Category: MLB

Under The Radar- Roberts

Brian Roberts isn’t expected to do much this year but if he stays healthy he should put up solid numbers.

Analysis: Brian Roberts hit over .300 this spring and is hitting ninth in the Baltimore batting order. Hitting ninth isn’t that bad of a spot for Roberts. Nick Markakis, Manny Machado and Adam Jones are hitting “behind” him which means his run total could be more than respectable. Roberts is thirty-five years old but over his last 115 games he has stolen 19 bags and was only caught 4 times. Unfortunately those 115 games have taken place over the past three years due to various injuries. Roberts is a career .280 hitter so the only negatives will be his power numbers.

Roberts was 2 for 4 in the opener in Tampa which is always a good sign. He could be leading off and bump Markakis to the two spot if Manny Machado’s walk rate isn’t remotely decent. Either way, Brian Roberts should put up good numbers this year if he stays healthy. He’s available in well over ninety percent of fantasy leagues which is understandable. Monitor his health and especially his batting average/BABIP going forward because he may be a valuable asset at second base in the near future.

Deep League Help- Alonso

Yonder Alonso opened his 2013 campaign with a home run in the sixth inning Monday afternoon against the New York Mets.

Analysis: His home run doesn’t have much to do with how valuable of a fantasy player Alonso is right now. The biggest plus out of the opener is his position in the San Diego batting order. As of now he’s hitting third in front of Carlos Quentin. Quentin is one of the most underrated bats in the game today. Carlos hit 16 homers last year in just 86 games played and has a career isolated power of .239. To put his power into perspective Adrian Beltre’s career isolated power is just .196 while Matt Holliday has a career ISO of .223.

Yonder Alonso is now twenty-five years old and has over 200 games under his belt with a respectable career batting average of .278. As of opening day he is available in well over ninety percent of leagues and if he continues to hit third in the San Diego batting order he will put up fantasy relevant numbers and see plenty of hittable pitches in front of Carlos Quentin.

Overvalued- Jordan Zimmermann

Jordan Zimmermann is being drafted as a solid SP2 this year but the sabermetrics say otherwise.

Analysis: Jordan Zimmermann is the 20th starting pitcher being taken in drafts. The twenty-six year old has put together two solid seasons in a row but there are causes for concern. Zimmermann’s stand rate in 2012 was 79.3% which was the fifth best in baseball last year. His career average sits at 74.7%. Zimmermann did post a 2.94 ERA last year but if we take a look at his xFIP of 3.78 we clearly see there should be a regression this year.

Jordan Zimmermann will put up good numbers in 2013 but wasting such a high pick on him doesn’t make sense. He’s not a high strikeout guy and his ERA should not be below 3.50. He is primarily a two pitch pitcher and if he struggles to locate his fastball or slider he gets roughed up. There are plenty of better options later in the draft for you but if you have already drafted it may be time to sell before the fantasy world realizes that you have a SP3 on your hands.

Undervalued- Michael Morse

Michael Morse isn’t getting much love this year from fantasy owners. Keep in mind that the fences at Safeco Field are significantly closer this year and the left field wall is shorter.

Analysis: Michael Morse’s average draft position in the 150-160 range is fine if he plays in 120 games but if he stays healthy he will easily outperform it. Morse has played in 248 games over the past two years but he does have 49 home runs during that span. All Morse needs to do this year is stay healthy. He’s back in the American League which is always a plus for a guy like Morse who can DH in addition to playing the outfield and first base. Let us not underestimate the Seattle offense this year. Kendrys Morales, Kyle Seager and Justin Smoak can mash, Jesus Montero should finally tap into his potential and Dustin Ackley is poised for a break-out year.

The biggest problem I have with Morse’s fantasy value is that a few surprising outfielders are being taken ahead of him. Alejandro De Aza(28 years old) has never hit 10 home runs in a season nor has he stolen more than 26 bags. Torii Hunter is 37 years old and coming off of a 16 homer year in 140 games played. Hunter’s .389 BABIP in 2012 was 82 points above his career average… expect a huge dip in his batting average.

 

Overvalued- Edwin Encarnacion

Edwin Encarnacion is coming off of a 42 home run, 110 RBI year but can he sustain his recent success?

Analysis: Toronto is much improved but the stats don’t support Edwin Encarnacion meeting or exceeding his ADP. Encarnacion’s HR/FB rate last year was 18.7%, 5.6% above his career average. He’s thirty years old now so we know what we are getting for the most part and another forty homer year isn’t in the cards. Most respectable projections have him in the 26-33 home run range but don’t go expecting 40 again like some sites are predicting.

To his credit, Encarnacion’s walk rate went up last year and his BABIP kept his batting average lower than it should have been. Encarnacion swung at a career low 21% of pitches outside the strike zone last year according to PITCHf/x. Even with all these positives his average draft position sits in the 30-38 range which is entirely too high. There are plenty of “buy low” options this year at first base/DH. Ryan Howard(110 ADP) had 14 bombs in 71 games last year coming off of a major injury without a spring training.