Is Randy Wolf For Real?

Randy Wolf is now 3-0 is his last three starts pitching 20 innings and allowing just one earned run. Wolf has also struck out 29 batters this year, ninth best in the National League but is this guy for real?

Analysis: To put it simply…no. While I love his career 7.2 K/9, Wolf is just a decent innings eater who shouldn’t blow up your roto ratios. Wolf’s left on base percentage is sitting at 80 percent, a career high and six percent above his career average. Wolf may also have a nice 2.64 ERA but his FIP is a pedestrian 4.16. It really is a mixed bag with Wolf. He’s going to strike out a lot of batters and he doesn’t walk many (2.3 BB/9) but he is prone to giving up big inning and his streaky nature deters me from endorsing him as anything other than a bottom tier fantasy starter. I have been impressed with his slider’s command and bite but he’s still throwing the same soft stuff every fifth day. His next scheduled start is against Houston this Saturday and after that I would consider trading the flavor of the week before a four inning, six earned run outing rears its ugly head.

Projection: Randy Wolf will put up numbers very similar to his last year with the Brewers- 13 wins, a four plus ERA and about 160 K’s.

NFL Draft: Quarterbacks

 

Have you grown as sick of hearing from ESPN’s Todd McShay and Mel Kiper Jr as I have? Since January, with increasing frequency, the dynamic duo have analysed the NFL draft every which way. They’ve rated the quarterbacks, they’ve done full 1st round mocks and the ole’ faithful top 10 list.

The favorite topic of their discussion is quarterback. Why not? It’s the sexiest position in football and the positions will sink or swim in this year’s draft. McShay and Kiper change their opinions like cheap suits. Cam was the best, then of late Gabbert seems to be the favorite flavor. Then there is my particular favorite, character. Why does Newton have bad character? Is it because schools wanted to buy him? Absolutely no proof exists that he entertained such discussion and even less that he actually took anything. Mallett’s stock, at least according to the ESPN experts, is in an absolute free fall. It seems somewhere along the testing process, Mallett acknowledged that he had smoked pot. At least he was honest, unlike some that denied ever doing so, I am  sure.

The winner in the character assault has been Gabbert. The golden boy that reminds me of Ryan Leaf has seen his ESPN stock skyrocket with the attacks on the SEC boys. Is this an attack on the Southeastern conference? Its us against the world, life  is tough I guess, when you are at the top. Gabbert ran almost strictly out of shotgun in a spread offense at Missouri. He lost most of the big games he played in and most importantly refused to take part in some aspects of the NFL combine. Where does Gabbert rank among the quarterbacks in Thursday’s draft? In my book, he should be either 2nd or 3rd quarterback taken. More specifically, despite the campaign from ESPN, he will be 2nd or 3rd quarterback taken…. not first.

Write it down, take it to the bank, Cam Newton is going first to the Carolina Panthers. Sure they took Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen last year, but you don’t pass on a once in a lifetime talent like Newton. Clausen was one of the most highly regarded high school quarterbacks in recent years and enjoyed great success in South Bend. Is Carolina even considering Gabbert? No. Why? Because they’re not sure he’s better than  what they already have. If Cam was gone and I was in dire need of a quarterback, I would consider Mallett instead of Gabbert. Maybe its the SEC in me.

What about the rest of the quarterbacks? Sure, if we’re talking late in the 2nd round and the franchise fate isn’t relying on the pick.  In my opinion, Jake Locker is the best of the rest. Reminds me somewhat of Heath Shuler, which is a bad thing, but we couldn’t have another one of him could we?  Taking Locker in the 2nd round isn’t as painful as the Redskins taking the Congressman with the 3rd overall pick in the 1994 draft. I am convinced that the Shuler pick and the subsequent Michael Westbrook selection with the 4th overall pick the following year put  Norv Turner in a hole too deep to ever recover from. Next Troy Aikman and Michael Irvin? Hardly.

What left? Andy Dalton from TCU? West Coast guy -which is code for- has a weak arm. Led the TCU look at me campaign. Again probably the SEC in me. Christian Ponder? Never delivered up to potential at Florida State. Why now? Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick? Small school competition leaves a big question mark in my mind. I know, it’s an SEC thing. I could see New England with one of its twenty picks, or whatever they have stockpiled, taking a chance, or Indianapolis. Need to start grooming the replacements for Tom Brady and Peyton Manning right? Since they are both going to play as long as Favre did, you have room to miss.

Next, we will review the running back candidates.

Rolen To DL, What’s Next?

The Reds have placed third baseman Scott Rolen on the 15 day disabled list with a strained left shoulder.

Analysis: Scott Rolen hasn’t been the most productive fantasy player this year hitting just .217 with two home runs, however, he has scored 11 runs and driven in 12. In standard leagues it is a bit of a question on whether to drop Rolen but you cannot deny that the Reds’ lineup and ballpark boost Rolen’s value. In deeper leagues he is a must keep and a great buy low option being available in about fifty percent of fantasy leagues nationwide. As for replacements, Angels’ third baseman Alberto Callaspo is hitting .303 and is still getting plenty of at-bats. Callaspo is the clear batting average third base option on the wire. The other third baseman in LA is the surging Casey Blake. Blake has four multi hit games in his last five contests. Blake has already scored 15 runs in just 14 games and has also been hitting behind Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp atop that Dodger order which is great news for runs scored totals. Blake may be 37 years old but he still has pop in his bat and he is available in over ninety percent of fantasy leagues.

Projection: Scott Rolen does get banged up a lot but when healthy he rakes. I like keeping Rolen and playing the hot hand until he gets off of the DL but Callaspo and Blake still have long term value.

Feliz to DL, who will close for Texas Rangers?

2010 Rookie of the Year Neftali Feliz went on the 15-day DL with shoulder inflammation today, and the immediate question becomes, who replaces him as the closer?

Analysis: There seems to be three choices here; Darren O’Day and Pedro Strop, and Arthur Rhodes. Strop has a sensational line (1.68 ERA, .118 BAA), but a monstrous 1.50 WHIP. O’day’s numbers (2.84 ERA, .250 BAA, 1.58 WHIP) are worse.

Strop seems to be too loose with no runners on base, indicative of his 8th inning last night – 2 walks, a single, and a sacrifice fly. He’s still raw, but never discount a 96 mph fastball to close out the 9th inning.

O’Day has struggled so far this season. He has walked 4 in 6.1 innings, while he walked 12 all last season in 62 innings. His velocity is down a little bit, down from the low 90’s to the high 80’s, and that’s having an impact on his control. Maybe the adrenaline of the 9th inning will get that little extra “oomph” on O’Day’s fastball that made him so dominant last season.

Rhodes is the most experienced arm in the bullpen. He hasn’t started a game since 1997. He was an All-Star for the first time last season, and is probably the first choice to close. He’s got the mental toughness needed for the position, but is the softest thrower of the three.

Projection: Manager Ron Washington loves to play matchups. The best guess is that if there’s a save situation with 2 or more right-handed batters, he’ll go with Strop or O’Day. If there’s 2 or more left-handed batters, he’ll go to Rhodes. Either way, Feliz isn’t expected to miss more than the 2 weeks he’ll be on the DL. I wouldn’t expect any reliever to get more than 3 saves in that span, so it’s not worth picking up a middle reliever.

Is Pronk Back?

Travis Hafner is hitting .344 with 4 HR, 11 R and 10 RBI in just seventeen games this season. So is Pronk back or is this just a hot streak?

Analysis: Travis Hafner is walking less and striking out more than his career averages. Hafner is also putting up an unsustainable .415 BABIP and he’s swinging at 27.9% of pitches outside the strike zone, eight percent above his career average. We also have to consider that Hafner hasn’t had a year with 500 plate appearances or 20 home runs since 2007. It really is just a matter of time before the slugger ends up on the disabled list. You can ride the hot streak if you like but reality is going to catch up to him sooner than later. You cannot swing at junk all year, maintain an ungodly BABIP, walk less and strike out more and expect positive results by seasons end. If Hafner can stay healthy you’re still looking at a guy without position flexibility being a DH and a player that won’t reach thirty bombs or a .290 batting average.

Projection: The injury history concerns me the most but if you insist on not dealing Pronk than you should expect a .275 batting average, 20 home runs and 60 RBI at the end of the rainbow for you. He’s not going to stay healthy.