Mike Stanton Brings The Lumber

After a historic .248 ISO as 20 year old, Mike Stanton is poised to bring the lumber in 2011 but what exactly should we expect?

Analysis: Mike Stanton hit 22 homers in just 100 big league games last year and he also hit 21 bombs in just 53 Double A games. That’s 43 homers combined as a 20 year old, nearly unheard of. His walk rate of 8.6% with the Marlins wasn’t as expected but it should be around the 12% mark this year which will help his run and stolen base totals. As long as his strikeout rate doesn’t go up from 34.3%, Stanton will hit 35 home runs rather easily. Like many power hitters he’s not going to give you any batting average help in roto leagues but a handful of steals should help ease a batting average that should fall in the .260-.270 range. Stanton is a high reward outfielder with his seemingly limitless home run power so grabbing him over guys like Andre Ethier or Alex Rios who will be down this year may be in order. Don’t be disappointed if Jay Bruce falls into your lap after Stanton goes early. Bruce’s home run potential this year is in the mid thirties.

Projection: I don’t think Stanton is capable of hitting less than 33 homers this year which makes him the low risk outfielder that he is, but I doubt he can reach 45 bombs as a 21 year old with the pitching in the NL East. Expect a .265 BA, 38 HR, 105 RBI, 90 R, 6 SB.

The Terrific Rebounding of Reggie Evans is Back

After missing a big part of this current season Reggie Evans is back in action for the Toronto Raptors.

Analysis: Reggie has always been a great rebounder, always in the top when it came to rebounds per minute statistics, but that didn’t exactly help his case for fantasy basketball. That is because per minute boards doesn’t mean a thing for fantasy stats. This season he has had a bit of a resurgence actually getting a significant amount of minutes for the Raptors.  Now his rebounding stats are actually worthwhile, and if you need boards he is a great option. Reggie is averaging over 12 boards a game this season, which actually ties him for fourth in the NBA in rebounding (he’s tied with Blake Griffin). Pretty impressive numbers for a undersized power forward with a career average of 19 minutes a game. He’s back with the Raptors after missing a big part of the season and looks like he hasn’t missed a beat, when it comes to rebounding anyways. Today against Charlotte Reggie ripped down 17 boards. Despite his amazing rebounding Reggie doesn’t do much else. His shooting percentages are awful, he can’t block to save his life, and he can’t put up points very well either. The only other redeeming quality that Reggie possesses is getting the occasional steal.

Projection: With Reggie Evans you get a guaranteed bunch of rebounds, but he hurts you in almost every other category. If you need to catch up in rebounding and can take a hit everywhere else than take a chance on Reggie. Otherwise his hustle doesn’t really translate into the fantasy realm.

It’s time to buy low on Derek Jeter

Derek Jeter had arguably the worst season of his career at the plate in 2010. His .270  batting average was 40 points below his career average, his 10 home runs tied for the fewest in a season, his slugging percentage was the lowest of his career, and he struck out the most times since 2005. His advanced metrics were down too. His BABIP was a career-low, as was his runs created per-game and line-drive percentage. He also led the league in outs created.

So it’s a great time to buy low on the New York Yankee captain.

Analysis: Jeter can still hit. His batting average from 2005-2009 was .322, 50 points better than 2010. If Girardi has any sense, he’ll lead off with Brett Gardner and let Jeter hit 2nd. Jeter has made an adjustment to his swing from last season which will hopefully help his strikeout numbers.

Beyond the top three shortstops (Ramirez, Tulowitzki, and Reyes), there are nothing but question marks. Jeter will hit atop baseball’s most potent lineup, and has all the skills to bounce back from a sub-par year.

What’s encouraging is Jeter’s contact percentage in 2010 was the same as his career average, but his BABIP was 50 points lower than his career average, meaning he was a victim of bad luck more than anything else. If his stats normalize to their career averages in 2011, Jeter should far exceed his 6th round draft status. He’s currently going for only $25 in auction drafts, and can easily outperform that value.

Projection: .311 / 14 home runs / 70 RBI’s / 22 steals / 110 runs scored

What do you think? Will Jeter bounce back from the worst season of his career? Or is he finally on the way down?

Jamie Benn Is On Fire

Dallas forward Jamie Benn has been on fire since his return from injury in all seven fantasy categories.

Analysis: Since his return from a shoulder injury suffered in late January, Jamie Benn is one of the hottest forwards in the world of fantasy hockey. Benn has 6 goals and 3 assists with 32 shots on goal in his last nine games. He’s everything you’re looking for down the stretch. He has center and left wing eligibility, he’s getting tons of ice time and he’s available in about half of all fantasy leagues. Dallas is right in the middle of a heated playoff race in the western conference and the Stars need all of their best players to step it up with Brad Richards only three games in to his shaky return from a concussion. One of the most over looked categories among forwards in fantasy hockey is definitely penalty minutes and Jamie Benn is racking them up with ten PIM over his last eight games. All in all Jamie Benn is producing in seven fantasy categories and he’s widely available.

Projection: Expect just under a point per game with tons of ice time from Jamie Benn in the Stars remaining thirteen games. He shoots in bunches and he gets lots of power play minutes so if you have a team need at left wing or center, Jamie Benn may be the right fit for you.

Erik Karlsson, A Future Star

If it wasn’t for Erik Karlsson playing on a team with the NHL’s worst goal differential he would be owned in every single fantasy league. Karlsson is already a five category fantasy stud in just his second year in the league and his play as of late has been more than solid.

Analysis: Erik Karlsson’s minus 32 rating on the year is miserable, however, two other Ottawa denfeseman are minus 26 or worse, so he’s not alone on that front. Karlsson is just 20 years old and he could be one of the best fantasy defenseman in the NHL sooner than later. Karlsson is seventh among NHL defenseman with 11 goals, fourteenth in points with 38, eleventh in shots with 151 and twelfth in power play points with 20. To put it simply he’s on the fast track to top ten fantasy defenseman status if Ottawa can get their act together from the front office down. I couldn’t name seven defenseman that I’d want on my fantasy squad for the next ten years in front of Erik Karlsson, he’s just that special.

Projection: He’s going to continue to dominate every category with the exception of plus/minus and penalty minutes this year and going forward I see many 70 point seasons like Mike Green.