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CJ Spiller – FantasySP Blog

Week 16 RB Recap

CJ Spiller and Chris Ivory each carried the ball twenty times in their week sixteen contests.

Analysis: CJ Spiller rushed for 77 yards on 20 carries and tacked on 26 receiving yards on Sunday afternoon against Miami. Spiller is averaging 15 carries, 79 rushing yards and 15 receiving yards over his last four games. Although Spiller is available in about 2% of fantasy leagues he is only being started in just over half of all leagues. Up next for Spiller is the New England Patriots. The Patriots rank 31st in rushing yards allowed and 24th in yards per carry against.

Chris Ivory is another back coming on strong. Ivory is averaging 15 carries and 78 rushing yards over his last four games. Ivory carried the rock 20 times for 109 yards today against the Browns who have a top ten defense against the run this year. Chris Ivory is available in 10-20% of fantasy leagues at the moment. Up next for Ivory is the Miami Dolphins. Miami is 22nd in rushing yards allowed and 17th in yards per carry against this year.

Streaming Defenses- Week 7

With week six officially over it’s time to take a look at the “team to stream” in week seven.

Analysis: This week we will take the Miami Dolphins coming off a bye week at home against the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo quarterback Thad Lewis was serviceable in week six at home against the Bengals but he did get banged up and playing on the road is a different animal altogether. Miami pass rusher Cameron Wake is expected to play this week which is always a plus for the eight point favorite Dolphins.

Miami is a middle of the road defensive team in most statistical categories. They have performed well from a fantasy perspective with the exception of the Monday night game in New Orleans. Before Miami’s bye this past week they held Joe Flacco to a 73.6 passer rating and also held Ray Rice to a 2.7 yards per carry average on 27 rushing attempts. As for the Buffalo offense- we don’t know much. Thad Lewis isn’t expected to light it up on the road and CJ Spiller has been a non-factor with the ankle injury.

The Dolphins D/ST is available in 80-90% of fantasy leagues.

ADP Watch- Fred Jackson

Fred Jackson in the thirteenth running back being taken off the board in standard league drafts. His ADP sits in the 24-34 range.

Analysis: Fred Jackson has only rushed for over 1,000 yards just once in his career. In fact, he’s never scored more than six rushing touchdowns in one season either and he’s thirty-one years old. Many experts are putting a lot of stock into what he did early in the 2011 season and consider him a borderline RB1/RB2. Jackson has also never carried the rock more than 237 times in a season which would have been the fifteenth most in the NFL last year. Will he carry the ball enough to put up the yards and can he break his career high of six rushing touchdowns? Will he stay productive as the season wears on the thirty-one year old vet?

There seems to be plenty of question marks regarding Fred Jackson and very few statistics that give you confidence going forward. CJ Spiller is ready for a breakout season and he put together a very solid second half last year. It just doesn’t make sense to draft Jackson as a borderline RB1/RB2 when guys like Michael Turner(23TDs last two years) and BGE(24TDs last two years) are out there later in drafts.

Overrated- Cedric Benson

Cedric Benson is being taken as the 25th back off the board in fantasy drafts but taking him as a borderline RB2/RB3 is a huge mistake.

Analysis: Cedric Benson fumbled the ball seven times last year, losing five of them- that’s not what you want from a “reliable” fantasy back. Benson also carried the ball 321 times last year yet his longest rush was only twenty-six yards. We also have to consider that in two of the last three years he’s avergaed just 3.5 yards per carry and he’s caught more than twenty balls just once in his career. At this point in his career it does not appear that Cedric Benson is improving in any facet of his game.

Rookie Andy Dalton will not keep that eighth man out of the box like Carson Palmer could and the slow Benson may have even more problems breaking off long runs. The problem with Benson is you do not want him as your RB2 but you’ll waste a pick drafting him early as your RB3. Consider BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Daniel Thomas at this point in your fantasy draft, certainly not Cedric Benson. Also, a back like CJ Spiller offers more upside fifty picks later.