Player News – Page 111 – FantasySP Blog

Is Pronk Back?

Travis Hafner is hitting .344 with 4 HR, 11 R and 10 RBI in just seventeen games this season. So is Pronk back or is this just a hot streak?

Analysis: Travis Hafner is walking less and striking out more than his career averages. Hafner is also putting up an unsustainable .415 BABIP and he’s swinging at 27.9% of pitches outside the strike zone, eight percent above his career average. We also have to consider that Hafner hasn’t had a year with 500 plate appearances or 20 home runs since 2007. It really is just a matter of time before the slugger ends up on the disabled list. You can ride the hot streak if you like but reality is going to catch up to him sooner than later. You cannot swing at junk all year, maintain an ungodly BABIP, walk less and strike out more and expect positive results by seasons end. If Hafner can stay healthy you’re still looking at a guy without position flexibility being a DH and a player that won’t reach thirty bombs or a .290 batting average.

Projection: The injury history concerns me the most but if you insist on not dealing Pronk than you should expect a .275 batting average, 20 home runs and 60 RBI at the end of the rainbow for you. He’s not going to stay healthy.

Buying Low- Austin Jackson

Austin Jackson is a solid outfield option in roto leagues but the hype and his misleading 2010 batting average due to an inflated BABIP has left many fantasy owners disappointed.

Analysis: It really was just a matter of time before Austin Jackson owners realized he wasn’t going to live up to his draft position this year but that doesn’t mean you have to outright drop the guy from your squad. 2011 is a completely different story for Jackson, he’s hitting .157 with a .222 BABIP. The most concerning stat is the 34.3% K rate, he’s striking out even more than last year. He’ll settle down soon enough, he’s not fighting for a job. When Jackson gets it going at the top of that Tigers’ order he will be scoring runs in bunches again and with it the stolen bases will be there. The batting average will be fine, but nothing to write home about. Fantasy baseball is about patience and Jackson is too good of a player in roto formats to be available in over fifty percent of leagues, so stay with him and start him when he heats up.

Projection: Austin Jackson will finish the season with 22-25 stolen bases, about 80 runs and a batting average in the middle of the pack. Maybe next year he’ll finally be drafted where he belongs.

The Most Dissapointing Fantasy Players of the 2010-2011 Season (Stephen Curry)

Steph Was another player who I expected a lot more from but could not deliver completely on the hype.

Analysis: After a stellar rookie season, expectations were incredibly high. In his first season he removed all doubts that his game belonged in the NBA. In his sophomore season Steph played decently and had a few games that really made you acknowledge his scoring mastery. However looking at Steph’s rookie season and then predicting his sophomore season the consensus was on fairly significant improvement, but that wasn’t the case. It was safe to say that he entered into a bit of the notorious sophomore slump. What really hurt 2011 fantasy owners regarding Steph Curry was his decline in steals. He grabbed approximately a 1/2 a steal less this season than last. I like many others thought he was poised to average closer to 3 steals this season rather than 1.5. His percentages improved slightly which was nice, but he actually averaged less made 3s per game. Furthermore Steph averaged less rebounds and assists than he did a season ago. The numbers are down very slightly, basically nothing, but we were all counting on him progressing up another level rather than producing the same stats.The factor here is a lack of improvement rather than a decline, because of Steph’s age.

Projection: Steph Curry is an excellent scorer and playmaker and will always find a spot on somebody’s fantasy team. I think he recovers from his sophomore slump and puts up major fantasy stats next season. Be on the lookout for a Monta Ellis trade this offseason, because if that happens Curry will handle the ball a lot more and his stats should go up even more. They have managed to coexist okay, but an Ellis trade is certainly not out of the question.

Jonny Gomes- Trade Bait

Jonny Gomes may be second in baseball with six homers but we all know his hot streak will not last. It’s time to move the hot outfielder now before his value takes a huge hit(see Alexi Ogando 4/17).

Analysis: Jonny Gomes has never hit more than 21 home runs in season and as great of a hitter’s park as he is mashing in right now I highly doubt he’ll break his career high this year. Gomes’ HR/FB rate is at 23% this year over nine points above his career average of 14%. We also cannot ignore that Gomes is a career .247 hitter who is hitting just .240 this year. You wouldn’t think just six home runs would get just about every fantasy player excited but it still does. The fact is Gomes is a decent fantasy bench player and you can ride out his hot streak which won’t be more than two home runs over the next week or two. Intelligent fantasy baseball is knowing when to trade a hot player and when to keep a hot player. Selling Gomes right now is the smartest thing you can do since you most likely already picked him up.

Projection: Gomes won’t crack the .250 mark this year nor will he reach the 25 home run mark. What he will do is disappoint sooner than later.

The Most Dissapointing Fantasy Players of the 2010-2011 Season (Brooke Lopez)

There were a number of incredibly disappointing fantasy players this season, but I’m going to dissect the biggest letdowns. Starting with Brooke Lopez, here we go!

Analysis: Going into this season, fantasy owners had some pretty high hopes for the better Lopez brother. Over his rookie and sophomore seasons Lopez was very consistent and showed the potential to be one of the better big men in the league. There were two serious flaws in his game that really hurt his value and caused him to be such a bust this season. Lopez seemingly forgot how to rebound, averaging 6 boards a game. That’s a drop of 2.8 boards from last season. I don’t think anybody could have predicted that, when they drafted him. Losing that many boards when you expected his boards to climb was absolutely painful. Lopez’s assists and blocks were down too hurting his value even more. The bottom line is that Lopez was expected to have a breakout year, or in the very least make a substantial jump, but he did neither. He improved his scoring numbers, but lost out in his percentages a little. The minor jump in scoring does not account for the drop-offs in the other categories mentioned.

Next Season Projection: I think the addition of Deron Williams will help Lopez find his game once again. Playing with one of the best players in the game and undoubtedly having a better win percentage will keep Lopez motivated and productive. I expect next season to be the breakout season we were expecting this year. After this bad season Lopez might fall quite low in your fantasy draft, be sure to pick him up when he does.