Author: TJ Streett

Undervalued- Michael Morse

Michael Morse isn’t getting much love this year from fantasy owners. Keep in mind that the fences at Safeco Field are significantly closer this year and the left field wall is shorter.

Analysis: Michael Morse’s average draft position in the 150-160 range is fine if he plays in 120 games but if he stays healthy he will easily outperform it. Morse has played in 248 games over the past two years but he does have 49 home runs during that span. All Morse needs to do this year is stay healthy. He’s back in the American League which is always a plus for a guy like Morse who can DH in addition to playing the outfield and first base. Let us not underestimate the Seattle offense this year. Kendrys Morales, Kyle Seager and Justin Smoak can mash, Jesus Montero should finally tap into his potential and Dustin Ackley is poised for a break-out year.

The biggest problem I have with Morse’s fantasy value is that a few surprising outfielders are being taken ahead of him. Alejandro De Aza(28 years old) has never hit 10 home runs in a season nor has he stolen more than 26 bags. Torii Hunter is 37 years old and coming off of a 16 homer year in 140 games played. Hunter’s .389 BABIP in 2012 was 82 points above his career average… expect a huge dip in his batting average.

 

Overvalued- Edwin Encarnacion

Edwin Encarnacion is coming off of a 42 home run, 110 RBI year but can he sustain his recent success?

Analysis: Toronto is much improved but the stats don’t support Edwin Encarnacion meeting or exceeding his ADP. Encarnacion’s HR/FB rate last year was 18.7%, 5.6% above his career average. He’s thirty years old now so we know what we are getting for the most part and another forty homer year isn’t in the cards. Most respectable projections have him in the 26-33 home run range but don’t go expecting 40 again like some sites are predicting.

To his credit, Encarnacion’s walk rate went up last year and his BABIP kept his batting average lower than it should have been. Encarnacion swung at a career low 21% of pitches outside the strike zone last year according to PITCHf/x. Even with all these positives his average draft position sits in the 30-38 range which is entirely too high. There are plenty of “buy low” options this year at first base/DH. Ryan Howard(110 ADP) had 14 bombs in 71 games last year coming off of a major injury without a spring training.

Undervalued- Starling Marte

Starling Marte posted a .257 batting average with 5 home runs and 12 stolen bases in just 47 games with the Pirates last year.

Analysis: Marte’s tools are comparable to Cameron Maybin, Carlos Gomez and Desmond Jennings’ tools. He won’t be a high average guy and he strikes out a lot but he is a cheap power/speed roto option. Most projections have him hitting 13-15 HR with 25-30 SB this year while hitting in the .275 range(ESPN- 9 HR/18 SB). His batting average may dip into BJ Upton territory because of his low contact rate but he will steal 30 bags this year if he plays in 145 games.

Marte is the 64th outfielder being taken in ESPN leagues at the moment. Considering Desmond Jennings is being taken as the 21st outfielder and Cameron Maybin the 56th, there is quite a bit of value drafting Marte over those guys. If he is to reach his projections this year he will have to walk at a higher clip so watch him closely early on. Marte should stay with the Pirates all year even if he does struggle at the plate because his fielding is Gold Glove caliber.

Stock Watch- Webster

Martell Webster is coming off of a 34 point game against the Suns and his stock seems to be on the rise.

Analysis: There are plenty of positives when it comes to Martell Webster’s fantasy value. He’s averaging 35 minutes per game, 3.4 threes made per game and 16.7 points per game in the month of March. Those are great numbers from the twenty-six year old but there are causes for concern. Webster is averaging a combined 0.8 blocks plus steals per game this year in 29 minutes. That simply won’t cut it especially from a guy with his type of athleticism playing tons of minutes. Webster is also averaging 3.8 rebounds per game this year which is awful from a 6’7″ small forward in again… 29 minutes per game this season.

You have to know what you are getting yourself into with Webster. He hits threes and scores while shooting a respectable percentage from the field but he hurts you in the blocks, steals and rebounds department as a small forward. If he’s the right fit for you he may still be on the wire, he’s available in 50% of fantasy leagues.

Last Call On Tobias Enstrom

Tobias Enstrom is nearing a return to action after missing one month from injury.

Analysis: Tobias Enstrom is still probably about a week away if not more from returning to action from a shoulder injury. Enstrom is available in 10-50% of fantasy leagues but he is going fast. At the time of his injury he was having a career year averaging 24 minutes of ice time per game and an elite mark of .84 assists per game. He’s also put up 6 power play points in just 13 games played which is still a team high. For his career Enstrom is averaging .46 assists per game which is in the top ten among active defensemen.

Enstrom may not score tons of goals and his plus/minus may be pedestrian but he is one elite defensemen. His assists, ice time and power play points make him a top twenty defensemen going forward this year. The only reason he remains available in so many leagues is because he plays in Winnipeg and he’s not from North America. Holding out for an exact date for his return will cost you if you choose to wait in this situation.