$46 Albert Pujols, $10 Neil Walker, 3 Legged Stool

Issue: One Freeze Roster slot remains. You must choose between $46 Pujols and $10 Neil Walker, but at the end of Auction Day you want to own both. Which one do you keep, then buy back the other?

Facts: Your league is in Stage 3 where everyone is experienced and they all know everything, so projected value is the same as the Auction market price. You suspect a 20% inflation rate on Auction Day from the Keeper rosters. In 24 seasons only 3 times has a player gone for the league high of $50: Albert twice and Hanley Ramirez once. Albert will earn $48 and Neil $15 in 2011. In this highly competitive league an extra $4 under the salary cap could make the difference in acquiring Alexi Casilla over Jack Wilson in the End Game.

Analysis:

(A) Keep Albert and buy back Walker.

$46 Albert’s Freeze Salary

$18 Neil’s price at Auction ($15 X 120%)

$64 Total Investment Cost

$63 Value ($48 + $15)

$1 Loss On Investment

(B) Keep Walker and buy back Pujols on Auction Day.

$10 Walker’s Freeze Salary

$50 Albert’s cost on Auction Day (League’s Psychological Auction Price Ceiling)

$60 Total Investment Cost

$63 Value

$3 Profit On Investment

3 Legged “Price/Cost” Stool: Freeze Day is in 2 weeks and the wind is blowing out at the Grapefruit League’s McKechnie Field in Bradenton. Neil Walker is getting more loft than usual and is looking like the 2011 version of Jayson Heyward, breaking auto windows in the distant parking lot. The news or noise makes Walker’s pre-inflation market price tick up to $18, so with 20% inflation he’ll cost $22 on Auction Day, wipe out your profit, and you’ll have to settle for a Jack Wilson Wanna-Be in the End Game. Now you should keep Walker. The 3 Prices or Costs are what he’ll earn, what he’ll cost (market), what he’ll cost with inflation.

Projections:

Name AVG   R   RBI   HR   SB   AB
Pujols 0.318   110   114   39   10   571
Walker 0.278   73   83   16   7   560
                       
Casilla 0.275   70   60   10   32   507
Wilson 0.252   21   29   2   3   296

Ryan Torain to be Washington Redskins’ Starter in 2011?

Washington Redskins star running back Clinton Portis is expected to be released, a move that could have the organization looking to Ryan Torain as the new full-time starter at the position, according to Rotoworld.com.

Analysis: Torain put up over 700 yards and an enticing 4.5 yards per carry average in just 10 games, which offers the potential to translate into future success. Torain isn’t the best receiver or play-maker, but he knows Mike Shanahan’s scheme and can pound the rock with the best of them.

Projection: He has the body and talent to do some damage in the NFL, although damage is the operative word. Durability concerns could force the ‘Skins to add another back to help Torain. If he is the full-time starter, however, he’d vie for 1,000 yards and around 10 scores.

Dirk Nowitzki is Still Putting Up Great Numbers

Dirk appears to be more machine than man as he continues to put up ridiculous fantasy numbers season after season, despite his advancing age.

Analysis: Once again Dirk is easily a top 10 fantasy pick in all leagues. He’s getting older but hasn’t lost any of his effectiveness. I believe if Dirk wanted to he could hit his fade-away jumper until he was in his 50s, nobody can defend it. While Dirk missed a stretch of this season and came back a little slow, he seems to be back to full speed once again. Dirk’s points are down a little but he has made improvements in other facets of his game that make up for the little scoring drop. He is shooting career highs in both field goal percentage and three point percentage, at 52% and 43% respectively. With Dallas tied for the second best record in the league, and Dirk having arguably his best teammates ever, he is more motivated than ever. Dallas is set to make a legitimate championship run this season and Dirk will take the lead just as he normally does.

Projection: Dirk continues to get it done in a variety of ways and you should capitalize on his stats if you’re lucky enough to get him. Tonight Dirk destroyed the Raptors shooting 11-20, good for 31 points, and grabbed 13 boards. Pretty good for a 32 year old European.

Shooting Bricks With Jose Calderon

We all know Jose Calderon can dish out plenty of assists, but is the rest of his game stable enough to be a potent fantasy option.

Analysis: Jose is actually having a career year in terms of assists, but can’t seem to find his shooting stroke. In his last 10 games Jose is shooting a horrid 29% from the field. However in the same 10 game stretch he is averaging almost 12 assists a game. Beautiful assist numbers contrasted by hideous shooting. The shooting is a strange occurrence because Jose has consistently shot close to 50% every season in the NBA, minus his rookie season. I expect Jose will eventually break out of his slump, but it is still cause for concern. Jose is grabbing some steals this season too, averaging a career high in that category. Jose has never been a high volume shooter so his shooting stats won’t hurt your team too much. After being completely overrated during last year’s fantasy season, Jose’s stock has come back down to earth.

Projection: If you need assists then pick up Jose because he will provide you them in bunches. On a positive note Jose had his first great shooting night in a while, tonight against Dallas, with 15 points on 7-10 shooting. One good game doesn’t necessarily mean he’s broken out of his slump, but it is a step in the right direction. Jose is a good fantasy point guard option this season even with terrible shooting percentages. When his shooting comes back, which it will, Jose will be a great pickup.

Matt Holliday, Josh Hamilton, Miguel Cabrera+: Consistent Mashers

Issue: For the careful fantasy player who wants bankable hitting production in HR, RBI, and R without damaging his team BA, where should he look?

Facts: Auction/Draft Prep Tools: Categories Leader Board Last 3 Seasons— Thirty-nine hitters with

60+HR

200+RBI

200+ R

.270+ BA.

Ranked below by BA.

Player PA HR RBI R BA
Albert Pujols 2041 126 369 339 .331
Matt Holliday 1968 77 300 296 .315
Josh Hamilton 1640 74 284 236 .315
Hanley Ramirez 1964 78 249 318 .314
Miguel Cabrera 2017 109 356 292 .314
Joey Votto 1781 86 281 257 .314
Manny Ramirez 1405 65 226 202 .311
Kevin Youkilis 1644 75 271 267 .308
Robinson Cano 2004 68 266 276 .304
Ryan Braun 2055 94 323 306 .303
Justin Morneau 1650 71 285 235 .300
Vladimir Guerrero 1650 71 256 227 .300
David Wright 2023 72 299 290 .297
Ryan Zimmerman 1762 72 242 246 .294
Troy Tulowitzki 1578 67 233 238 .294
Andre Ethier 1866 74 265 253 .289
Derrek Lee 1939 74 281 264 .286
Alex Rodriguez 1724 95 328 256 .286
Adrian Beltre 1730 61 223 212 .286
Mark Teixeira 2104 105 351 318 .285
Adrian Gonzalez 2073 107 319 280 .285
Torii Hunter 1760 66 258 235 .285
Chase Utley 1905 80 262 300 .284
Evan Longoria 1840 82 302 263 .283
Raul Ibanez 1908 73 286 253 .281
Lance Berkman 1708 68 244 235 .281
Aubrey Huff 1926 73 279 255 .280
Prince Fielder 2127 112 326 283 .279
Jayson Werth 1810 87 251 277 .279
Matt Kemp 1992 72 266 272 0.279
Paul Konerko 1766 89 261 223 0.279
Hunter Pence 1947 75 246 247 0.278
Aramis Ramirez 1494 67 259 204 0.278
Vernon Wells 1796 66 232 226 0.275
Jason Kubel 1677 69 273 215 0.274
Jason Bay 1709 73 267 262 0.273
Ryan Ludwick 1707 76 279 230 0.273
Corey Hart 1743 63 241 231 0.271
J.D. Drew 1541 65 200 232 0.270

 

Analysis: Let’s put our arms around these 39 by slotting them into recognizable types:

Usually Out Performs His Salary: Drew (not sexy).

Post-Injury Bounce Back: Bay, Utley, Morneau.

May Have A Production Bump In Him: Hart, Kubel, Wells, Manny.

Possible Slight Bargain: Ludwick, Fielder, Huff, Berkman, Teixeira, Lee, Vlad, Cabrerra, Holliday.

Probably Over-Priced: Aramis, Konerko, Kemp, Werth, Ibanez, Adrian G., Beltre, A-Rod, Wright, Braun, Cano, Votto, Hanley, Hamilton.

Get What You Pay For: Pence, Longoria, Hunter, Ethier, Tulo, Zimmerman, Youkilis, Pujols.

Projections:

Name AVG R RBI HR SB AB
Albert Pujols 0.318 110 114 39 10 571
Ryan Braun 0.293 105 108 35 16 624
Hanley Ramirez 0.302 105 84 24 30 591
Miguel Cabrera 0.304 99 119 34 4 595
Joey Votto 0.297 97 109 32 11 581
Adrian Gonzalez 0.306 103 105 33 1 583
Matt Holliday 0.304 95 99 25 13 585
Troy Tulowitzki 0.291 96 103 26 12 561
Alex Rodriguez 0.280 89 118 32 11 517
David Wright 0.289 96 95 24 20 597
Robinson Cano 0.306 92 94 25 4 613
Josh Hamilton 0.306 86 102 26 9 541
Mark Teixeira 0.276 101 114 33 2 582
Jayson Werth 0.278 99 90 27 17 568
Evan Longoria 0.280 96 100 28 11 601
Kevin Youkilis 0.298 97 98 24 6 522
Matt Kemp 0.275 91 85 24 26 612
Chase Utley 0.278 98 88 24 14 542
Prince Fielder 0.274 89 98 34 3 551
Adrian Beltre 0.293 82 89 25 8 582
Brandon Phillips 0.268 95 84 21 20 635
Ryan Zimmerman 0.286 92 90 26 3 593
Hunter Pence 0.272 88 86 25 15 633
Justin Morneau 0.289 85 96 25 1 527
Andre Ethier 0.283 87 89 25 4 583
Torii Hunter 0.274 84 90 21 15 563
Vladimir Guerrero 0.281 78 91 26 4 512
Corey Hart 0.271 81 82 22 13 540
Aramis Ramirez 0.270 75 100 24 2 510
Derrek Lee 0.281 78 85 23 3 513
Aubrey Huff 0.267 85 89 20 4 576
Vernon Wells 0.265 81 81 20 9 595
Jason Bay 0.248 83 85 24 10 522
Raul Ibanez 0.278 70 79 20 3 472
Jason Kubel 0.267 68 82 21 2 494
Ryan Ludwick 0.253 73 85 23 3 532
J.D. Drew 0.265 77 70 20 4 456
Lance Berkman 0.262 71 74 18 7 464
Manny Ramirez 0.276 66 71 19 2 416