ADP Watch- QBs

ESPN has Ryan Tannehill ranked as the 22nd best fantasy quarterback this season. Tannehill finished 2013 as the 16th best fantasy quarterback with the worst offensive line in the league. Let me repeat that- Ryan Tannehill was the 16th best QB last year with the worst offensive line in the league.

Analysis: Tannehill has a career 79.1 passer rating through two seasons as a pro. Andrew Luck has a career 81.5 passer rating and has taken 20 less sacks during his two year career. I’m not saying Tannehill is better than Luck but they are closer than a lot of the hype mongers would have you believe.

Johnny Manziel, Eli Manning and Joe Flacco are being taken before Tannehill as a QB2. Tannehill is the 22nd quarterback being taken off the board in the 138-160 pick range. This does not make any sense. Yes, Tannehill does play in a difficult division from a defensive point of view but he is poised to break out this season. The Miami O-line should be mediocre this year which means less sacks, hurries, interceptions, fumbles and of course more accuracy from the pocket. Tannehill ranked 10th last year in rushing yards among quarterbacks- expect even more from Ryan this year as the read-option will find its way into the Miami offensive scheme courtesy of Bill Lazor.

ESPN ranks Tannehill at 22… he finished last season at 16 and improvements have been made to the offensive line(Branden Albert) and he will run more. Thanks ESPN, spot on as always.

ADP Watch- RBs

It is finally August which means it is time to take a look at the average draft positions of key fantasy players.

Analysis: Andre Ellington is the most interesting back this season. Jonathan Cooper will finally make his pro debut. The left guard was the seventh overall pick from the 2013 NFL draft and he will help Ellington out immediately. It also helps that Arizona added Ted Ginn as their third wide out. Even though he never puts up great numbers he always stretches the field which is something the Arizona ground game is in desperate need of.

Ellington ran for 652 yards last year on 5.5 yards per carry. Among backs with at least 100 carries Ellington ranked 1st in yard per carry last year. Ellington also racked up 39 receptions last season. His ADP is between 32-49. He is the 15th to 20th running back being taken off the board. I don’t think taking thirty-one year old Frank Gore ahead of him makes sense. Reggie Bush is going right around where Ellington is in fantasy drafts. Keep in mind that Bush has 13 fumbles over the last three seasons including 5 last year(4 lost). Turnovers have been huge for Detroit… does Bush have a short leash this season? Reggie Bush simply does not possess the upside of Ellington, but…. is the risk worth the reward?

Second Half Numbers in Philly

Now that we’ve passed the All-Star break, we are moving into the unofficial second half of the season. Some players are renowned for their second-half surges, yet some are infamous for falling apart in the dog days. I’ve taken the liberty of breaking the Phillies’ starters into three categories…

SELL HIGH: Players who have historically proven a disappointing second half

  1. Ben Revere sees his average drop 33 points after the first half as well as a decrease in just about every other fantasy stat.
  2. Chase Utley experiences a drop in offensive production in the second half, most drastically in slugging percentage.

ON THE FENCE: Players who haven’t proved enough to predict an increase or decrease in performance

  1. Cody Asche in his limited major league experience has slightly lower numbers in the second half.
  2. Domonic Brown in a small sample size sees an uncommonly big drop in power in the second half, but fairly even numbers elsewhere.
  3. Marlon Byrd has better second half numbers, but not by a substantial amount.

BUY LOW: Players who have historically proven a significant increase in production in the second half

  1. Carlos Ruiz sees an increase in each sector of the triple-slash line: batting average, on-base percentage, and especially slugging percentage.
  2. Ryan Howard, despite his numbers being down this season, should see a large increase in offensive production, although most likely not enough to see typical end-of-year Ryan Howard numbers.
  3. Jimmy Rollins experiences a surge in the second half of seasons particularly in power.

Santana Wins Third In Row

Ervin Santana pitched another gem Monday afternoon against the Padres. He pitched 8.0 shutout innings and allowed just 5 hits while striking out 11 batters. He has won three games in a row and five of his last six starts.

Analysis: We all know that Ervin Santana is not the most consistent pitcher out there, however, he seems to have found some semblance of consistency recently. Last year he recorded a 3.24 ERA, 3.69 xFIP and a 1.14 WHIP. This year has been more of the same through 131.1 innings on 20 starts- 3.63 ERA, 3.24 xFIP and a 1.23 WHIP.

Santana ranks 49th in ERA, 41st in WHIP, 28th in strikeouts and 23rd in wins. He has pitched very well over the last year and one half. Even at thirty-one years of age his velocity is the same it was seven years ago. Santana is relying more on his changeup and pounding the bottom of the strike zone this year with the Braves and his ground ball rate of 47% this season is 7% above his career average.

Ervin Santana is available in 7-15% of fantasy leagues. His next scheduled start is Saturday against the Padres again.

Last Call On Vogt

Stephen Vogt has been a revelation for Oakland over the last few months. He is a twenty-nine year old with just over 100 big league games under his belt but don’t let that fool you.

Analysis: Stephen Vogt is hitting .357 this season with a .387 OBP. He has 4 home runs and 21 runs batted in through 40 games. That is a solid line, however, Vogt has a lot more going for him. He has catcher, first base and outfield position eligibility. Over the last month of the season Vogt ranks as the 4th best catcher, 18th best first baseman and the 54th best outfielder.

He doesn’t strikeout much(10.6%) but his walk rate could use some work(4.5%). Vogt does have a solid history in the minors. He has hit over .320 with an OBP over .400 the last two years in Triple-A. He obviously works best at catcher but he gives any squad plenty of flexibility. Expect his batting average to come back to reality but he is capable of hitting .280 going forward.

Stephen Vogt is available in 40% of fantasy leagues.