Head for the Hill, Aaron Hill

Going into the 2010 fantasy baseball season, there were two prime breakout candidates at second base, Robinson Cano and Aaron Hill. Both players were coming off career years, and both players were worth selecting in about the 5th round. Cano went on to expand on his 2009 season, while Hill regressed, hitting below the Mendoza line with a drop of 40 RBI’s. Cano enters 2011 as a late 1st to early 2nd round pick, while Hill is available much later.

Analysis: Hill was a victim of bad luck more than anything else last season. His BABIP was .196, easily the lowest in baseball. In comparison, 110 major league players had BABIP of .290 or higher last year and only 7 were below .250.

What’s encouraging is that is the only stat that seems to be out of line for Hill’s career averages. In fact, he walked almost as many times in 2010 (41 in 528 at-bats) as he did in 2009 (42 in 682 at-bats). And despite his horrific batting average and on-base percentage, Hill hit the third-most home runs for 2nd baseman in 2010. He’s slotted to hit 5th behind Bautista and Lind, so there should be plenty of RBI opportunities.

Projection: Even if Hill raises his BABIP to the lower-end of “average”, he’ll still add 50 points to his batting average. He has elite power for his position, and with teams pitching cautiously to Jose Bautista, Hill will get every opportunity to drive in runs. As a 13th round pick, Hill will easily out-perform his draft ranking.

.265 / 31 home runs / 101 RBI’s / 91 runs / 4 steals

Chris Pronger Officially Out For Regular Season

After coming back from a right hand injury for four games, Chris Pronger has missed his last two games and is officially out for about a month.

Analysis: Chris Pronger originally suffered the small fracture in his right hand on Febuary 24th against the New York Islanders. He went on to play the next four games with the injury but now Philly is doing the wise thing in shutting him down. The Flyers last regular season game is April 9th so Pronger should be able to get back into action at the start of the first round of the eastern conference playoffs. From a fantasy perspective this leaves a pretty big hole on your team to fill. Pronger contributes in every fantasy category for skaters and is easily a top 10-15 defenseman.

Projection: Andrej Sekera of Buffalo is still hot and is widely available. He’s mostly good for points and shots on goal. Also, Andrew MacDonald of the Islanders is a good choice to pick up. He’s gets tons of ice time, his plus/minus has been great as of late and he too is widely available.

March Madness tips tonight!

 

No, don’t worry your brackets probably aren’t due yet.

Tonight’s action is more than your usual Play-In variety. While we do have the usual suspects, this time around the “First Four” includes some big boy programs too. In addition to the four lowest rated teams (UTSA, UALR, Alabama St and UNC Asheville) the “First Four” includes the last four At-Large teams as well.

Alabama Birmingham and Clemson play tonight at 9pm EST with the winner advancing to play West Virginia on Thursday. The selection of UAB has been under fire with teams like Virginia Tech and Colorado getting left out. The Blazers boast only one win vs RPI top 50 and lost to lowly East Carolina in their conference tournament. Clemson is led by the veteran backcourt of Andre Young and Demontez Stitt and should advance to play West Virginia. Tomorrow, Southern California takes on Virginia Commonwealth with the winner advancing to meet Georgetown.

Here are some interesting tidbits from the last 15 March Madness tournaments. (since 1996)

-1 Fewest #1 seeds in the Final Four (twice)

-1 Number of Final Fours without a top seed

-2 Most Championships. (UNC, Duke, Kentucky, Connecticut and Florida)

-3 Number of Final Four appearances by Kansas

-3 Number of #5 seeds, or lower, making it to Final Four

-5 Number of Final Fours with only one #1 seed participating.

-6 Most Final Four appearances: Michigan State and UNC

-33 Number of different schools appearing in Sweet 16

-35 Number of #9 seeds, or lower, advancing to Sweet 16

The 8 vs 9 game truly is a toss up, split 30-30

Most Sweet 16 apperances?

9 Kentucky and Kansas

8 Arizona

7 UNC and Syracuse

6  Texas

Finally, 10 different schools have been crowned champion.

If you need a handy TV guide, here you go! http://www.collegehoopsnet.com/ncaatournament/2011/tvguide.htm

March Madness: SouthEast Regional

The SouthEast Regional will culminate with the finals at the New Orleans Arena. Early round games will take place in Washington DC, Tuscon, Tampa and Denver.

While the Eastern Regional is without a doubt the strongest, the SouthEast Regional is by far the weakest. Pittsburgh was a suprising top seed after faltering in the Big East tournament, Florida despite closing strong perhaps a bit high as a #2. It doesn’t end there, Brigham Young despite All-Everything Jimmer Fredette is not the same team after losing big man Brandon Davies to suspension and #4 Wisconsin doesn’t strike fear in the hearts of the nation’s elite.

Lets take a look at your bracket: (upsets in italics)

1st Round:

#1 Pittsburgh over Play In (TBA)- As is well documented a #1 seed has never lost to a #16 and this is a perfect example of why.  UNC-Asheville/Little Rock winner will be Panther meat.

#2 Florida over #15 UCSB- The Gators are one of my sleepers, clicking at right time UF may be Final Four bound. The Gauchos who upset Long Beach State to quaify= one and done.

#3 BYU over #14 Wofford- Cougars are not what they were, but Jimmer is too much for Wofford. The “Minnesota Mafia” closed strong and have senior leadership, but c’mon Fredette isn’t going out in 1st round.

#13 Belmont over #4 Wisconsin– UPSET ALERT Tough draw for Badgers, Belmont is the real deal!  The Badgers 33 points and  <30% shooting from the floor in Big 10 tourney loss to Penn State cannot be overlooked.

#5 Kansas State over #12 Utah State- Love the Wildcats, if they are on watch out!  Aggies in tourney for 3rd straight year, but veterans don’t have size to deal with the Wildcats.

#6 St. Johns over #11 Gonzaga- Great 1st round matchup, gotta go with Steve Lavin here. The Bulldogs dancing for 13th straight season, four times in the Sweet 16, not this time.

#10 Michigan State over #7 UCLA– Spartans were pre season Final Four favorite, expect them to step it up. Having a hard time forgetting the Bruins blowout loss to Oregon in Pac 10 tourney opener.

#9 Old Dominion over #8 Butler– Another great opening round matchup, no Cinderella this time around. The Bulldogs dancing for the 5th straight year aren’t the same team that lost to Duke  in finals a year ago.

2nd Round:

#1 Pittsburgh over #9 Old Dominion- Panthers are a deep, physical team that relies on defense and rebounding.  The Monarchs have similar strengths but not enough.

#2 Florida over #10 Michigan State- The Gators were one of the hottest teams down the stretch and look to rebound after a 1st round exit a year ago.  All five starters returned from a year ago and UF’s only potential achilles heel is free throw shooting.

#6 St. Johns over #3 BYU– The Red Storm has 10 seniors and is battle tested with a plethora of close wins in Big East play.  St. Johns beat Duke, Notre Dame and Pitt this season, but the injury to DJ Kennedy cannot be overlooked.

#5 Kansas State over #13 Belmont- Its the Jacob Pullen show in Manhattan.  K-State with marquee wins over Texas and Kansas but are inconsistent at times, especially shooting the ball. This may be a close one as Belmont is the sleeper of the tourney.

Southest Semfinals:

#5 Kansas State over #1 Pittsburgh– UPSET ALERT I am going to go with the upside of K-State.  Pullen, the Big12 defensive player of the year is also a big time scorer. 6’8″ senior forward Curtis Kelly adds a nice option for Wildcat coach Frank Martin.

#2 Florida over #6 St. Johns- I am having difficulty with this matchup as they are two clubs that I really like to go deep in tournament. The difference in the end may be the absence of injured Red Storm swingman Kennedy.

Southeast Final:

#2 Florida over #5 Kansas State- If Pittsburgh does in fact go down early, its all Florida. The Gators are led by tournament tested coach Billy Donovan and the senior frontcourt.  SEC player of the year Chandler Parsons may lead them back in the Final Four.

Tomorrow we will handicap the Southwest Regional.

March Madness: East Regional Primer

 

Without a doubt, the East is the toughest bracket, surprising since its where #1 overall seed Ohio State resides.

Opening round games take place in Cleveland, Tampa and Charlotte with the regional finals in Newark.

Parity is the word in the 2011 tournament, which explains why many of the  6-11, 7-10 and 8-9 games are virtual pick ’ems in Vegas.

First round matchups:

#1 Ohio State vs Play In– Ohio State will “tatoo” their yet to be determined opponent.

#8 George Mason vs #9 Villanova– Arguably best 1st round matchup, GMU is pick here as Villanova continues slide.  The Wildcats lost ten of fifteen down the stretch.

#5 West Va vs Play In– West Virginia a lock for 2nd round.

#4 Kentucky vs #13 Princeton– Discipline vs Athleticism, UK pulls away  in 2nd half.  The buzzer beater over Harvard will seem a distant memory after the beat down by the ‘cats.

#6 Xavier vs #11 Marquette– Super sleeper Xavier should prevail vs Big East tested Marquette.  The Golden Eagles led the Big East in scoring, but Xavier is more physical and will own the boards.

#3 Syracuse vs #14 Indiana State– Orangemen with pass to 2nd round. Sycamores are very deep but also very small.

#7 Washington vs #10 Georgia- Washington has experience (Sweet 16 appearance a year ago) but UGA has size and athleticism, Dawgs upset Huskies.

#2 UNC vs # 15 Long Island– Cinderella story doesn’t last long vs Tar Heels.

2nd round projections:

#1 Ohio State vs #8 George Mason– Upset Alert! Do the Patriots have what it takes to make another magical run to the Final Four? Absolutely,  the inside outside duo of Cam Long and Ryan Pearson led GMU on a sixteen game regular season win streak and have what it takes to shock the #1 overall seed.

#4 Kentucky vs #5 West Virginia– Underachieving Lexington kids bounced by Huggins’ crew. The Mountaineers who beat Notre Dame, Georgetown and Purdue during the regular season add another giant to their resume.

#3 Syracuse vs #6 Xavier– Orange zone shuts down X inside game.  Syracuse won 18 straight to start the season and get it done with defense. Orange opponents were held under 60 points eighteen times this season.

#2 UNC vs #10 Georgia– Tar Heels too much to handle for inconsistent UGA. Freshman Harrison Barnes and Kendall Marshall have keyed the Heels resurgence from early season struggles.

Regional Semi-Finals:

#5 West Virginia vs #8 George Mason– This one is actually a toss up in my mind with slight edge to the Mountaineers.  WVU is deadly from deep perimeter and tested from last season’s run to the Final Four.

#2 UNC vs #3 Syracuse– Two of my favorites going into the tourney, going to go with emerging freshman 5-star center Fab Melo and the ‘cuse.  Orange have been on a mission since last season’s regional semi loss to Cinderela Butler.

East Regional Final:

#3 Syracuse vs #5 West Virginia– On to the Final Four for Jim Boeheim, love that zone defense!  ‘Cuse depth too much for Mountaineers who are not as deep as last year’s Final Four team.

Tomorrow, we will take a look at the Southeast regional.