Last minute NFL free agency rush!

With the NFL bargaining sessions extending for another week, one thing we know for sure is that full blown free agency is still at least a week away. Not unlike their brothers in the NBA, NFL clubs rushed to complete last minute transactions in advance of last night’s deadline. Yes, the deadline to find common ground on the Collective Bargaining Agreement was extended 24 hours, and subsequently for seven more days but only for labor discussions. “The Tolling Agreement” prevents all 32 clubs from conducting or executing player transactions.

Some clubs chose to sit tight, waiting to see what end result an eventual new CBA may bring, while others rushed to complete some last minute housekeeping. The Redskins are never shy to miss an opportunity, and the burgundy and gold added safety O.J.Atowge who had been cut loose by the St.Louis Rams. Other moves were mostly clubs retaining their own players;  Pierre Thomas (Saints), A.J. Hawk (Packers), Owen Daniels (Texans) and Leon Washington (Seahawks). The premiere free agent signing was safety Bob Sanders joining the San Diego Chargers. Sanders was an elite player for the Indianapolis Colts, but injuries limited him to just nine games over the past three seasons.

Just for fun, here’s a sneak peek at some of the free agent talent awaiting a new home. The top quarterbacks are Seattle’s Matt Hasselbeck and San Francisco’s Alex Smith. Peyton Manning could be added to that list but he obviously isn’t going anywhere.  Carolina’s DeAngelo Williams, Cincinnati’s Cedric Benson and Miami’s Ronnie Brown are all capable of carrying the load on a new team. Other skill position potential free agents include Minnesota’s Sidney Rice and former Giant Plaxico Burress who will be released from jail in June. Former teammate Brandon Jacobs has already given his approval of a potential return to the G Men. We will break down all the key free agents and where they may be headed once we get through all this contract business.

For now, we can all enjoy the weekend, no stakeouts of Washington hotels, not at least until Monday.

Ivan Nova Poised to Win Major Role

After two scoreless outings thus far this spring, the Dominican native has already put himself in good position to win a spot at the back of the Yankees unsettled rotation.

Analysis: Much has been made this offseason about the Yankees 4 and 5 spots in their starting rotation, with a host of characters in camp trying to secure one of these coveted jobs. Among these staff hopefuls are veterans Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia, along with the 24-year-old Nova. Originally signed as an amateur free agent in 2004 but stolen away from New York in December 2008’s Rule 5 draft, the 6’4″ right-hander was returned to the Yankees after a horrible spring training just a few months later. This looks like a blessing for the Bombers, as Nova appears to be coming into his own after making seven big league starts last season. He’s created a significant amount of buzz over the past seven days among Yankees staff and scouts alike, retiring all six Phillies he faced on Sunday and hurling three shutout frames yesterday against the Rays. With a little over three weeks of Grapefruit League action remaining, Nova is currently a favorite for the starting rotation.

Projection: Barring a complete meltdown, a trade or signing (the chances of this are very slim according to GM Brian Cashman), or a godlike resurgence from the portly Colon, Nova will head north at the end of this month as one of the Yankees starters. Perhaps the biggest knock on the youngster last year was his inability to finish six innings each turn. This was never an issue for Nova as he worked his way up from the GCL to AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, and he’ll be able to overcome this obstacle at the Major League level. As his confidence grows, so will his penchant for challenging hitters as opposed to nibbling around the plate and inflating his pitch count early in the game. These types of growing pains have surfaced in even the best arms, but are always magnified tenfold when pitching in the Bronx. I do not see endurance being a problem this year, and that spells good Fantasy numbers for Nova. Backed by a solid defense, a lockdown bullpen, and one of the best offenses in the league, look for Ivan to provide 12-14 wins over 28-30 starts. If he can improve the bite on his curveball to go along with his impressive sinking fastball, then count on him for a solid number of strikeouts as well.

Pushing Aramis Ramirez

Issue: Aramis Ramirez the Cubs’ 33 year old cleanup hitter has hung up some gaudy seasonal numbers over his 13 year career, but the last 2 were disappointments due to a shoulder separation on 2009 and a bruised thumb in 2010. If his gloss is tarnished, how far should we push the bidding in our 2011 Auction?

Analysis: He played in only 82 games in 2009 and 124 games last season, playing through the injury. The change from season to season looks like this: .317/.389/.506 in 2009 vs. .241/.294/.452 in 2010. His post All Star Game stats improved- 15 HR, 51 RBI, .321 OBP, .276 BA. Those 2nd half numbers may well push the bidding up. Beware because of 2 reasons. First, obviously older now than his best seasons, Aramis has injured 16 different body parts in his career, including thigh (6 times), thumb (4), shoulder (4), groin (4), wrist (3), knee (3), and lower back (3). Second, his supporting cast will diminish his counting category stats. Don’t count on 100 R and 100+ RBI. Marlon Byrd will be hitting in front of Aramis. Byrd kills LHP, but there are significantly more RHPs (.267/.328/.389). Newly acquired Carlos Pena hit .196 last season and will bat 5th for the Cubbies.

Projection: 475 PA, 25 HR, 70 R, 85 RBI, 1 SB, .289 BA.

Dexter Fowler Is All About Splits

Dexter Fowler will hit leadoff or 2nd for Colorado in 2011; as a prototypical speed guy in Colorado he probably will not be cheap enough at auction for his risk and reward to be in sync. Should we pursue him anyway?

Analysis: The book on Dexter Fowler is blazing speed, can hit LHP, but not any of the numerous RHPs, stole bases like crazy in the minors, but got caught way too often in The Show. A look at his splits shows his problems are only 2: (a) hitting/stealing versus RHP and (b) hitting outside of Mile High Stadium. His full season stats show he improved against RHP, hitting .260 from both sides of the plate. More good news is he hit .280 against all pitchers in the 2nd half following .233 in the 1st half. Even more encouraging was his 2nd half .304/.341/.494 against RHP. In 2010 he was an 80% base stealer (excellent) against LHP and had a 45% success rate vs. RHP. Typically it’s easier to steal against RHP, as a LHP is looking directly at first base when pitching from the stretch and thus shortens the base runner’s lead and often delays his first step. We assume this is correctable by Dexter with good coaching. After all he did steal 43 bases in 99 games in a single minor league season (Class A ball). So far so good for the future, yet when we look at his home/road splits from 2010 we catch our breath: .313/.401/.531 home v. .201/.297/.298 road. While he is improving and has the tools for a high ceiling, Dexter has a long way to go to be just an average MLB hitter in those 81 travel games in 2011. We think he will be better in 2011, but he won’t be a true breakout hitter. He will make an even bigger jump in value after another season of MLB experience. Don’t pay for 2012 in 2011.

Projection: 550 PA, 7 HR, 70 R, 40 RBI, 22 SB, .382 BA, .360 OBP

Kevin Love is Having a Breakout Fantasy Season

Kevin Love has been absolutely fantastic this season, defying any and all expectations.

Analysis: The Minnesota Timberwolves are 15-47, an absolutely horrible number, but who cares because we’re playing fantasy sports, where wins don’t matter and good numbers on a bad team are actually a good thing. Kevin Love is having a historically great season and it seems to be a sign of things to come. He could be the first players since Moses Malone to average over 15 boards and 20 points a game. He has a nose for the boards and this benefits a lot more than his rebounding numbers. Despite playing on a Minnesota team with lousy point guards Love is still averaging over 20 points a game this season. This is in great part due to his rebounding ability. If Johnny Flynn can’t find Love down low, Love can still grab the offensive board and score some points with a put back. Imagine if he ever landed with an elite point guard, he would be fantasy gold at that point. If Love and Nash ever join forces that would be one potent combination. Love does a few things really well: he scores, he boards, and shoots the three ball efficiently and this has made him a hot topic among other players. Even Lebron James discussed how sad it was to see such a great player in Kevin Love, wasting away on a bad team. He stated this with the obvious implication that he would love Love to take his talents to South Beach.

Projection: If you need what Kevin Love is offering (boards, points, and made 3s) then don’t hesitate to make a trade for him, because he’s not slowing down anytime soon. Just be wary that despite being a power forward Love only shoots 47% from the field, and averages less than half a block a game. His other stats more than make up for the lack of blocking, but it is something to be mindful of before making a move for Love.