Author: TJ Streett

Keep An Eye On Dexter Fowler

Dexter Fowler was called up from Triple A to play center field for Carlos Goanzalez Friday night. Gonzalez is still not completely healthy with a nagging right wrist injury.

Analysis: Dexter Fowler has been on fire in Triple A recently, batting nearly at the .400 mark over the last two weeks. The tools have always been there for Fowler and it’s what makes him such an interesting fantasy player. Whether he goes back down to Triple A when CarGo gets healthy or finds himself as the Rockies fourth outfielder you have to keep an eye on Fowler. If the cards fall the right way he may have a starting job sooner than later. Fowler’s 27 stolen base rookie year was not even close to what he is capable of and it appears he has found his groove. He went 1-3 with two runs and a stolen base Friday night against the Brewers. He also recorded a walk and went without a strikeout. If Fowler can stop trying to mash the ball and cut down his strikeout rate, simply by putting the ball in play he becomes a serious weapon. Fowler does have some pop and gets tons of triples so he can be roster worthy if given consistent at bats.

Injury Update- Jose Reyes

CBSSports.com is reporting that Mets shortstop Jose Reyes may be returning to action on Monday July 18th.

Analysis: The hamstring injury is not as severe as initially thought and Reyes has been taking batting practice since the All-Star break. Reyes is having an MVP type year and is leading the National League in batting average by thirty points with a .354 average. Reyes also has thirty stolen bases on the year and a staggering fifteen triples, six more than anyone else in the bigs. Reyes is having a bit of a power outage, this year will be his lowest home run total since 2005 if you don’t count his thirty-six game year in 2009. Reyes has dropped his strikeout rate to just 6.8% this year while his career average sits at 10.7%. Reyes is also benefiting from a .375 BABIP, sixty-one points above his career average. He’s a great player and right there with Tulo and Hanley as the best fantasy shortstops around. Hanley may be having a bad year but he will absolutely out produce Asdrubal Cabrera in the second half of the season. Reyes does make a fine sell high player but he should not experience much of a drop off in his play.

Selling High- Jair Jurrjens

Jair Jurrjens may be in the conversation for the National League Cy Young but he is due to regress. His value will not get higher so it is time to sell high and I’ll tell you why.

Analysis: Jair Jurrjens may be sporting a sub two ERA but he is one of the luckiest pitchers in the bigs this year. Jurrjens’ ERA-FIP is a staggering -1.23, second “best” in the major leagues. What is also concerning is his absolutely unsustainable 84% LOB rate, once again second best in the major leagues. We can also look at Jurrjens’ BABIP against which sits at .256, fifteenth luckiest this year among all starting pitchers. Jurrjens actually has his lowest strikeout rate since his rookie year with the Tigers in 2007. All signs point to a pitcher waiting to blow up and lose tons of trade value. He’s a solid pitcher but he isn’t and will never be a SP1 in fantasy baseball.

Projection: Expect an ERA over three in Jurrjens’ remaining starts. His xFIP is actually 3.76 right now so it might get ugly, at least for him. Jurrjens is still just a three pitch pitcher and although his fastball has been great this year it still doesn’t average 90 MPH. If his command suffers just a bit due to fatigue down the stretch it won’t be pretty and don’t say I didn’t tell you so.

A-Rod Replacements

Alex Rodriguez is heading to the disabled list to have surgery on a meniscus tear in his right knee. Rodriguez is expected to be on the shelf for four to six weeks so it is crucial to find a serviceable replacement at third base.

Analysis: Minnesota third baseman Danny Valencia has been playing very well as of late and has some pop to offer. Valencia has ten bombs on the year with 46 RBI. Valencia also has four multi hit games over the last two weeks to bring his batting average back to a respectable .236. He’s actually a pretty good contact hitter but his .256 BABIP is the sole reason he’s not hitting in the .280s. San Diego third baseman Chase Headley is not widely available but he does supply a bit of speed to his .299 batting average. Headley has eight swipes on the year and totaled seventeen stolen bases last year. His power is lacking but he is still a solid option. The only other option at third base is the Florida outfielder Emilio Bonifacio who has third base eligibility. Bonifacio plays all over the place with the Marlins so he may have a place on your team regardless. Bonifacio has eleven steals in the last two weeks alone as well as a slew of multi hit games. He doesn’t bring the power and he will cool off but he is still an option at third in place of A-Rod.

Mike Trout Promoted, What’s Next?

At just nineteen years old, Mike Trout, the number one prospect in baseball has been promoted to the Angels and will bat ninth Friday night.

Analysis: There are two ways to approach Mike Trout’s promotion. You can pluck him up off the wire and either keep him or trade him. Nineteen year olds no matter how talented typically do not set the majors on fire. If he gets off to a good start it would be wise to take advantage of the hype machine and deal the center fielder for a sure thing. However, if you do decide to keep Trout he should be able to contribute in all five roto categories(until the Peter Bourjos situation plays out). Trout hit .330 with 29 stolen bases and 9 bombs in just 74 Double A games this year. He certainly is ready for the big time but he’s not quite ready to be a fantasy force. We also have to consider that Peter Bourjos will be coming back sooner than later with a hamstring injury and with the money tied up with Vernon Wells and Torii Hunter you would have to think Trout might be going back down to the minors when it is clear Bourjos is healthy.