Clay Buchholz allowed 3 earned runs in 6.0 innings of work on Thursday afternoon against the Twins. Buchholz is now sporting a 6.17 ERA this season through 8 starts.
Analysis: The 6.17 ERA isn’t as bad as everyone is making it out to be. His xFIP is 4.24 this season and 4.10 for his career. We have to take a look at what is causing the inflated ERA.
First off, Buchholz’s strand rate is 64% this year and 73% for his career. That can be improved upon easily. Also, Buchholz’s BABIP is at a career high this year at .385, his career average is 100 points lower at .285. This is also another issue that should naturally work itself out. Buchholz is back to throwing at the same velocity he was last year and the strikeouts are gradually coming back. He has stuck out 14 batters in his last 16.2 innings pitched and now has his K/9 rate over 7 batters per nine which is slightly above his career average.
It is apparent that Clay Buchholz doesn’t have his best stuff at the moment but he still makes a solid lower tier fantasy option. He is available in 30-60% of fantasy leagues.
The Tennessee ground game and the Jacksonville passing game received some much needed help in round two of the 2014 NFL draft.
Analysis: The Titans picked up running back Bishop Sankey in the second round. Sankey should get tons of carries this year with the aging and mediocre Shonn Greene coming off of yet another knee surgery. Keep in mind that the Tennessee offensive line ranks in the top third of the NFL and Jake Locker is developing into a solid quarterback which teams will have to respect. It will all depend on Sankey’s ADP but his fantasy future looks bright.
The Jags picked up wide outs Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson in the second round. Lee is a fine athlete and may have a good career but too many brainwashed couch experts wanted him to go in the mid to late first round. If Lee had played his college ball in Iowa the hype just wouldn’t be there, period. Regardless, Lee could be on the end of 100 targets this coming season. However, Allen Robinson is the intriguing one here. He’s 6’2″ 220 pounds and has a 39 inch vertical to go along with great hands and exceptional body control. Outside of Cecil Shorts the Jags have nothing out wide so the Lee/Robinson training camp/preseason positional battle will be fun to monitor.
Kelvin Benjamin and Brandin Cooks were the clear fantasy winners in the first round of the 2014 draft.
Analysis: Steve Smith, Ted Ginn and Brandon LaFell have all moved on and now Cam Newton has a shortage of aerial weapons. Greg Olsen is still in the mix but the addition of the 6’5″ 240 pound Kelvin Benjamin is most welcome. Yes, the Panthers are a run first team but Cam Newton has thrown for over 3,300 yards and recorded a passer rating north of 84 in each of his first three years in the league. Benjamin could be looking at a 60 reception, 900 yard, 7 touchdown rookie campaign with room for upside pending on how heavily targeted he is.
The Saints on the other hand attempted the fourth most passes in the NFL last year. Lance Moore is gone so it appears that Brandin Cooks will be the third passing option for Drew Brees behind Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham. The 5’10” Cooks ran a 4.33 40 at the combine(second overall) and also ran a 3.81 20 yard shuttle(first overall). Cooks has more natural playmaking ability than Kenny Stills and with Darren Sproles also gone Sean Payton is sure to find creative ways to get Cooks involved. Sproles recorded 71 receptions last year and Moore notched 37 in thirteen games… those receptions have to go somewhere.
Today we are introducing a new feature to see which fantasy players are overachieving and underachieving. Below you’ll see why this matters, how it works, and how you can use this data to manage your team moving forward. (At the time of this writing, fantasy baseball examples are shown but the same features are available for fantasy football, fantasy basketball, and fantasy hockey.)
Why it Matters
Understanding which players are overachieving and underachieving is extremely important when it comes to managing your team for future success. If your team consists of too many overachieving players, then you’ll quickly realize that the fast start your team had is bound to come to an abrupt end.
On the flip-side, if your team consists of too many underachieving players, then you may have to dig yourself out of a hole as you wait for these player’s to return to form. Consistently starting a player who has not performed well, but has high expectations may ensure your team continues its slow start.
A fantasy team will inevitably have both types of players and it is important to start players during their hot streaks and bench players who are failing to live up to expectations. Managing your team requires daily effort to stay on top of such trends.
How to Detect Overachievers and Underachievers
When analyzing your team’s roster, it’s absolutely critical to put personal feelings aside. Sure you had high hopes for Billy Hamilton during the baseball draft, but your team needs players who are performing well right now.
The Fantasy Assistant makes this easy by using colors to determine who is performing better, worse, or on par with their expectations.
Notice the green and red colors?
The picture above shows a small portion of my starting lineup. Player ratings in red are currently underachieving and player’s in green are currently overachieving. Players who have no color next to their rating indicates that they are performing close to their expectations. If you mouse over each rating, a more detailed explanation is revealed.
In addition to a revised lineup, we are also introducing a brand new section which is called “Over Under” so you can research the best and worst players by position. The EXPR number indicates how much worse or better the player is performing based on expectations.
Third Base OverachieversThird Base Underachievers
How to use this Knowledge
As mentioned earlier, the most obvious way to use this knowledge is to bench underachievers and start overachievers when its in your favor. However, you should also use this data to pick-up players on the waiver wire who can give your team an immediate boost.
A perfect example of this has been Yangervis Solarte for the early start of the 2014 baseball season. Lately, he’s already come back down to earth so it’s probably best if you go ahead and drop him since he has already cooled off.
Another possible way to utilize this data is to help develop trades based on this information. An irrational or impatient fantasy player often makes mistakes when a player on their team is performing poorly. There may be an opportunity to snag Adrian Beltre or Manny Machado for a discount if their owner wants to get rid of them before they start to perform closer to expectations and fully come back from their injuries.
There are always players drafted in the first round that land on the wrong team in regards to pure fantasy numbers… this year is no exception.
Analysis: The Lions drafted tight end Eric Ebron with the tenth overall pick. Ebron is a great athlete but his fantasy situation isn’t the best. Detroit has 6’5″ Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate and the 6’6″ Kris Durham out wide to go along with the 6’5″ Brandon Pettigrew and the 6’7″ Joseph Fauria at tight end. The Lions have tons of red zone options and Ebron will struggle to score even though he can make a significant impact this year.
Wide out Odell Beckham was drafted twelfth overall by the New York Giants. Thirty-three year old Eli Manning is on the decline, period. He turned the ball over 29 times last year and recorded a 69.4 passer rating. The New York running game is trash and their offensive line is mediocre at best. Victor Cruz is still the number one option but Beckham will be fighting for targets with third year player Rueben Randle, Mario Manningham and Jerrel Jernigan. Randle caught 6 touchdowns on 41 receptions last year and is a former second round pick. Jernigan caught 19 balls on 27 targets and had 3 total touchdowns in the final three games of the season.
