ADP Watch- QBs

ESPN has Ryan Tannehill ranked as the 22nd best fantasy quarterback this season. Tannehill finished 2013 as the 16th best fantasy quarterback with the worst offensive line in the league. Let me repeat that- Ryan Tannehill was the 16th best QB last year with the worst offensive line in the league.

Analysis: Tannehill has a career 79.1 passer rating through two seasons as a pro. Andrew Luck has a career 81.5 passer rating and has taken 20 less sacks during his two year career. I’m not saying Tannehill is better than Luck but they are closer than a lot of the hype mongers would have you believe.

Johnny Manziel, Eli Manning and Joe Flacco are being taken before Tannehill as a QB2. Tannehill is the 22nd quarterback being taken off the board in the 138-160 pick range. This does not make any sense. Yes, Tannehill does play in a difficult division from a defensive point of view but he is poised to break out this season. The Miami O-line should be mediocre this year which means less sacks, hurries, interceptions, fumbles and of course more accuracy from the pocket. Tannehill ranked 10th last year in rushing yards among quarterbacks- expect even more from Ryan this year as the read-option will find its way into the Miami offensive scheme courtesy of Bill Lazor.

ESPN ranks Tannehill at 22… he finished last season at 16 and improvements have been made to the offensive line(Branden Albert) and he will run more. Thanks ESPN, spot on as always.

Russell Wilson Is Streaking

Russell Wilson threw for 293 yards and 2 touchdowns in Chicago Sunday afternoon.

Analysis: Russell Wilson now has 9 touchdowns and 0 interceptions over his last four games. As much as everyone likes to rave about Andrew Luck he has thrown 8 interceptions over his last four games. Russell Wilson is simply playing smart, consistent football. Sunday’s game in Chicago is an impressive one and next up on the schedule is the lowly Arizona Cardinals. The following week is the Buffalo Bills which may be a good game to start the rookie over some big names like Flacco(vs. Den), Cutler(vs. GB), Luck(vs. Hou).

At the moment Wilson is available in eighty percent of fantasy leagues but how can you make a case against him at this point? His 9 touchdown/0 interception streak came against the Vikings, Jets, Dolphins and Bears… so there were not any defensive pushovers in that span. Seattle is one of the most run heavy teams in the NFL but Wilson has averaged 32 passing attempts over his last two games. The Seahawks are in the thick of the NFC playoff race and will certainly rely on his arm going forward and that is a good thing for his fantasy football value.

T. Y. Hilton Is Emerging

T. Y. Hilton caught six balls for 100 receiving yards and two touchdowns Sunday against the New England Patriots. It is the rookie’s third 100 yard game of the 2012 NFL season.

Analysis: T. Y. Hilton now has two 100 plus yard receiving games in his last three games as he emerges as one of Andrew Luck’s favorite targets in Indy. Hilton was targeted nine times Sunday and has twenty-one targets in his previous three games. He may not be a reliable must start type of receiver but his numbers cannot go unnoticed.

The Colts attempt forty passes per game so we know Hilton will get his fair share of targets. He’s available in over ninety percent of leagues but his stock is on the rise. With Donnie Avery’s concussion in week eleven it opens the door for Hilton to put up some solid numbers. Keep in mind that Indy does play Houston twice and Detroit so we can expect plenty of passing attempts the rest of the season.

Other widely available players that seem to be emerging include Davone Bess(more consistent) and Marcel Reece(PPR stud).

Josh Freeman Is Surging

Josh Freeman threw for 420 yards and three touchdowns Sunday against the New Orleans Saints.

Analysis: Josh Freeman has now thrown for six touchdown passes and 748 passing yards over his last two games. While his opponents have not been solid defensive clubs, he has done what is expected of him. Freeman is punishing lesser teams with his arm leading Tampa to 35 and 38 points in his last two contests.

Freeman is available in thirty percent of leagues and he is certainly worth a look. With guys like Alex Smith and Andrew Luck underperforming, Josh Freeman as a QB2 makes a lot of sense. With games against Oakland, Carolina and San Diego in the near future you have to love Freeman’s fantasy potential. Those three opponents coming up in the next four weeks rank nineteenth or worst in passing yards allowed per game.

With a passer rating of 91.2, zero fumbles lost and only nine sacks on the year, Josh Freeman is limiting the mistakes which you cannot say for a Sam Bradford or a Ryan Fitzpatrick. We are going into the middle of the 2012 NFL season and Josh Freeman is surging at the right time.

Draft Impact- Andrew Luck

Rookie quarterbacks who come into the league and have instant success almost always have a solid running game and defense to lean on. In 2011 the Colts finished 26th in total rushing yards and 25th in total defense.

Analysis: Maybe I’m the only one who isn’t on the Andrew Luck bandwagon but I just can’t see it. The Pac-12 is just an awful defensive conference. On top of that, Stanford had an awesome offensive line and a great running game(20th in nation). Take Luck’s three biggest games last year(Oregon, USC, OkSt), he threw four interceptions and only ran for twenty yards on eighteen carries.

Let’s face it, the Colts have tons of issues aside from Jim Irsay’s unparelleled narcissism. Jacob Tamme is now in Denver and there is a reason Peyton didn’t want Dallas Clark and neither do the Colts… he’s a shell of his former self. Donald Brown has yet to run for 700 yards in a season and Delone Carter certainly is not the answer. The defense will not be helping Luck out either, they allowed 26.9 points per game, fifth worst in the NFL. As a result Luck will be throwing tons of second half picks playing catch up. Keep in mind that AFC South rivals the Jags, Texans and Titans all finished in the top eleven in points allowed in 2011(under 21 PPG). Expect one “unlucky” fantasy year for the “next” John Elway.