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Justin Blackmon – FantasySP Blog

Streaming Defenses- Week 10

Week nine is officially over and now it’s time to take a look at our “team to stream” in week ten.

Analysis: The Tennessee Titans are at home this week against the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. Chad Henne will continue to start at quarterback for the 0-8 Jags. Henne is sporting a 75.3 passer rating this year and has 5 interceptions to only 3 touchdowns. The Jacksonville offense did get a bit of life when Justin Blackmon returned from suspension but once again he is suspended and will enter a rehab facility for substance abuse.

The Jags are 32nd in the NFL in yards per game, 32nd in points per game(10.8), 27th in plays over forty yards and they have allowed the 6th most sacks. The Titans defense is pretty solid. They rank 9th in points per game against, 11th in yards allowed, 17th in sacks and 2nd in fumble recoveries. The Titans D/ST is available in 60-80% of fantasy leagues.

Another team to take a look at this week is the Miami defense against the Tampa Bay Bucs. Miami has played good defense in their last few games against solid offenses(CIN,NE) and rank 9th in interceptions and 10th in sacks. The Miami D is available in 80-90% of fantasy leagues.

Blackmon In Week 16?

Justin Blackmon has been playing significantly better in the second half of the season and makes an intriguing WR3/FLEX start in week 16.

Analysis: Justin Blackmon recorded 6 receptions for 93 yards Sunday against the Miami Dolphins. This was Blackmon’s second consecutive 6 reception game and second consecutive game with 11 or more targets. Blackmon is becoming a focal point in the Jacksonville offense and week 16 should be more of the same with a match-up at home against New England. We all know New England should score tons of points against the Jags next week and that means a lot of second half “junk” fantasy points for Blackmon.

At the moment Justin Blackmon is owned in seventy percent of fantasy leagues and is being started in thirty percent of them. It is a bit of a gamble to start Blackmon but his consistency is improving. He’s caught at least five balls in four of his last five games and tight end Marcedes Lewis seems to be phased out of the Jacksonville offense. It’s risky but week 16 against New England does figure to be a high target, six plus reception game from Blackmon.

Blackmon Back On Radar

With two consecutive solid games under his belt, Justin Blackmon is back on the fantasy radar.

Analysis: Justin Blackmon had his best fantasy game of his young NFL career posting 5 receptions for just 32 receiving yards and an all important touchdown Sunday against the Detroit Lions. Blackmon added to his previous best fantasy game last week(4 rec, 67 yards) as he finally seems more acclimated to the pro game.

The Oklahoma State product has been targeted 17 times over the past two weeks which is a postive sign considering he only averaged 5 targets per game in the first month of the season. I’m not saying Blackmon has turned the corner but he is improving which is what we saw from Michael Crabtree in his wasted rookie year.

At the moment Blackmon is available in over half of fantasy leagues and he is worth roster consideration. His targets seem to be stable and if he can limit his drops and be on the end of more accurate passes he may even have some value in PPR leagues… although I wouldn’t hold my breath. There aren’t many wide outs available on the wire that will be targeted as much as Blackmon but he is far from reliable as he lands back on the fantasy radar.

Sticking With Blackmon?

Justin Blackmon is one of the most dropped fantasy wide outs over the past few weeks but a solid game in week four may have you thinking otherwise.

Analysis: Justin Blackmon was targeted 10 times Sunday, twice as many as any other Jacksonville wide out or back. His 6 receptions and 48 receiving yards also led the Jags. Considering Blackmon was only targeted an average of 5 times per game in his previous three contests it isn’t hard to see why he hasn’t been putting up numbers. In order to make a contribution in the fantasy world you have to score touchdowns and it doesn’t appear Blackmon will be lighting up the scoreboard any time soon.

At this point in the season Blackmon will make a solid depth addition in PPR leagues but in standard leagues he just isn’t going to have many 85 yard days or reach the end zone enough. The only reason to keep him around in standard leagues rests with the health of one Laurent Robinson. Robinson left Sunday’s game with a head injury just one week after suffering a concussion in week three.

Draft Impact- Justin Blackmon

The Jacksonville Jaguars traded up to get Oklahoma State wide out Justin Blackmon with the fifth pick of the 2012 NFL Draft.

Analysis: Here we have another rookie in Blackmon who finds himself in an awful situation. We don’t need to look any further than the futility of Jacksonville quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert finished the 2011 season playing in fifteen NFL games with a 50.8 completion percentage, thirty-second “best” in the NFL and one spot above Tim Tebow in last place. Gabbert finished thirty-third in yards per passing attempt, just behind Colt McCoy, Christian Ponder and Curtis Painter. Gabbert also finished thirty-third in the NFL last year with a passer rating of 65.4. Considering only thirty-three quarterbacks in the NFL in 2011 qualified to have a passer rating… Gabbert finished last or next to last in some very important quarterback statistics.

As talented as Justin Blackmon is, he will only go as far as Blaine Gabbert will allow him to go. At the moment, Blackmon is the thirty-third wide out being taken in twelve team format mock drafts. Other wide outs being taken at or near his average draft position include Brandon Lloyd, Eric Decker, Torrey Smith and Mike Williams(TB). Lloyd has Brady in a pass happy offense, Decker seems to be Manning’s new best friend, Torrey Smith is a burner with seven touchdowns as a rookie and Williams is a low risk sleeper at his ADP this year. Justin Blackmon will not outperform the wide outs at his ADP because Blaine Gabbert isn’t even on Mark Sanchez’s level.