Author: TJ Streett

Last Call On Colby Rasmus

Colby Rasmus has a four game hitting streak going and is finally starting to turn his season around.

Analysis: Since Rasmus’ batting average dipped down to .203, he has amassed ten hits with seven being extra base hits in his last seven games. Rasmus has also homered in each of his last two games. Considering Colby is owned in just forty percent of fantasy leagues, it just may be the last call for the red hot outfielder.

There is a lot to like about Rasmus at the moment. He’s hitting second now in the Toronto lineup with Yunel Escobar moving up to leadoff. There really is nothing like hitting in front of Jose Bautista if you are in a slump, see what Escobar has done over the past two weeks. Rasmus may never live up to the hype that he received in St. Louis, but he is a solid ballplayer with some pop. Expect 20 homers, 10 steals and 60 plus runs by season’s end. His batting average going forward should be at or near his career average of .247. Rasmus really just needed some time to hit his way out of his slump, he clearly isn’t a .203 hitter with a sub .300 OBP.

Selling High- Derek Jeter

Derek Jeter is hitting .348 with 5 HR and 3 SB this year. On the surface this appears to be a great line, however, these numbers are a bit inflated.

Analysis: Jeter’s five home runs is perhaps the biggest surprise considering he only hit six bombs in 131 games last year. Jeter’s HR/FB rate is at 21.7% this year, a career high and 9.2% above his career average. His home run total should not be above eleven or twelve by season’s end. Let’s move on to his .348 batting average. Jeter’s BABIP is over .370 this year and about twenty points above his career average. We also have to take into account that as the season wears on the thirty-seven year old, his stolen base numbers will start to taper off. Eleven and not eighteen steals is what Jeter will wind up with. His stolen base totals have declined in each of the last two years and he’s only stolen more than twenty bags once over the past five years.

Jeter’s run total is his true strength outside of his batting average and that run total will be there for you at the end of the season, but 14 HR or 14 SB will not. Regardless of his inflated stats, his name alone should be enough to sell high on.

Selling High- Jeremy Hellickson

Jeremy Hellickson is sporting a 2.77 ERA and a 4-0 record this year. So, why are we selling him?

Analysis: Jeremy Hellickson’s FIP is 4.78 this year while his ERA sits at 2.77. He actually leads the league in ERA minus FIP this year by quite a large margin. To further his seemingly good stat line is his left on base percentage of 88.1%, which is third in all of baseball. You cannot sustain an 88.1 LOB% over the course of a season. To put it in perspective, Roy Halladay’s career LOB% is 73.6 and it is 71.4% this year. Jeremy Hellickson is a solid pitcher with an excellent changeup, however, a sub 3.5 ERA is not going to happen this year.

It’s time to sell Hellickson as soon as possible. He isn’t a strikeout machine and his numbers will fall back down to earth sooner or later. Even his BABIP against is at .233 which is thirteenth best or luckiest(which ever you prefer) in baseball this year. Again, to put it in perspective, Roy Halladay’s career BABIP against is .292 and .280 this year. All signs point to selling and selling high here.

Buying Low- Yunel Escobar

With just a .254 batting average this season, Yunel Escobar is being dropped at an increased rate from fantasy squads across the country.

Analysis: Yunel Escobar is a player that you have to be patient with. He falls into long slumps but when he is on… he catches fire. At the moment he is hitting in front of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion who are both in the top ten in homers this year. The youngster Brett Lawrie will be back from suspension Monday to add yet another dangerous bat in the Toronto lineup to drive in Escobar. Teams have to pitch to Yunel and when he turns it around he will be one productive shortstop.

Thus far this year Escobar is hitting .26 points below his career BABIP of .312. When the balls start dropping his average will bounce back around to his career average of .287. Even though Escobar’s power numbers should be peaking he is finding other ways to be productive. Escobar’s twenty-three runs are sixth best among all big league shortstops. Yunel is widely available and his stock is falling right as his production will start to rise again.

Buying Low- Rickie Weeks

Rickie Weeks is batting just .154 thus far this year which means it is time to buy.

Analysis: Rickie Weeks did miss three starts over the past weekend due to a swollen hand/wrist. Putting the injury aside, a .154 batting average with just 7 RBI is not what anyone signed up for when drafting Weeks. There is some positive news to report though. Weeks’ BABIP is just .205, a full .100 points below his career average of .305. His strikeout rate is up a bit but he is actually walking four percent above his career average this year.

Weeks is being dropped in many fantasy leagues across the country purely out of impatience. Keep in mind that Rickie has averaged 25 HR, 10 SB with a .269 BA over the past two years at second base. Second base is not a deep fantasy position and adding Weeks at a low price is the intelligent play here.

Even looking at Weeks’ isloated power of .151 this year, it’s only .27 points below his career average. Rickie will be fine and he will finish with respectable numbers. Weeks will have considerable value in a few months and depth is always a good thing to have at the trade deadline.