his fantasy trade value. Outside of Rickie Weeks, Ian Kinsler, Robbie Cano and Danny Espinosa where else are you going to get this kind of power at second base? If you have a lower tier second baseman now is the perfect time to invest in Dan Uggla or even if you still own Uggla as your primary second bagger you need to have some faith.

Projection: As long as Uggla’s BABIP doesn’t continue to absolutely kill him we should expect a return to form from Dan Uggla. He’s good for a .240 plus batting average, about fourteen homers and forty RBI in his remaining games.

Lester To DL, Possible Replacements

Jon Lester is heading to the disabled list with a lower lat strain suffered Tuesday night against the Blue Jays.

Analysis: We do not yet have a clear time table on Lester’s return but one thing is certain- there are huge holes on fantasy squads nationwide as a result of the injury. If you feel like riding a hot streak you may want to pick up Phillie starter Vance Worley. In just eight starts this year Worley is 4-1 with a 2.22 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Worley isn’t this talented, his FIP suggests a regression but his slider is the truth. Worley will make his next start the first game after the All-Star break against the New York Mets. San Diego starter Tim Stauffer is on a hot streak of his own and certainly merits a mention. Stauffer hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in his last six starts while winning three games in that span. Add in the Petco park factor and he is a pitcher on the rise. The veteran righty is finally putting it all together and his walk rate just keeps dropping(2.09BB/9). Stauffer’s FIP is just a shade over three so he is the real deal this year. Stauffer is scheduled to make his next start Sunday against the Dodgers.