Category: MLB

Deep League Help- Hellickson

Jeremy Hellickson is worth owning in deeper leagues despite his 5.67 ERA.

Analysis: Over the past few years Jeremy Hellickson has been one lucky pitcher if you go by “ERA minus FIP.” This year is completely the opposite. Hellickson’s ERA minus FIP is 1.48 which is third in baseball. A lot of his unlucky and inflated numbers can be attributed to his strand rate of 60%- 18% below his career average and third worst among qualified starters. When his numbers were low over the past years he made a great sell high option now he’s a perfect buy low candidate.

Hellickson’s 1.26 WHIP is 53rd in baseball this year and ahead of guys like Cole Hamels and Justin Verlander. His walk rate is also 25th best in baseball. His xFIP is a respectable 4.03 and ahead of guys like Dan Haren, Wandy Rodriguez, Matt Moore and Ian Kennedy. He’s not a fantasy baseball savior but he can help your ratios and he isn’t bad in the strikeout department either. He has 66 K’s this year which is 53rd among all pitchers and 26th in the American League.

Hellickson is not as bad as his 5.67 ERA, expect a 4.00 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP going forward.

Stock Rising- Eric Hosmer

Eric Hosmer is the 8th best roto first baseman in the month of June.

Analysis: It appears that Eric Hosmer is finally finding his groove this season. He’s hitting .319 with 1 home run, 2 stolen bases and 10 runs in the month of June. He has five multi-hit games this month and now has his batting average up to .273 this year. He is quite capable of posting numbers like he did in his rookie year- .293 AVG, 19 HR, 11 SB, 78 RBI and it seems he is back on track. Hosmer has always projected as a poor man’s Joey Votto in the fantasy world and that isn’t a bad thing. The biggest plus going for Hosmer right now is his 5 stolen bases this year which is second among major league first baseman.

Hosmer is available in 35-50% of fantasy leagues which does come as a surprise considering his play this month. There are not many injuries at first base in baseball right now but there are tons of injuries piling up with outfielders. Depth is always a plus and that is exactly what Eric Hosmer should provide going forward.

Last Call On Cameron Maybin

Cameron Maybin has four games under his belt after being out with a wrist injury for nearly two months.

Analysis: Maybin has made a significant impact in his return. He has 4 stolen bases, 1 home run, 4 runs, 5 hits and 4 RBI in his first four games back. This is really good news considering Maybin was batting under .100 through ten games in April prior to the injury. We have to remember that Maybin has averaged 9 home runs and 33 stolen bases over the past two years… so we know he can contribute.

The Maybin hype is just getting started so it is time to pluck the twenty-six year old up off the wire now if you are in need of some speed and power potential. The runs should come with consistency after he climbs higher in the San Diego batting order although it has not been a problem thus far. His batting average should not be much of a concern going forward. He is a career .248 hitter and the sub .100 batting average was due to an extremely low BABIP. At the moment Maybin is available in 70-80% of fantasy leagues.

Sticking With Gallardo

Yovani Gallardo has been one of the most heavily dropped fantasy starters over the past week.

Analysis: It isn’t without reason that Gallardo’s stock is falling. He’s allowed four or more earned runs over his last three starts and his ERA thus far sits at 5.25. His poor performances have left him available in 10-30% of leagues nationwide. But there are some positives to take away from this.

Gallardo’s strand rate is 8% above his career average this year. His BABIP against is .023 points above his career average and his HR/FB rate is 5% above his career average. So… what can we take away? Well, Gallardo’s xFIP is a solid 3.71. He may not be dominant but he is serviceable and has been a bit unlucky this year. His numbers will improve and he should not be dropped from leagues. Yes, his velocity is down a bit and with it the strikeouts. He isn’t an ace right now but he will produce going forward. His ERA minus FIP is 1.04 which is 11th in baseball this year— translation- Gallardo has been the 11th least lucky pitcher in baseball in 2013.

Under The Radar- Juan Pierre

Juan Pierre is the 50th rated roto outfielder this year yet somehow he remains under the radar.

Analysis: Pierre is 4th in all of baseball with 16 stolen bases. To this point in the season he has outperformed Ben Zobrist, Michael Bourn, Melky Cabrera and Ben Revere in roto leagues. Considering Everth Cabrera who leads major league baseball in steals may get suspended in the near future… it may be time to look for steals on the wire now. Pierre is available in 70-90% of fantasy leagues despite a recent hot streak. He’s put together 7 hits, 3 steals and 5 runs in his last four games. His BABIP is .050 points below his career average this year despite solid contact rates which means he should be hitting in the .275 plus range going forward.

Pierre does hurt you in the home run and RBI departments but from a roto perspective he is still getting the job done better than a lot of the bigger names out there. He’s on pace to steal over 40 bags this year and he could wind up on a contender come trade deadline time.