Player News – Page 130 – FantasySP Blog

Dirk Nowitzki is Still Putting Up Great Numbers

Dirk appears to be more machine than man as he continues to put up ridiculous fantasy numbers season after season, despite his advancing age.

Analysis: Once again Dirk is easily a top 10 fantasy pick in all leagues. He’s getting older but hasn’t lost any of his effectiveness. I believe if Dirk wanted to he could hit his fade-away jumper until he was in his 50s, nobody can defend it. While Dirk missed a stretch of this season and came back a little slow, he seems to be back to full speed once again. Dirk’s points are down a little but he has made improvements in other facets of his game that make up for the little scoring drop. He is shooting career highs in both field goal percentage and three point percentage, at 52% and 43% respectively. With Dallas tied for the second best record in the league, and Dirk having arguably his best teammates ever, he is more motivated than ever. Dallas is set to make a legitimate championship run this season and Dirk will take the lead just as he normally does.

Projection: Dirk continues to get it done in a variety of ways and you should capitalize on his stats if you’re lucky enough to get him. Tonight Dirk destroyed the Raptors shooting 11-20, good for 31 points, and grabbed 13 boards. Pretty good for a 32 year old European.

Shooting Bricks With Jose Calderon

We all know Jose Calderon can dish out plenty of assists, but is the rest of his game stable enough to be a potent fantasy option.

Analysis: Jose is actually having a career year in terms of assists, but can’t seem to find his shooting stroke. In his last 10 games Jose is shooting a horrid 29% from the field. However in the same 10 game stretch he is averaging almost 12 assists a game. Beautiful assist numbers contrasted by hideous shooting. The shooting is a strange occurrence because Jose has consistently shot close to 50% every season in the NBA, minus his rookie season. I expect Jose will eventually break out of his slump, but it is still cause for concern. Jose is grabbing some steals this season too, averaging a career high in that category. Jose has never been a high volume shooter so his shooting stats won’t hurt your team too much. After being completely overrated during last year’s fantasy season, Jose’s stock has come back down to earth.

Projection: If you need assists then pick up Jose because he will provide you them in bunches. On a positive note Jose had his first great shooting night in a while, tonight against Dallas, with 15 points on 7-10 shooting. One good game doesn’t necessarily mean he’s broken out of his slump, but it is a step in the right direction. Jose is a good fantasy point guard option this season even with terrible shooting percentages. When his shooting comes back, which it will, Jose will be a great pickup.

Matt Holliday, Josh Hamilton, Miguel Cabrera+: Consistent Mashers

Issue: For the careful fantasy player who wants bankable hitting production in HR, RBI, and R without damaging his team BA, where should he look?

Facts: Auction/Draft Prep Tools: Categories Leader Board Last 3 Seasons— Thirty-nine hitters with

60+HR

200+RBI

200+ R

.270+ BA.

Ranked below by BA.

Player	PA	HR	RBI	R	BA
Albert Pujols	2041	126	369	339	.331
Matt Holliday	1968	77	300	296	.315
Josh Hamilton	1640	74	284	236	.315
Hanley Ramirez	1964	78	249	318	.314
Miguel Cabrera	2017	109	356	292	.314
Joey Votto	1781	86	281	257	.314
Manny Ramirez	1405	65	226	202	.311
Kevin Youkilis	1644	75	271	267	.308
Robinson Cano	2004	68	266	276	.304
Ryan Braun	2055	94	323	306	.303
Justin Morneau	1650	71	285	235	.300
Vladimir Guerrero	1650	71	256	227	.300
David Wright	2023	72	299	290	.297
Ryan Zimmerman	1762	72	242	246	.294
Troy Tulowitzki	1578	67	233	238	.294
Andre Ethier	1866	74	265	253	.289
Derrek Lee	1939	74	281	264	.286
Alex Rodriguez	1724	95	328	256	.286
Adrian Beltre	1730	61	223	212	.286
Mark Teixeira	2104	105	351	318	.285
Adrian Gonzalez	2073	107	319	280	.285
Torii Hunter	1760	66	258	235	.285
Chase Utley	1905	80	262	300	.284
Evan Longoria	1840	82	302	263	.283
Raul Ibanez	1908	73	286	253	.281
Lance Berkman	1708	68	244	235	.281
Aubrey Huff	1926	73	279	255	.280
Prince Fielder	2127	112	326	283	.279
Jayson Werth	1810	87	251	277	.279
Matt Kemp	1992	72	266	272	0.279
Paul Konerko	1766	89	261	223	0.279
Hunter Pence	1947	75	246	247	0.278
Aramis Ramirez	1494	67	259	204	0.278
Vernon Wells	1796	66	232	226	0.275
Jason Kubel	1677	69	273	215	0.274
Jason Bay	1709	73	267	262	0.273
Ryan Ludwick	1707	76	279	230	0.273
Corey Hart	1743	63	241	231	0.271
J.D. Drew	1541	65	200	232	0.270

Analysis: Let’s put our arms around these 39 by slotting them into recognizable types:

Usually Out Performs His Salary: Drew (not sexy).

Post-Injury Bounce Back: Bay, Utley, Morneau.

May Have A Production Bump In Him: Hart, Kubel, Wells, Manny.

Possible Slight Bargain: Ludwick, Fielder, Huff, Berkman, Teixeira, Lee, Vlad, Cabrerra, Holliday.

Probably Over-Priced: Aramis, Konerko, Kemp, Werth, Ibanez, Adrian G., Beltre, A-Rod, Wright, Braun, Cano, Votto, Hanley, Hamilton.

Get What You Pay For: Pence, Longoria, Hunter, Ethier, Tulo, Zimmerman, Youkilis, Pujols.

Projections:

Name	AVG	R	RBI	HR	SB	AB
Albert Pujols	0.318	110	114	39	10	571
Ryan Braun	0.293	105	108	35	16	624
Hanley Ramirez	0.302	105	84	24	30	591
Miguel Cabrera	0.304	99	119	34	4	595
Joey Votto	0.297	97	109	32	11	581
Adrian Gonzalez	0.306	103	105	33	1	583
Matt Holliday	0.304	95	99	25	13	585
Troy Tulowitzki	0.291	96	103	26	12	561
Alex Rodriguez	0.280	89	118	32	11	517
David Wright	0.289	96	95	24	20	597
Robinson Cano	0.306	92	94	25	4	613
Josh Hamilton	0.306	86	102	26	9	541
Mark Teixeira	0.276	101	114	33	2	582
Jayson Werth	0.278	99	90	27	17	568
Evan Longoria	0.280	96	100	28	11	601
Kevin Youkilis	0.298	97	98	24	6	522
Matt Kemp	0.275	91	85	24	26	612
Chase Utley	0.278	98	88	24	14	542
Prince Fielder	0.274	89	98	34	3	551
Adrian Beltre	0.293	82	89	25	8	582
Brandon Phillips	0.268	95	84	21	20	635
Ryan Zimmerman	0.286	92	90	26	3	593
Hunter Pence	0.272	88	86	25	15	633
Justin Morneau	0.289	85	96	25	1	527
Andre Ethier	0.283	87	89	25	4	583
Torii Hunter	0.274	84	90	21	15	563
Vladimir Guerrero	0.281	78	91	26	4	512
Corey Hart	0.271	81	82	22	13	540
Aramis Ramirez	0.270	75	100	24	2	510
Derrek Lee	0.281	78	85	23	3	513
Aubrey Huff	0.267	85	89	20	4	576
Vernon Wells	0.265	81	81	20	9	595
Jason Bay	0.248	83	85	24	10	522
Raul Ibanez	0.278	70	79	20	3	472
Jason Kubel	0.267	68	82	21	2	494
Ryan Ludwick	0.253	73	85	23	3	532
J.D. Drew	0.265	77	70	20	4	456
Lance Berkman	0.262	71	74	18	7	464
Manny Ramirez	0.276	66	71	19	2	416

Jair Jurrjens – The Next Juan Marichal or Scott Sanderson?

Issue: As a 24 year old Jair Jurrjens followed up a fine 2009 season with a shortened 2010 season because of injuries. He seems to be fine in Spring Training, so who will he become over the rest of his career and most importantly in 2011? Will he pitch like Hall Of Famer Juan Marichal or Scott Sanderson?

Facts: Bill James created formulas in order to compare players of different eras. Comparing Jair’s career to date to other pitchers’ careers at the same age there are at least 10 similar hurlers. We’ll use 2 of them to compare careers in order to peer into the future of J.J. The two pitchers are Hall Of Famer Juan Marichal (16 season career) and Scott Sanderson (19 season career).

First, actual career stats for all 3 through age 24, then Marichal’s and Sanderson’s career stats beginning with the season they turned 25 and going through the remainder of their careers:

(ERA+ is adjusted to the hurler’s ball park. Counter intuitively the higher the better, with 100 = the league average.)

Player	From/To	Yrs	W	L	ERA	GS	SHO	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA+
Jurrjens	2007-2010	4	37	27	3.52	92	0	550.3	518	215	43	198	390	117
Marichal	1960-1962	3	37	23	3.44	74	7	529	475	202	63	166	335	109
Sanderson	1978-1981	4	38	28	3.10	88	8	577.7	528	199	47	162	390	115

Player	From/To	Yrs	W	L	ERA	GS	SHO	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA+
Marichal	1963-1975	13	206	119	2.79	383	45	2978	2678	924	257	543	1968	125
Sanderson	1982-1996	15	125	115	4.06	319	6	1984	2062	894	250	463	1221	98

Next, Marichal’s and Sanderson’s age 25 season actual stats, because in 2011 J.J. will be the same age:

Marichal

Year	Age	Tm	W	L	ERA	GS	SHO	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	ERA+	WHIP	H/9	SO/9	SO/BB
1963	25	SFG	25	8	2.41	40	5	321.1	259	27	61	248	133	0.996	7.3	6.9	4.07

Sanderson

Year	Age	Tm	W	L	ERA	GS	SHO	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	ERA+	WHIP	H/9	SO/9	SO/BB
1982	25	MON	12	12	3.46	32	0	224	212	24	58	158	106	1.205	8.5	6.3	2.72

Analysis: The comparisons are fascinating. Through age 24 J.J. has the best ERA+, yet Scott is better in that same category than Juan. Likewise, J.J. has given up the least HR and is tied for most Ks. At this point J.J. could be either one and Sanderson was a better pitcher than Marichal early on. When we look at the rest of the other 2 hurlers’ careers some things stand out. Juan was clearly the best. ERA, ERA+, IP, Ks, and Wins are where he easily separates himself from Scott and hammers down Hall Of Fame type production. And how about Juan’s 45 shutouts over the remainder of his career? Not bad. Lastly, the 25 year old seasons also tell us something. Scott is a .500 pitcher, while Juan earns as many wins as his number of birthdays. We think J.J. is a season behind these 2 due to injuries and surgery last season, so we feel his break-out season will be in 2012, not 2011, but he will still be a fine starting pitcher this season. J.J. in 2012 could be either of the other 2, but this season shall give us a nod in which direction- HOF candidate or a little better than a .500 hurler.

2011 Projection:

Name	Team		$	W$	S$	ERA$	WHIP$	K$	Pos$	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	IP
Jair Jurrjens	ATL	SP	8	2	-1	1	0	1	5	11	0	3.47	1.27	129	166

{6-4-3 Assists to Last Player Picked and Baseball-Reference.}

Randy Foye Is Clutch

Randy Foye is playing the best basketball of his life and is turning into a multi category fantasy basketball machine.

Analysis: Foye is averaging 20.8 PPG and 5.6 APG over his last five games. He’s got a lot of other things going for him as well. He’s got point guard and shooting guard position eligibility and he’s a career 86% free throw shooter. Although Eric Gordon will be coming back from injury soon he won’t be back to full strength for awhile and there is no way Foye won’t be getting at least 30 minutes a game when he does return. Foye is hitting just over one three per game for the year and has six multi steal games in his last ten contests. Randy Foye is doing it all from the PG/SG position and the fact that he’s available in seventy percent of fantasy leagues- what’s not to like?

Projection: Regardless of Eric Gordon’s return, Randy Foye will be getting tons of minutes. He’s averaging over 35 minutes a game over the last two weeks and no one can argue with his productivity. Expect 14-17 PPG, 5 APG, 1 3PM and 1 SPG the rest of the way for the Clippers.