The BCS of College Hoops (RPI)

What if College Basketball used RPI in the same way College Football uses the BCS?

For those wondering, RPI stands for Ratings Percentage Index, which is a quantity used to rank teams based on wins, losses and strength of schedule.

The BCS has been under fire since its inception in 1998. Many prefer a playoff system which is used almost exclusively in college sports, except for Division I college football. I thought we should take a look at what Selection Sunday might look like if it was based soley on RPI. The numbers are obviously fluid, as all contenders are currently embroiled in conference tournaments.

It would not be fair to take a look at simply the top 68 as nearly half the bids will go to automatic quaifiers from conference tournaments, most of which never break the RPI elite. For now, lets just look at the projected Sweet 16, based simply on RPI. As a bonus, for fun, potential NBA prospects for the 2011 draft will be noted next to their team to keep your fantasy fire going.

East Regional: Prudential Center,  Newark, NJ

1- Duke– Kylie  Irving PG, Nolan Smith G, Kyle Singler SF, Mason Plumlee PF

2- Brigham Young– Jimmer Fredette SG

3- Wisconsin– Jon Leuer PF, Jordan Taylor PG

4- Georgetown– Austin Freeman SG

Southeast Regional: New Orleans Arena, NOLA

1- Ohio State– Jared Sullinger PF, William Buford SG, David Lighty SG, Deshaun Thomas SF

2- Purdue– JaJuan Johnson PF. E’twaun Moore G

3- Pittsburgh– Brad Wanamaker G

4- Syracuse– Rick Jackson PF, Kris Joseph SF, Fab Melo C

Southwest Regional: Alamodome, San  Antonio, TX

1- Kansas– Marcus Morris SF, Markieff Morris PF,  Thomas Robinson PF, Josh Shelby PG, Tyshawn Taylor PG

2- Notre Dame– Ben Hansbrough G

3- Florida– Chandler Parson SF, Patric Young C, Kenny Boynton JR SG

4- Connecticut– Kemba Walker PG, Alex Oriakhi C

West Regional: Honda Center, Anaheim, California

1- San Diego State– Kawhi Leonard SF

2- North Carolina– Harrison Barnes SF, Tyler Zeller C, Reggie Bullock SF

3- Kentucky– Enes Kanter C (Europe), Terrence Jones SF, Brandon Knight G, Doron Lamb SG

4- Texas– Tristan Thompson PF, Jordan Hamilton SG/SF, Cory Joseph PG

Next week, we will take a look at each of the regions to help you along with your March Madness brackets! Until then, enjoy a GREAT weekend of college basketball!

Chris Young Could Be a Steal for Your Rotation

The former All-Star’s continued battle back from shoulder surgery appears to be on the right track, which could be a huge plus for both Mets fans and Fantasy owners.

Analysis: A towering presence on the mound, the 6’10” Young is all but a shoe-in for a spot in the Amazin’s 2011 rotation. After undergoing right shoulder surgery in August of ’09, the 31-year-old finally made it back to the mound last September, going 2-0 in four very impressive starts which took place during a Padres playoff chase. Young’s performance in these pressure games brought back memories of his first two seasons in San Diego (’06 and ’07) where he struck out 331 batters over 352.1 innings, leading the league in hits allowed per nine innings both years. Never a true power arm despite his intimidating size, the big right-hander has added a splitter to his arsenal this spring in an effort to see more ground balls. Traditionally a fly ball pitcher, adding this lower in the strike zone option to the mix makes him that more dangerous to opposing hitters. His Grapefruit League progress has been very reassuring, allowing two runs (on two solo homers) over nine innings to date.

Projection: The 2011 Mets are a team rife with uncertainties and, to be fair, we have to place Young in that category. His sample size since returning from surgery, albeit enticing, is a small one. However, the indications that Young can return to his All-Star form are promising. Backed by a sometimes inconsistent yet potentially explosive offense and an average bullpen, the possibility for a comeback season is gaining steam with each spring appearance. Owners willing to take a flier on Young may end up pleasantly surprised to the tune of 12-14 victories and a low ERA, especially in spacious Citi Field.

Kubina Suspended, Pick Up Sekera

Tampa defenseman Pavel Kubina was suspended three games today for an elbow to the head in a game against Chicago Wednesday night.

Analysis: Pavel Kubina is your average fantasy defenseman. With just 22 points in 67 games, parting with Kubina should have been done weeks if not months ago. Although Kubina’s plus/minus was solid, losing him for three games makes you want to look elsewhere. Owned in just ten percent of fantasy leagues the red hot Buffalo defenseman Andrej Sekera is who you’re looking for. Sekera has amassed 2 goals and 8 assists in his last six games. Sekera is a plus 6 in that stretch with a solid 14 shots on goal. Sekera’s ice time is over twenty minutes a game although his power play minutes and points aren’t anything to write home about.

Projection: Kubina will return from suspenion the average fantasy defenseman that he is. Andrej Sekera is one of the hottest and most available fantasy defenseman in the NHL right now. Even if Sekera cools off just a bit the risk is worth it. Expect about a half of a point per game from Sekera the rest of the season with a solid plus/minus rating.

So much Sports to watch on TV, so little time!

 

Without a doubt this is one of the most exciting times of the year in sport. One of the few times of year where just about every sport in making news. Today is a great example with some prime viewing options.

We begin in beautiful Doral, Florida. Formally the home of the Doral Open, now the World Golf Championships. The TPC Blue Monster course hosting the two best American players of our generation, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson. The Masters is right around the corner and all eyes will be on Tiger and his continued struggles since his return. Tiger, a 3 time winner at Doral, hasn’t won since the Australian Masters in November of ’09.

The NBA has a marquee match up tonight just down the street at American Airlines Arena. Much focus in the Association has been on the Miami Heat struggles which were highlighted in the “crying game”. It won’t get any easier tonight when Kobe Bryant and the two-time defending champion Los Angeles Lakers come to town. LA arrives riding an eight game winning streak and head coach Phil Jackson has told the Heat that NBA stands for “No Boys Allowed”. Keep an  eye on Chris Bosh tonight, the Heat forward has been complaining a lot, guess he is weary of  watching Lebron James and Dwayne Wade isolate 1 on 5.

College Hoops continues towards its peak with all major conference tournaments on the floor today. The ACC, Big  Ten and Southeastern conference tournaments join the fun with many of the favorites enjoying a 1st round bye. North Carolina,  Duke, Ohio State, Florida and Kentucky the teams to watch.  ESPN’s Pat Forde has been doing a great job of tracking the potential title field with 145 teams remaining eligible for the 68 March Madness spots. If you get the chance, check out the Big East tourney which is in Day 3, but the top 4 seeds, including my national title sleeper Notre Dame, see their first action today. Sean McDonough, Jay Bilas and Bill Raftery are the announcers and are the best in the business.

For the hardcore Major League Baseball fan, Spring Training games are appearing on the tube in increasing frequency. With Fantasy Drafts and Auctions right around the corner, some scouting is certainly on the menu.

Not to be outdone, College Football teams continue to open Spring practice across the country. For your immediate viewing, mostly pro days here and there as we build towards a handful of Spring games that will be broadcast, most of which occur next month. With the NFL draft fast approaching, we are getting flooded with mock drafts.  Do yourself a favor, ignore the Mel Kiper Jr’s and Todd McShay’s of the world and turn to the NFL Network. Mike Mayock is without a doubt the best there is when it comes to player evaluation and X’s and O’s.

And finally there are the extremely boring NFL contract talks. If you enjoy talking heads speaking in front of large buildings maybe this is your thing. The 7-day extension to negotiate a new Collective Bargaining  Agreement ends tomorrow. A colleague of mine who is staking out the Federal Mediator’s office tells me that negotiations have deteriorated  to name calling and he wouldn’t be surprised to see the entire season cancelled.

So, with the NBA heading down the same path as the NFL, be sure to enjoy the plethora of options you have, before greed takes over.

The Jose Bautista Dilemma

Toronto Blue Jays outfielder/third baseman shocked Major League Baseball (and fantasy baseball) by unleashing a majors-best 54 home runs last season, seemingly out of nowhere. How “out of nowhere?”

From 2004-2009: 1754 at-bats, 59 home runs, 211 RBI’s, .729 OPS, 14% home run rate,  .3 Wins Above Replacement

2010 season stats: 569 at-bats, 54 home runs, 124 RBI’s, .995 OPS, 36% home run rate, 5.6 Wins Above Replacement

Analysis: Bautista has “one-year wonder” written all over him, at least for that kind of production. Why is that? His home run rate (% of hits that were home runs) was astronomical, even compared to the best power hitter today, Albert Pujols (whose career home run rate is 21.5%). Bautista’s BABIP was an abysmal .233.

The only encouraging stat in terms of continued production from 2010 was his on-base percentage, which was .378. After a terrible April, his K/BB ratio was almost exactly 1:1.  Teams will have to respect his patience and power, and unless Aaron Hill and Adam Lind rediscover their stroke, teams will pitch around Bautista. Expect an increase in his stolen bases because of this.

Strategy: There certainly is a place for Bautista, but it’s not in the 4th round where he’s currently drafted in most leagues. Even if his production drops off significantly, he can still hit 30 home runs and drive in 90-100, which are great numbers for a 3rd baseman. He’s currently the 36th player drafted in Yahoo! drafts, ahead of players like Ian Kinsler, CC Sabathia, and Jon Lester, all of which provide more value than Bautista. If he can be had in the late 5th round or later, he’s worth drafting, but not in the 3rd or 4th round.

Prediction: .258 / 33 home runs / 103 RBI’s / 99 runs / 15 steals.