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Nate McClouth and Jordan Schaffer 2011 Outlook

Issue: Nate McClouth is hot early in Spring Training, while Jordan Schaffer looks ticketed for AAA where he’ll get to play every day. What should I do with these 2 Braves center fielders on Auction Day?

Facts: Schaffer was hot, hot, hot 2 years ago in Spring Training, then suffered a hand injury at the end of the first week of the 2009 regular season. He played through it and out of a job. It has taken 2 years for him to recover fully; in the meantime he has put up nondescript MILB numbers. Jordan’s star has dimmed, but Nate is on fire right this minute. What can we expect from McClouth? Here are his career splits month by month:

Split PA R HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG
April/March 337 47 15 47 6 .265 .360 .478
May 484 76 14 48 17 .245 .340 .419
June 348 43 5 32 12 .219 .277 .356
July 395 70 14 35 12 .249 .324 .457
August 330 43 11 32 14 .241 .317 .415
Sept/Oct 469 82 18 60 22 .286 .385 .496

 

Analysis: The beginning and end of each season are when McClouth is at his best. Unfortunately, there are more games in between when Nate has produced sub-par numbers. Let someone else pay full value or a premium for McClouth’s Spring Training and March/April numbers. If you’ve got a spot for a buck flier and your league allows you to grab players on Auction or Draft Day who aren’t on a MLB roster, then spend a buck or a late, late draft pick on 24 year old, Deep Sleeper Jordan Schaffer, as he’ll have the starting job in Atlanta by mid to late May.

Predictions:

Nate McClouth   403PA  12HR  54R  45RBI  12SB  .246BA.

Jordan Schaffer  469PA  16HR  70R  75RBI  19SB  .287BA

Is It Time To Cut Maggette?

Corey Maggette is owned in the majority of fantasy basketball leagues but if you are not in a deep league should you still keep him on your squad?

Analysis: At this point it’s safe to say Corey Maggette is only contributing in the points category and barely anything else. Just about all small forwards contribute in points so it’s nothing special. He has one combined steal and block over his last eight games. In his last four games he isn’t even averaging twenty minutes a game. To further add insult to injury Maggette isn’t even knocking down a half of a three a game nor is he shooting 45% from the field on the year. In short, he’s not giving you much of anything at this point so it’s time to reassess the needs of your fantasy squad to make a decision if keeping him is in your best interest.

Projection: 13 PPG, at most 4 RPG and a solid free throw percentage is all you’re really going to get from Corey Maggette going forward. He’s not hitting threes and he is not racking up the steals. Small forward is a deep position in fantasy basketball so cutting Maggette for category need may be in order.

Jeff Francis and Kevin Correia 2011 Outlook

Issue: Last season Jeff Francis and Kevin Correia both had ERAs greater than 5.00 and WHIPs higher than 1.48. Has the change in home ball parks for 2011 made them worthy of a $1 flier in Auction End Games?

Facts: Francis has spent 6 seasons in Colorado. In 2011 Jeff will be the #2 starting pitcher in KCR’s rotation. Correia has spent 8 seasons in The Show, first 6 with SFG and last 2 with SDP. Kevin will be the #3 starter in Pittsburgh this season.

Condensing each one’s career into a single season of stats looks like this:

Hurler W ERA IP HR WHIP HR/9 SO/9 SO/BB
Francis 13 4.77 201 25 1.429 1.1 6.1 2.1
Correia 7 4.57 150 18 1.441 1.1 6.6 1.84

 

The Park Factors are these:

HR LHB HR RHB K LHB K RHB
Correia(RHP)
SDP 59 95 107 110
Pitt 99 73 93 89
Francis(LHP)
COL 116 117 87 90
KCR 73 85 88 92

Analysis: This is a tale of home advantage going in opposite directions. Francis has been below the league average in K/9 which puts too many balls in play. He won’t get any material help in strikeouts in KCR, but those HR factors are so much better in KCR. Remember 100 = League Average. Correia has been right at or slightly above the league average for K/9. Pittsburgh will decrease those, especially with RH hitters. It also looks like Kevin will be a lot more vulnerable to homers by LH batters. Add to it that the Padres were one of the best defensive teams in 2010 while Pittsburgh was one of the worst.

We would stay away from Correia and consider Francis for a buck, while being nervous about his high career WHIP, but expecting it to come down. Keep in mind Correia has been healthy through out his career, while Francis has had shoulder problems 5 different times. Watch the Spring Training news for Jeff’s health.

Predictions:

Francis  12W  190IP  4.10ERA  105K  1.29WHIP

Correia   9W  172IP   4.60ERA  125K  1.43WHIP

{6-4-3 Assists to StatsCorner and Baseball-Reference.}

Brook Lopez Will Benefit From Having an Elite Point Guard

Brook Lopez seemingly took a step backwards this season and disappointed a great collection of fantasy basketball players.

Analysis: The most shocking aspect of Brook’s season thus far has been his horrible lack of rebounding. After averaging 9 boards a game in his sophomore season Brook hasn’t even been averaging 6 boards a game this season. To put that in perspective, he is only averaging .2 boards a game more than one of the worst rebounding centers in NBA history, Andrea Bargnani. For a player who rebounded so well his first two seasons this has been incredibly disappointing. Worse still his FG% has gone steadily declined each season, from 53%, to 50%, and finally to 47% this season. His assists have gone from 2.3 last season to 1.4 this season, and he has also had a minor drop off in blocks too. The only positive is that he is averaging a 1/2 point more this season. Little consolation for fantasy owners when he has dropped off in every other category. Brook has been in a losing environment for what will be his third consecutive year, his stats indicate that he is just not as passionate as he once was. He’s not hustling as hard for boards, nor working as hard for blocks.

Projection: Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov has finally added a star piece in Deron Williams to give Brook a little more support. Brook will start to his improve numbers across the board because he will finally have a reason for playing again. He’s going to find how much easier the game is when you have one of the best point guards in the league setting you up. Since the trade Brook has shot over 50% in both games, rebounded far better than his season averages, and reached the 20 point threshold both times. These are all good signs for Lopez and his fantasy numbers will make further jumps the more comfortable he gets with Deron Williams.

Chase Utley’s 2011 Outlook

Issue: Chase Utley turns 32 this season and continues to have health issues. What can we expect in 2011 using the 3 players with the most similar careers in MLB history through their age 31 seasons, namely Jeff Kent, Joe Gordon, and Jim Edmonds.

Facts: Kent played another 9 seasons, Gordon only 4, and Edmonds 8. Those 3 hung up these numbers from their age 32 season till retirement.

Player G AB R HR RBI BA SB
Kent 1266 4756 754 216 850 .300 45
Gordon 566 2021 318 100 358 .262 21
Edmonds 1000 3189 563 200 573 .274 26

 

Analysis: Health wise we are not as pessimistic as former NYY star Joe Gordon’s shortened career. Kent became superman later in his career, with his 2 best career seasons ahead of him. Kent is the exception here in that regard and not just with these hitters. That leaves us with Edmonds.

Jim Edmonds (age 32) 2002 Actual       476 AB  96R  28HR   83RBI   4SB  .311BA

Chase Utley (age 32) 2011 Projection    476 AB  96R  28HR  100RBI  4SB  .292BA

We feel Chase will have more RBI in the Philly lineup with less batting average.

{6-4-3 Assists to Bill James and Baseball-Reference for their player similarity scores.}