NFL Draft Day Mock

 

The 2011 NFL draft is finally upon us. With labor strife grinding league activities to a halt, the NFL draft has become even more center stage. No free agency, no trades, no mini-camps, just the draft. Without a doubt, trades will be made tonight, no player trades, not even trades involving selected players, just draft pick for draft pick. Rather than try to project tonight’s trades, which would be a shot in the dark, our mock is based on order as of deadline.

FantasySP takes a closer look with our own mock draft of tonight’s first round.

1. Carolina (2-14) Cam Newton, QB, Auburn University/ The selection of Newton #1 is the only sure thing tonight. Perhaps the pick gets traded, but #1 overall will be Newton.
2. Denver (4-12) Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama/ A strong combine and consistency over several seasons vaulted Dareus over previous favorite Nick Fairley.
3. Buffalo (4-12) Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M/ The Bills are considering Blaine Gabbert, but can’t pass up the pass rush specialist. Ryan Fitzpatrick has surprised at QB for Buffalo, allowing them to focus on defense.
4. Cincinnati (4-12) AJ Green, WR, Georgia/ Is Terrell Owens done? Is Ocho Cinco going to stick with soccer? Green may be good enough to convince Carson Palmer to return.
5. Arizona (5-11) Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri/ This selection changes the remainder of the entire first round. LSU’s Patrick Peterson could go here, but if the Cards want Larry Fitzgerald long-term, they need to do this.
6. Cleveland (5-11) Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU/ If Arizona passes on the stud corner, could Cleveland pass? Would team with last years high #1 Joe Haden giving the Browns elite cover corners for a decade.
7. San Francisco (6-10) Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska/ Is big, athletic and physical, but cover skills are doubted by some. Even so, a productive corner is hard to pass up, especially at a position of need.
8. Tennessee (6-10) Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn/ Was projected as top overall pick early in the process. The Titans need a quarterback, but have had success with recent defensive selections from Auburn.
9. Dallas (6-10) Tyron Smith, OT, USC/  As usual, Jerry Jones with smoke screens and misdirection on eve of draft. Offensive tackle was only hole entering last season, time to plug it.
10. Washington (6-10) Julio Jones, WR, Alabama/ Skins need a lot, and limited picks = every pick must count. With Santana Moss slowing (and a free agent) and a pair of 2nd round busts at WR several years ago, Jones would become immediate go to guy.
11. Houston (6-10) Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina/ Everyone’s favorite defensive end in the class. Only drawback was the suspension in 2010.
12. Minnesota (6-10) JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin/ Amazed scouts at the combine. Is big, fast and nasty. Could learn from one of the best already entrenched at right end. With trades right around the corner, the Vikes wait for Donovan McNabb.
13. Detroit (6-10) Cameron Jordan, DE, California/ Another “must have” on the corner. Jordan was a one man wrecking crew for the Golden Bears and climbed even  higher on boards after the combine.
14. St. Louis (7-9) Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri/ The run on ends continue with the versatile Smith. The Rams could use a WR and would take Green or Jones, but need to address defense after a lot of attention to offense in recent drafts.
15. Miami (7-9) Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas/ The Dolphins say they need a new running back, but they need a quarterback more. Talk of Mallett slipping to 2nd round or further are ridiculous. Andy Dalton is not near the talent Mallett is.
16. Jacksonville (8-8) Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue/ The run on defensive end’s continues with Big Ten defensive lineman of the year Kerrigan. The academic All-American figures to fit much better in a 4-3.
17. New England (14-2) — from Oak Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama/ The Patriots with the first of three picks in the top 33 of the draft. This gift coming from Oakland in the Richard Seymour trade. Think Emmitt Smith with this Heisman Trophy winner.
18. San Diego (9-7) Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor/ Every 3-4 team is yearning for this monster. 6’3″ 335 with decent mobility, perfect fit for the triangle in the middle of the Chargers defense.
19. New York Giants (10-6) Anthony Castonzo, OT.Boston College/One of three offensive tackles projected in the first round, Castonzo could step right in for the G-men. New York thrives on depth and versatility along both lines.
20. Tampa Bay (10-6) Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson/ IF healthy, the steal of the draft. Long considered the top player in the draft, injury has forced Bowers further and further down war room boards. Great addition after two very high defensive line picks a year ago.
21. Kansas City (10-6) Danny Watkins, OL, Baylor/Past high picks Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey would combine for a stout run defense in the 3-4.
22. Indianapolis (10-6) Nate Solder, OT, Colorado/Prototype size, 6’8″ 320, for a tackle. Was selected Big 12 Lineman of the year by conference coaches. Peyton Manning is a happy man tonight.
23. Philadelphia (10-6) Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado/ Didn’t post an interception in 2010, but was only thrown at 20 times. Allowed only one TD in man coverage all season.

24. New Orleans (11-5) Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois/ Intrigues many teams with versatility to perform in 3-4 and 4-3 fronts. Breakout senior season culminating with selection on ESPN All-Bowl team.
25. Seattle (7-9) Jake Locker, QB, Washington/ Perhaps Matt Hasselbeck comes back, but what better long term answer than the homegrown Husky. Charlie Whitehurst is not the  future of the franchise.
26. Baltimore (12-4) Akeem Ayers, LB, UCLA/ Baltimore also considered a wide receiver. Insurance pick for last year’s top choice Sergio Kindle.
27. Atlanta (13-3) Mike Pouncey, C, Florida/ The Falcons complete the rebuild of the O-line. High priority to keep Matt Ryan upright and healthy.
28. New England (14-2) Cameron Heyward, DL, Ohio State/ Son of “Iron Head” has a huge upside. Versatile to lineup anywhere along the D-line.
29. Chicago (11-5) Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State/ A perfect fit as the Bears rebuild the interior of the defensive line. The strongest player in college football.
30. New York Jets (11-5) Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina/ Time to give up on injury prone interior lineman and take a chance on “marvelous” Marvin. Stock fell due to  2010 suspension.
31. Green Bay (10-6) Adrian Clayborn, DL, Iowa/ The leader of the most talented defensive line in college football. Yet another piece in arguably the best young defense in the NFL.
32. Pittsburgh (12-4) Aaron Williams, CB, Texas/ Steelers brass have let it be known Williams is their’s if available at this spot. May fit better at safety.

Tomorrow, we wrap  up the week with a look back at how the first round fared.

Rangers lose another arm, O’Day to 60-day DL

The Texas Rangers placed right-handed setup pitcher Darren O’Day on the 60-day DL today with a torn labrum in his left hip.

Aside from one of the best chants in baseball when he pitches, O’Day had become a viable part of the Rangers’ bullpen. With Alexei Ogando moved to the rotation, combined with Mark Lowe’s ineffectiveness and Neftali Feliz’s injury, O’Day was arguably the best righty left in the bullpen.

Apparently O’Day has had this injury for years, but it flared up after his scoreless inning Tuesday night, prompting the Rangers to place him on the disabled list.

Analysis: With 6 wins and a 2.03 ERA last season, O’Day was a decent option for those fantasy owners who like to play the middle-relievers-as-a-starter strategy. But through 7.1 innings in 2011, he had walked 4 batters and given up 7 hits. He walked 12 all of last year in over 60 innings.

This move won’t affect too many fantasy owners, since he was owned in just 5% of Yahoo Leagues (far more than most middle relievers), but it does thrust Pedro Strop into a more prominent role. Strop has strong strikeout/inning potential, with a 10.9K /9 IP over his minor league career. He’s struggled with command so far in 2011 with 6 walks in 6 innings, but has struck out 8 and only allowed 2 hits.

Strop is worth keeping an eye on, as his strikeout per inning rate is very valuable in rotisserie leagues.

Projection (Strop): 48 innings, 3 wins, 3 saves, 2.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 60 strikeouts

 

Broxton Still The Closer

After General Manager Ned Colleti said he was removing Jonathan Broxton from the closer’s role following a blown save against the Marlins, Manager Don Mattingly has endorsed Broxton as the team’s closer.

Analysis: Broxton will still be the closer but he is suffering with elbow soreness. Broxton hasn’t pitched well this year but he has only blown one save. His strikeouts are down and his walks are up but we have to accept the fact that Broxton isn’t an elite closer, he’s just a high strikeout closer. What really is concerning is his velocity- it’s down across the board. You really cannot drop him at this point but it would serve you well to go closer shopping on the wire. When Broxton gets his act together for a stretch you should sell high. The only case where I would consider keeping the right hander would be if his fastball and slider velocity return to form. Patience in this case is key. He is capable of top ten closer numbers but he may not have the job down the road either.

Projection: If Broxton can get his act together expect 27 saves, 75 K’s, 3.6 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP.

NFL Draft: WR’s and TE’s

 

Need a wide receiver in a bad way? Your prayers have been answered! Only one problem, there are only two available.

Sure there are many more that will be selected, but Julio Jones and A.J. Green are far about the rest. How far you ask?  The Southeastern Conference dynamic duo are both deserving of top 10 selections in tomorrow’s opening round.  As for the others, there really is no telling how far into the draft before they are chosen.

Jones and Green were both elite high school prospects that excelled in the SEC. Both added to their aura with outstanding performances at the NFL combine. Most analysts have Green rated as the higher of the two, but Jones’ off the charts performance at the NFL combine leaves some doubt.

Both players statistics were tampered in the run happy SEC. Green brings more leaping ability and straight line speed, while Jones is as physical a wide receiver as I have seen. Either player can turn a position of weakness into an area of strength for any NFL club. Both have had off the field incidents and injury concerns, but not enough to affect draft position.

The next wide receiver off the board will likely be Maryland’s Torrey Smith. Smith. Smith has decent size, 6’1″ 204, but its his 4.4 speed that has dazzled scouts. Smith brings big play skills and LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson is his only rival as a kick returner. St. Louis, Cincinnati and Baltimore have held private workouts for Smith, who figures to go late tomorrow night, or at top of second round on Friday. I feel he would be a perfect fit with the Ravens. Baltimore has aging receivers and lacked a big play threat on offense in 2010.

Jonathan Baldwin fits the prototype with measurables rivaling Green and Jones. Baldwin never took it to the next level of Pittsburgh, but that was more an indictment of the talent around him and the Panthers offense than his own shortcomings.  Baldwin turning in a sub 4.5 at the combine even with size approaching that of a tight end. Baldwin made an impact as a freshman, which drew the obvious comparisons to his predecessor Larry Fitzgerald. It wouldn’t surprise if he ends up the best of the 2011 receivers, when it’s all said and done.

If looking for a tight end in this draft, two catch my attention. Notre Dame’s Kyle Rudoph and Arkansas’ D.J.Williams appear very capable of performing in a big way at the next level. Rudolph is getting first round attention despite missing most of  the 2010 season with a serious hamstring injury. Rudolph is an every down tight end, while huge, 6’6″ 260 pounds, he also can move with a 4.8 forty. While Rudolph arrived in South Bend as a blue chipper, Williams climb has been a long one. After serious domestic problems at home, Williams and his mother randomly chose Fayetteville as his destination from his home state of Texas. DJ appears to be a perfect fit for those needing a combo athlete that can contribute at H-Back/Fullback and tight  end.

Tomorrow, FantasySP projects the first round with our very own NFL mock draft!

NFL Draft: Running backs

According to the experts, if you are looking for a running back on Thursday, you are out of luck. Not so fast my friend!

At least one team will land a sure-fire, heavy-duty, every down back when the NFL draft commences later this week. Alabama’s Mark Ingram is that man. Detractors point to Ingram’s pedestrian time in the forty, however he was best at the combine in the ten yard burst. Why is this important? Ten yards gets Ingram into the hole and the second level on running plays.

Ingram burst upon the scene during Alabama’s 2009 National Championship run, which ultimately landed him the Heisman Trophy. There was considerable talk about Ingram being a repeat winner, however multiple factors, including injury derailed his efforts. Ingram’s overall numbers may be also been impacted by backup Trent Richardson. Richardson shared some of the work load and enters the 2011 season as arguably the top back in college football and a heavily sought after pro prospect.

While the 2011 class of running backs available is not a deep one, it is by no means bare. A pair of big backs should go off the board on Friday, at some point in the second round. Ilinois’ Mikel Leshoure exploded into the national spotlight in November at Wrigley Field. The 6’0″ 230 pounder rushing for an amazing 330 yards versus Northwestern. Leshoure’s effort was the most in a single game in Ilini history and was also the most by any back in 2010. Leshoure is sturdy enough to be an every down back, but may settle into a committee situation.  Kansas State’s Daniel Thomas is next on my board at the position. Thomas has excellent size, 6’0″ 230 pounds, but a 4.6 forty time may scare some.

Virginia Tech’s Ryan Williams is in a category of his own among the elite running backs in the draft. Williams has some power, but also has game changing ability in terms of athleticism and quickness. Williams doesn’t have game breaking top end speed (4.5 forty) but has more wiggle than the big backs. Williams rushed for nearly 1700 yards in 2009, but was slowed by a hamstring injury much of last season. Had the two seasons had been reversed, we would be talking about Williams as a top ten selection.

Only two other backs seem to be destined for selection on Friday, when rounds two and three take place. Oklahoma’s DeMarco Murray was of the most heralded high school backs in the nation and delivered for the Sooners, setting school records in all-purpose yards and touchdowns in his career. Murray has both size, 5’11” 215 pounds, and speed, sub 4.4 forty at the combine, but is not a bulldozer or a true speed back at OU. Murray could have posted bigger numbers at another school, as Oklahoma spreads it around with so many weapons. Injury concerns also are part of the package when teams consider Murray. Oklahoma State’s Kendall Hunter rounds out the top of the running back list after an explosive career in Stillwater. Of the elite backs under discussion, Hunter most fits the bill of a third down, or situational back. Never count out Cowboy running backs, as Thurman can point to the great successes of his predecessors, Barry Sanders and  Thurman Thomas.

No fullbacks will be drafted before the weekend. As teams at every level from Pop Warner on up move to the spread, traditional fullbacks are a dying breed. One thing is for certain, fullbacks almost never are a part of you fantasy football game plan.

Tomorrow, we will take a look at the receivers and tight ends.