Chase Utley’s 2011 Outlook

Issue: Chase Utley turns 32 this season and continues to have health issues. What can we expect in 2011 using the 3 players with the most similar careers in MLB history through their age 31 seasons, namely Jeff Kent, Joe Gordon, and Jim Edmonds.

Facts: Kent played another 9 seasons, Gordon only 4, and Edmonds 8. Those 3 hung up these numbers from their age 32 season till retirement.

Player G AB R HR RBI BA SB
Kent 1266 4756 754 216 850 .300 45
Gordon 566 2021 318 100 358 .262 21
Edmonds 1000 3189 563 200 573 .274 26

 

Analysis: Health wise we are not as pessimistic as former NYY star Joe Gordon’s shortened career. Kent became superman later in his career, with his 2 best career seasons ahead of him. Kent is the exception here in that regard and not just with these hitters. That leaves us with Edmonds.

Jim Edmonds (age 32) 2002 Actual       476 AB  96R  28HR   83RBI   4SB  .311BA

Chase Utley (age 32) 2011 Projection    476 AB  96R  28HR  100RBI  4SB  .292BA

We feel Chase will have more RBI in the Philly lineup with less batting average.

{6-4-3 Assists to Bill James and Baseball-Reference for their player similarity scores.}

Can Devin Harris Put Up All-Star Numbers On A Good Team?

Devin Harris had a great 2008-2009 campaign with the Nets which earned him a trip to the all-star game, but he hasn’t played at that level since.

Analysis: Devin has a chance to play for a winning team for the first time since he was shipped out of Dallas in the 2007-2008 season. I think he’ll make the most out of the opportunity and enjoy actually having a decent shot at winning on any given night. Devin now has some great teammates in Utah who will make it easier to pick up more assists. Harris’ first two games with Utah were nothing to write home about, but he produced reasonable enough stat lines. Since Devin left the structured environment of Dallas’s system his field goal percentage has gone down significantly. In his last year with Dallas he shot 48%, but in his next three years with New Jersey he never shot above 44%. With the Nets I believe, and the statistics prove my point, that Devin attempted to do too much. While still effective, he forced his shots more because his team relied heavily on him. Now that Devin is back on a good team with a well structured system and established roles he should become far more efficient. Devin Harris is only 28 and his decline shouldn’t start for another few seasons.

Projection: Devin will enjoy being competitive again, and will appreciate it more this time ’round after being stuck in New Jersey for 3 seasons. His field goal percentage should return closer to the 50% mark, and I believe he’s poised to make a gain in assists as well. Even before the switch Devin was averaging a career high 7.6 assists, and playing in Utah should only elevate this statistic more. It is a small sample size, but in two games with the Jazz, Devin is averaging a solid 8.5 assists.

Erik Bedard Makes First Major League Appearance In 18 Months

It only took the Mariners southpaw nine pitches to retire the Padres in order yesterday, after spending all of the 2010 season on the DL.

Analysis: Arriving in Seattle in February of 2008 as part of the Adam Jones deal, Bedard was expected to provide a stabilizing force toward the front of the M’s rotation. Coming off a 2007 campaign in which he averaged 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings and finished fifth in Cy Young voting, hopes were high for the Canadian with the wicked curveball. While on the mound Erik did deliver as promised, putting up impressive numbers in both 2008 and 2009. However, the key phrase here is “while on the mound”, as Bedard was only able to make 15 starts in each season due to shoulder issues, the most serious being a torn labrum. Now Bedard is back, inking a non-guaranteed contract in December with the same team who traded a package of prospects for him over three years ago. Folks in Seattle are hoping that their investment finally pays off in 2011 and that the 31-year-old lefty can stay healthy for 28+ starts.

Projection: Most Fantasy owners are aware of Bedard coming into their drafts, but these same owners will be understandably gun shy when it comes to this type of risk. My stance on Bedard is a bit different as the potential upside, especially when it comes to strikeouts, is tremendous. Yesterday was only one inning in late February, but it’s more than we’ve been able to see from the former Orioles ace in what feels like an eternity. Nothing is guaranteed for Bedard right now, including a spot on the Mariners Opening Day roster. If I was forced to draft my team today, however, I would take a flyer on him in the later rounds. This is a veteran who has worked his way back from what is considered to be one of the most devastating injuries for a pitcher, and he will be pushed along carefully over the next four weeks. This is also a guy who could still have an exciting career ahead of him. My crystal ball may still have some snow covering it, but a closer look shows Bedard fitting in nicely behind King Felix and winning 12-14 games in 2011.

Brad Boyes To Buffalo Boosts Value

Sunday Brad Boyes was traded to the Buffalo Sabres from St. Louis in exchange for a second round pick. While his points production should remain steady his power play minutes are sure to increase on a mediocre Buffalo power play unit.

Analysis: Brad Boyes has 41 points in 62 games and is available in sixty percent of fantasy hockey leagues. Boyes moves to a team that has a real need for a top six forward. Right now he’s averaging just 17 minutes of ice time a game and with this trade expect 19 minutes of ice time with considerable power play minutes. Boyes is pretty consistent in every category- he takes over two shots a game, he scores more than enough points for a forward of his caliber, his plus/minus is solid but his lack of ice time in St. Louis really did hurt his fantasy production.

Projection: Boyes should still be putting up points in the .6-.8 points per game range but his power play points and ice time are the real winners here in the trade to Buffalo. This trade takes Boyes from a solid deeper league forward to a six category producing fantasy asset.

Rating the NFL prospects

As college football elite show their stuff in Indianapolis at the NFL combine, club execs are faced with a tough task- reliable player evaluation.

As technology explodes, so does the amount of information gathered in advance of the April NFL draft.  ESPN and the NFL Network are the best in the business of grading and projecting college players transition from the college to the pro game.  Mel Kiper Jr carved a niche for himself  at ESPN in the 80’s when the draft was a mere blip on the radar.  Kiper’s persona is such,  he insists to have received interest from pro teams to run their player personnel departments, offers he claims to have rejected. The NFL Network’s superstar is former player Mike Mayock. Mayock gained notoriety by absolutely “owning”  the 2010 NFL draft coverage alongside analyst Jon Gruden. “Chucky” benefited from the magical Mayock performance to the extent of landing the Monday Night Football ‘gig”.

The information overload peaked with the NFL Network began carrying the combine “tryouts” Live. The Internet was the first big plaeteau in the NFL Combine’s rise to prominence on the annual calendar. Mock drafts are everywhere, sites are devoted entirely to the process leading up to the NFL draft, the Combine serving as the main course. What is the most important factor when choosing a young man and paying him, in some cases, tens of millions of dollars?

On field performance:  How an athlete performed during his career used to be the only real barometer when slotting talent for the draft. Is he a “good football player”? seems reasonable to me.  Further to the evaluation, what level of the competition did he perform against?

Measurables– This has had the biggest impact, especially since the meteoric rise of the NFL combine. How much can he lift? How fast can he run? How high can he  jump?How does he look in his underwear? Without a doubt, how a player performs at the combine is having a huge impact on where they land on draft day(s). Bruce Campbell is a perfect example. A year ago, Campbell performed like Adonis at the combine, blowing away the competition. Following a pedestrian  career at the University of Maryland, most figured he would be a free agent, bypassed in the draft. But wait!  following the herculean workouts at the combine,  “experts” and scouts (notice not one in the same)  had him possibly a 1st rounder! Cooler heads prevailed, he ended up right smack in the middle of the  draft, taken by the Oakland Raiders in the 4th round.

Off the field: Does the athlete have character issues? Again, is character good or bad? In NFL terms, a “character guy” is a guy with issues, a “high character guy” is a leader. Make sure you know your character or at least that of others. Interviews with coaches and in some case owners and upper management seem fair enough. But how about the Wonderlic test? Vince Young is well known for virtually failing it several years ago, while Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy (who can’t throw) nearly aced it this week. Who cares what kind of animal they would be anyway? (one of the questions sometimes asked)

Future is Now and Need: Do we have time to wait for kids to develop or are they took risky to take altogether?  George Allen, the legendary Redskins Head Coach of the 70’s believed “the future is now”.  Dan Snyder who at times runs the Skins like a fantasy team seems to share the future is now belief. The Redskins were also involved in the famous Ricky Williams trade where New Orleans Head Coach Mike Ditka traded his ENTIRE draft to Washington for  the opportunity to take the dread locked running back from Texas. What about need? Do we take a guy at a position where our  situation is a disaster? or do we simply take the best player available, every year- every pick.  In my opinion, New England displays the PERFECT patience in running a franchise. You need only look at the 2011 NFL draft, where you find the Patriots with an extra pick in each of the first four rounds.  Patience, trading back, and trading picks for next year, Bill Belichick knows how to coach and just as importantly how to stockpile talent. The Pats have gone  from old to  young in a couple of seasons without missing a beat, on the field.

Finally, more Mike Mayock man love…. If you want to exponentially increase your knowledge of the X’s and O’s of football, watch what is left of the combine this week. Mayock is a wealth of knowledge and shares it in a very conversational fashion.