Author: TJ Streett

Draft Impact- Michael Floyd

Michael Floyd is as polished as any wide out to come out of college in the last few years.

Analysis: Michael Floyd has the size, 6’3″, 220 pounds and the speed to be a productive fantasy wide out. He will benefit greatly from the attention Larry Fitzgerald will receive. At the moment Floyd is the thirty-eighth wide out being taken in fantasy mock drafts and that is a solid place for him. He should put up numbers very similar to Justin Blackmon this year especially if Kevin Kolb can play up to his potential in his second year in Arizona.

Where Floyd can really do some damage is in the red zone and with Larry Fitzgerald drawing double teams, Floyd should have some favorable matchups. Early Doucet and the Arizona tight ends do not have the athletic ability or the talent in the air that Floyd possesses. He will certainly be the number two option for the Cardinals in all situations in the upcoming 2012 season. Even with the return of running back Ryan Williams, Arizona’s two best athletes on offense remain Fitzgerald and Floyd. Expect WR3 type numbers at a surprisingly reasonable ADP from the rookie.

Last Call On Edinson Volquez

Edinson Volquez shut down the Phillies Saturday lasting 6.0 innings and only giving up one earned run.

Analysis: Edinson Volquez has only given up more than three earned runs in just one of his eight starts this year. His 2.79 ERA ranks twenty-third in the National League and his forty-three strikeouts is eleventh best in the National League as well. Yes, he is pitching at Petco Park but who cares… his fantasy owners love that fact. Volquez is available in well over sixty percent of fantasy leagues and he will be gone soon. He isn’t known for his consistency but he’s only had one bad outing in eight starts.

Volquez is walking slightly fewer batters this year but the biggest difference with his game has been the re-emergence of his changeup. Only a handful of big league pitchers have a better change than Volquez and it’s great to see him use it with dominance once again. Volquez isn’t just a “pick him up while he is hot” starter, he’s a legit lower tier starter pitching at Petco. It’s last call on Edinson Volquez.

Buying Low- AJ Burnett

AJ Burnett has a 6.08 ERA this year and allowed twelve earned runs against the Cardinals last week. So… why am I buying AJ Burnett?

Analysis: AJ Burnett has only made four starts this year and we all know about the twelve earned run game. But, what you may not know is that in Burnett’s other threes games he’s only allowed four runs in 21.0 innings for a 1.71 ERA in those starts. AJ Burnett has pitched three remarkable games this year in four starts, period.

Burnett’s K/9 rate is 10.27, a career high thus far but it is only four games into the season. Remember, he’s back pitching in the Natioanl League and he doesn’t have to face the Rays, BoSox or that Toronto lineup on a daily basis anymore. His fastball, curve and change are all at the same velocity as in year’s past, so no need to worry about his stuff. The 6.08 ERA might scare some away but he has been pitching well. Burnett is owned in less than ten percent of fantasy leagues and now is the time to buy the veteran at the lowest his value can possibly be. If you are buying stock right now you have to be looking at AJ or at the very least Edinson Volquez.

Draft Impact- Justin Blackmon

The Jacksonville Jaguars traded up to get Oklahoma State wide out Justin Blackmon with the fifth pick of the 2012 NFL Draft.

Analysis: Here we have another rookie in Blackmon who finds himself in an awful situation. We don’t need to look any further than the futility of Jacksonville quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert finished the 2011 season playing in fifteen NFL games with a 50.8 completion percentage, thirty-second “best” in the NFL and one spot above Tim Tebow in last place. Gabbert finished thirty-third in yards per passing attempt, just behind Colt McCoy, Christian Ponder and Curtis Painter. Gabbert also finished thirty-third in the NFL last year with a passer rating of 65.4. Considering only thirty-three quarterbacks in the NFL in 2011 qualified to have a passer rating… Gabbert finished last or next to last in some very important quarterback statistics.

As talented as Justin Blackmon is, he will only go as far as Blaine Gabbert will allow him to go. At the moment, Blackmon is the thirty-third wide out being taken in twelve team format mock drafts. Other wide outs being taken at or near his average draft position include Brandon Lloyd, Eric Decker, Torrey Smith and Mike Williams(TB). Lloyd has Brady in a pass happy offense, Decker seems to be Manning’s new best friend, Torrey Smith is a burner with seven touchdowns as a rookie and Williams is a low risk sleeper at his ADP this year. Justin Blackmon will not outperform the wide outs at his ADP because Blaine Gabbert isn’t even on Mark Sanchez’s level.

Draft Impact- RG3 A QB1?

Robert Griffin III on average is the 12th quarterback being taken in mock drafts at the moment. In some leagues this would put RG3 into QB1 status.

Analysis: While he has all the tools to succeed, it is just too difficult to expect a rookie quarterback on the Redskins to instantly become a fantasy football QB1. You have to approach drafting RG3 knowing that another borderline QB1/QB2 will be needed in case the Skins implode. Matt Schaub or Jay Cutler coming off of an injury would be great under the radar options to pair with RG3. You could stream two later round quarterbacks and have a beefed up running back/wide out situation or perhaps an elite tight end. Regardless, a healthy Schaub or Cutler with Brandon Marshall will be solid options to pair with the rookie.

While I cannot endorse RG3 as a QB1 yet, the return of franchise tagged tight end Fred Davis will be huge. Davis surpassed the eighty yard mark six times in twelve games last year. Davis also finished eighth among tight ends with 796 receiving yards in just those twelve games. With Pierre Garcon now in the mix in Washington along with Leonard Hankerson, Santana Moss and Anthony Armstrong, the Skins do have some solid weapons for Griffin. RG3 really needs to run for over 600 yards to put up QB1 numbers this year which he did three times during his college career.