Author: Dylan Stephenson

LeBron James is Terrible!

While my title might be the overstatement of the century, it emphasizes a very real issue: LeBron James is having a far worse fantasy season than his previous few.

Analysis: First of all, we all knew that a slight dip in points was going to result from the whole Taking My Talents… debacle, but nobody predicted James to not produce as well in other categories. Sports writers’ such as Bill Simmons thought he might even approach triple double status for the season. This has not been the case. LeBron is shooting a slightly worse FG%, a slightly worse FT%, and averaging 3 less points a game. With Dwayne Wade as his co-superstar and Chris Bosh as another star, I really thought that LeBron’s percentages would have gone up significantly, certainly not down. He should be getting easier looks resulting in higher percentages but this hasn’t been the case. More importantly are LeBron’s drop-off in assists, blocks, and steals. He is averaging 1.5 less assists, .4 blocks less, and a .1 decrease in steals. With LeBron finally having some decent help, I expected him to focus more on piling up his assist and block stats, but this has not happened.

Projection: For anybody else LeBron’s stats would look absolutely gorgeous, but coming after his MVP season they look pedestrian. Expect more of the same from LeBron as Miami struggles to find itself.

Ray Allen and His Beautiful Percentages

Ray Ray is aging like a fine bordeaux, he truly is getting better with age.

Analysis: This season Ray passed Reggie Miller as the NBA’s all time leader in three pointers made, but that is just the tip of the iceberg for him. Ray is putting up career percentages with his stellar shooting this season. For a shooting guard who is a career 45% Field Goal shooter his over 50% this season is a revelation. Even more spectacular has been his increased 3 point percentage at 47%, also a career high. In fact he is shooting 3s at a 4% better rate than his best season. What this means for fantasy stats is a bunch more made threes than last season, exactly a 1/2 3 more this season compared to last. These increased percentages alone make Ray a solid producer, but when you examine his other stats he is even more impressive. He’s averaging more boards, assists, points, and steals than last season. The increases in those categories aren’t huge but when you put in it perspective it is pretty significant. Not many expected a 35 year old shooting guard to actually improve upon his previous season, but that is exactly what happened this season. Ray Allen is one dangerous shooter, arguably the best in the game.

Projection: As the Boston Celtics secure their position at the top of the East expect to see a lot less of Ray. Coach Doc Rivers will save his key players for the playoffs, thus you should expect to see a noticeable drop off in Ray’s production due to declining minutes. What he’s done this season is still something to take note of. A historic year for Ray Allen.

Monta Ellis Does a Little More Than Just Score

Golden State guard Monta Ellis is a scoring machine, but he consistently contributes in enough other categories to make him a valuable option.

Analysis: Monta is putting up fantastic scoring numbers once again this season, averaging almost 25 points a game. His FG% isn’t as bad as you might think either. Currently at 45% which is not that terrible for such a high volume shooter. On top of his excellent scoring numbers Monta actually carries his own weight in a number of other categories. He hits a respectable 1.6 3s per game, averages over 5 assists per game, and picks up a few boards here and there. The real cherry on top is his steals, which are currently at 2.2 per game this season. His FG% and FT% could be a bit better but on the whole Monta is a fantasy beast. Four times this season Monta has broken the 40 point threshold, and I expect him to get there a few more times yet. Monta’s best month was December when he averaged 27 points a game. He won’t average that for another month, but you can expect his scoring to not slip much below 25 points a game.

Projection: Even if Monta is having an off shooting night he will still score. With his ability to get to the rim and finish, he doesn’t need to be on fire to put up the points. Monta scores and steals extremely well and he’s not going to lose that touch anytime soon. Ellis will continue to do what he’s doing, but don’t expect major improvements in any categories.

The Indestructable Iguodola

Andre Iguodola has actually dropped off in scoring this season, but he still has enough positive attributes to merit mention.

Analysis: One of the often overlooked factors in playing fantasy basketball is a player’s injury history. Sure people know to avoid Yao Ming or Tracy McGrady because of their extensive injury problems in the past, but fantasy gamers are less aware of the oft injured others. Or to approach this in a different manner the importance of having a so called “Iron man” on their fantasy team. Out of Iguodola’s 7 seasons in the NBA he has missed a grand total of 6 games. Tough to believe that over the entire course of his career thus far, he has only missed 6 complete games, pretty crazy. When you play 82 games during the regular season, not even counting playoffs missing only a few games is quite a feat. This is important for your fantasy team, because it means that Iguodola is always available to put up some stats. Whereas with a player like Andrew Bynum might have better statistical production when he does play, but over the course of the season Iguodola is the far superior option. So despite Iguodola’s dip in points production, dropping from 17 points per game last season to just over 14 a games this season, he still has some value.

Projection: Iguodola’s points are down which is unfortunate but he is still a valuable fantasy option and can explode on any give night, keeping fantasy players interested. Take last night for instance- Iguodola wnet off for 22 points, 10 boards, and 13 assists. Those are the kind of fantasy night he puts up every so often that keep his value relatively high.

David Lee and his Underwhelming Season

David Lee puts up a decent game every once in a while, but his season stats at this point are not what was expected of him.

Analysis: I really thought that the change of scenery to the high scoring Golden State Warriors would have brought pleasant stats to Lee, but that simply hasn’t been the case. He’s averaging 4 less points a game than he did last season with the Knicks. He is taking 2 fewer shots a contest, but more important is his FG%. His percentage has dropped from around 55% in the last 3 seasons to a career low of 49% this season. Steph Curry is an excellent playmaker and he should have had more of a positive effect on Lee, unfortunately that hasn’t been the case. Another unfortunate stat difference between this year and last is the drop in rebounding. Lee is averaging 9.5 boards a game this season, which is down from the 11.7 a game he average last season. Those owners who thought Lee was due for a surge this season have been kicking themselves waiting for him to get started, but it just doesn’t seem like this is his season. He did put up a nice fantasy night tonight with 26 points and 12 boards, but that kind of production hasn’t been very constant.

Projection: David Lee can’t seem to find his groove this year and has been a big time fantasy let-down. Lets remember that he is in the first year of a big contract and is pretty comfortable right now. Perhaps too comfortable. Look for Lee to come out better next year, but I don’t see him averaging much better stats for the rest of this season.