Author: TJ Streett

Losing Faith In Maybin?

Cameron Maybin is being dropped in nearly twenty percent of fantasy baseball leagues for no other reason than impatience.

Analysis: I can see why a .200 batting average could scare some owners but I cannot see why some are losing faith in Cameron Maybin. Despite the awful average Maybin has stolen eight bases, fifth best on all of baseball. Considering he had forty steals and nine homers last year we all need a little patience in his case. Maybin is only a career .250 hitter with a 25% strikeout rate, so there will be plenty of ups and downs during the season for the former Marlin and Tiger.

Cameron Maybin may not be hitting particularly well but he is getting on base as of late. Maybin has drawn five walks in his last four games. For an outfielder with a career 8.2% walk rate you have to love that he is still finding a way to get on base. I still expect numbers similar to last year’s line- .264 BA, 40 SB, 9 HR, 82 R, 40 RBI. He has some power but hitting in Petco isn’t exactly like hitting at Coors Field. Be patient and have some faith in the twenty-five year old, he is still incredibly raw.

Draft Impact- Trent Richardson

Trent Richardson is the best running back to come out of college since Darren McFadden. “Experts” have been feeding the hype machine calling this kid the best back since Adrian Peterson.

Analysis: As much as I love Trent Richardson, he just did not end up in the right situation. First off, take a look at the AFC North defenses. The Ravens, Steelers and Bengals all finished in the top ten in the NFL in rushing yards against per game last year. All three divisional rivals also finished in the top ten in the NFL in yards per carry against. Richardson found himself in the worst possible division to rush the ball, plain and simple. To compound the situation the Cleveland quarterback situation is not solid. Any novice can see that you stack the box against the Browns now and make them beat you in the air.

All these negatives don’t mean he won’t have an offensive rookie of the year campaign but don’t go expecting RB1 type numbers. He will be drafted by some impressionable fantasy owner as a RB1 which means he should not be on your fantasy team this year. The real winner here is Cleveland wide out Greg Little. Little amassed over 700 receiving yards in his rookie year. With all the attention Richardson will receive Little could make a run at 1,000 receiving yards in 2012 if he can limit his drops.

Deep League Help- Pedro Alvarez

Pedro Alvarez is hitting just .203 this year but his recent success should come as no surprise.

Analysis: Pedro Alvarez possesses elite power and he is finally starting to show signs of it. Alvarez has hit four home runs in his last ten games. Throw in the eight hits he has amassed over his last six games and you have yourself a very hot third baseman. Having depth at the third base position in fantasy baseball is always a huge plus so picking up Alvarez in deeper leagues just makes sense. Alvarez is available in well over ninety percent of leagues across the country.

Keep in mind that Alvarez does not hit lefties well, he has a .211 batting average against them for his career with a .329 slugging percentage. While he may not even hit .250 this year his home run and RBI potential make him a great sleeper at this point in the season. As always you can sell him high down the road or chuck him if he starts striking out more than Mark Reynolds. With Ryan Zimmerman out for now and his health issues in the past it does make sense to stockpile depth at third base.

Last Call On Mike Trout

Mike Trout is back in the big leagues once again and hopefully he can make it stick this time.

Analysis: Mike Trout is two games into his return to the Angels and his situation still is not entirely clear. He has been leading off but will likely split some time with Peter Bourjos and Vernon Wells. On the negative side of things, Trout did only hit .220 last year in 123 at-bats. However, the kid is still just twenty years old. He is an extremely toolsy outfielder and a 20 HR/40 SB season from him is only a few years away. Trout is just too good for the minors at this point in his career. In Double-A last year Trout hit .326 with 33 stolen bases and 11 home runs in just ninety-one games. This year in Triple-A Trout has posted a .403 batting average with six swipes.

Mike Trout is already owned in about half of fantasy leagues and his stock is rising. He does make a fine sell high candidate here especially if he cannot lower his strikeout rate. Keep in mind that there still is the possibility of limited playing time in his case.

Draft Impact- Andrew Luck

Rookie quarterbacks who come into the league and have instant success almost always have a solid running game and defense to lean on. In 2011 the Colts finished 26th in total rushing yards and 25th in total defense.

Analysis: Maybe I’m the only one who isn’t on the Andrew Luck bandwagon but I just can’t see it. The Pac-12 is just an awful defensive conference. On top of that, Stanford had an awesome offensive line and a great running game(20th in nation). Take Luck’s three biggest games last year(Oregon, USC, OkSt), he threw four interceptions and only ran for twenty yards on eighteen carries.

Let’s face it, the Colts have tons of issues aside from Jim Irsay’s unparelleled narcissism. Jacob Tamme is now in Denver and there is a reason Peyton didn’t want Dallas Clark and neither do the Colts… he’s a shell of his former self. Donald Brown has yet to run for 700 yards in a season and Delone Carter certainly is not the answer. The defense will not be helping Luck out either, they allowed 26.9 points per game, fifth worst in the NFL. As a result Luck will be throwing tons of second half picks playing catch up. Keep in mind that AFC South rivals the Jags, Texans and Titans all finished in the top eleven in points allowed in 2011(under 21 PPG). Expect one “unlucky” fantasy year for the “next” John Elway.