Category: Player News

Main player news sub category

Kelly Johnson, J.J. Hardy, Conor Jackson: Power Trends?

All 3 were originally drafted in the 1st or 2nd round and made their MLB Debuts in 2005. All have battled injuries and illness, plus each has had a uniform change. Power-wise what can we expect in 2011?

Facts:

Johnson
Year Age PA HR% SO% BB% AB/HR HR/FB
2009 27 346 0.023 0.156 0.093 37.9 0.061
2010 28 671 0.039 0.221 0.118 22.5 0.107
Career 6 Yrs 2573 0.028 0.20 0.11 31.6 0.078
Hardy
2009 26 465 0.024 0.183 0.093 37.6 0.071
2010 27 375 0.016 0.144 0.075 56.7 0.047
Career 6 Yrs 2673 0.03 0.143 0.081 29.8 0.086
Jackson
2009 27 110 0.009 0.146 0.1 99 0.024
2010 28 241 0.008 0.112 0.129 104 0.021
Career 6 Yrs 2095 0.022 0.114 0.105 39 0.055
MLB Avg 6 Yrs 0.027 0.174 0.085 33.4 0.076

 

HR Park Factor (Handed) Home Park Change From To
Johnson (LH) 2009 95 114
Jackson (RH) 2010 102 77
Hardy (RH) 2011 103 126

 

Analysis: Kelly Johnson is the only one to have above league average power since 2008. His 2010 season looks out of place until you consider that he was healthy and got a nice bump Park Factor wise. Park HR factors indicate Johnson went from 5% below league average to 14% above in the switch last season from Atlanta to Arizona. Note a Park Factor of 100 = league average. Hardy’s HR/AB has been all over the place, but Baltimore’s park should be just what Hardy needs, if healthy, going from 3% above league average to 26%. Hardy did show nice power at shortstop back in 2007 and 2008, with 26 and 24 HR. On the other hand, HR have never been a big part of Jackson’s game and it’s a good thing, as Oakland depresses the HR rate to 77% of league average. Only Johnson was above the league slugging average in 2010. Both Hardy and Johnson are starters in 2010, while watch Jackson’s Spring training for signs of renewed strength, though Oakland has both a crowded starting lineup with veterans and a bench crowded with veterans and prospects alike. Making the team may be the best Jackson can do at this point in his career, but watch for signs of the skills he displayed before injuries took their toll. Remember power wasn’t really there to begin with, though he was still quite young before his career was interrupted.

Projections:

Name Team Pos $ AVG$ R$ RBI$ HR$ SB$ Pos$ AVG R RBI HR SB H AB
J.J. Hardy BAL SS 10 1 0 -1 1 -2 11 0.272 66 61 18 2 130 477
Kelly Johnson ARI 2B 20 1 3 1 1 1 11 0.275 96 77 20 12 162 588
Conor Jackson OAK 1B -2 -2 -4 -4 -3 -1 10 0.245 40 37 6 6 75 307

{6-4-3 Assists to Last Player Picked, StatsCorner, and Baseball-Reference}

Stolen Bases Breakdown

Issue: 30 hitters have 70 or more stolen bases over the last 4 seasons. We have the usual suspects stereotyped as mostly one-trick ponies with a couple of multiple category contributors thrown into the mix, but are there some wrinkles and surprises here?

Facts: 2007 to 2010

# R A N K
Player SB PA R HR RBI BA SB BA RBI HR PA
Juan Pierre 202 2294 293 2 147 .288 1 9 22 30 18
Carl Crawford 182 2433 368 53 295 .302 2 4 7 14 13
Jose Reyes 175 2297 333 41 194 .286 3 11 17 16 17
Michael Bourn 172 1930 267 11 108 .263 4 26 27 25 22
Chone Figgins 159 2454 329 10 169 .289 5 6 19 26 12
B.J. Upton 150 2424 339 62 266 .261 6 28 11 11 14
Ichiro Suzuki 148 2895 376 29 199 .332 7 1 16 17 1
Hanley Ramirez 145 2670 443 107 330 .319 8 2 3 1 4
Rajai Davis 142 1438 193 12 128 .283 9 13 24 24 26
Jacoby Ellsbury 136 1510 222 20 130 .291 10 5 22 20 25
Jimmy Rollins 136 2522 363 70 271 .270 11 23 9 10 8
Brian Roberts 132 2398 348 41 208 .288 12 9 15 15 15
Shane Victorino 132 2479 366 54 235 .281 13 19 14 13 10
Willy Taveras 127 1420 191 4 69 .266 14 26 30 29 27
Alexis Rios 107 2647 357 77 323 .281 15 19 5 7 5
Bobby Abreu 101 2717 407 71 382 .282 16 14 2 9 3
Matt Kemp 98 2303 319 82 308 .288 17 7 6 6 16
Brandon Phillips 96 2642 365 89 329 .275 18 21 4 4 6
David Wright 95 2734 403 102 406 .304 19 3 1 2 2
Ian Kinsler 95 2249 372 78 263 .279 20 20 12 5 19
Coco Crisp 93 1543 221 24 153 .269 21 22 21 19 24
Nyjer Morgan 92 1403 175 4 77 .283 22 13 29 28 29
Ryan Theriot 91 2575 318 13 166 .282 23 17 20 23 7
Scott Podsednik 89 1598 190 16 125 .287 24 11 25 22 23
Grady Sizemore 88 2136 307 75 245 .262 25 27 13 8 21
Brett Gardner 86 994 163 8 86 .268 26 24 28 27 30
Jason Bartlett 84 2163 284 24 193 .282 27 16 18 18 20
Chris Young 80 2488 318 96 286 .241 28 30 8 3 9
Johnny Damon 79 2467 376 61 267 .282 29 15 10 12 11
Carlos Gomez 77 1420 182 17 123 .246 30 29 26 21 28

 

Analysis: Juan Pierre is in the 7th in BA. Carl Crawford’s counting categories are as strong as Ellsbury’s are weak, yet Ellsbury’s 5th ranked BA seems a waste in the 9th hole in Fenway in 2011. Chone Figgins is 6th in BA. B.J. Upton’s BA is where I thought it would be, but his rankings in HR, RBI, and PA should easily be in the top 7 or 8. However, they’re not. Ichiro is barely out of the top half in HR and RBI, despite his swing, his home park, and always batting leadoff. No surprise, but I’ve got to shout it anyway–Hanley is a stud! Rollins puts up top 11 or better counting stats, but only 6 of these guys still in The Show are worse in BA. Despite his lost time due to injuries Roberts is in the top half in every category. Victorino is no slouch either. Willy Taveras…Willy Taveras, are you kidding me? Rios’ BA is stronger than I remembered and those counting stats are very good. I’d be in love with Bobby Abreu if he was a little younger or the Angels a lot better; his BA is in the top half and only Wright has more RBI. Despite his woes last season Kemp’s BA is 7th. Matt didn’t play full time until 2008. As a 5 category contributor in the past, his upside looks very good with Donnie Baseball Mattingly. Only Brandon Phillips’ BA limits his  stellar value. Is Sizemore’s BA really that low? Only 3 of the 30 had lower batting averages, but after all that missed playing time he made the list. Gardner indeed is a one trick pony thus far. Bartlett has been a steady contributor, except last season. If you can take the big hit on BA, Chris Young is the Man. Damon still made the list? Yes, and with respectful counting stats. Will the Wizard Maddon chance a few more attempts at The Trop? Maybe…

Projections:

SB Threat AVG R RBI HR SB AB
Carl Crawford 0.292 101 81 16 47 635
Ian Kinsler 0.274 91 68 18 23 525
Ichiro Suzuki 0.306 81 46 9 34 665
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.277 83 51 8 50 559
Brett Gardner 0.269 95 55 7 44 530
Alexis Rios 0.269 77 76 17 28 581
Bobby Abreu 0.266 82 80 16 22 547
Juan Pierre 0.274 81 48 3 51 598
B.J. Upton 0.249 86 64 14 41 570
Rajai Davis 0.277 66 51 6 43 483
Brian Roberts 0.273 83 57 11 27 558
Chone Figgins 0.268 81 43 4 37 590
Grady Sizemore 0.25 75 67 18 20 509
Johnny Damon 0.267 80 59 14 14 512
Coco Crisp 0.262 70 51 11 31 458
Rajai Davis 0.277 66 51 6 43 483
Scott Podsednik 0.282 39 30 4 17 320
Hanley Ramirez 0.306 102 85 25 31 591
David Wright 0.288 92 96 23 21 601
Matt Kemp 0.276 89 88 24 27 612
Jose Reyes 0.282 89 62 13 36 609
Brandon Phillips 0.267 89 79 19 21 635
Michael Bourn 0.261 88 43 5 52 606
Shane Victorino 0.271 87 62 14 28 579
Chris Young 0.244 81 76 21 19 579
Jimmy Rollins 0.248 73 60 14 28 543
Jason Bartlett 0.276 74 55 8 20 517
Nyjer Morgan 0.27 66 35 3 32 496
Ryan Theriot 0.275 68 38 4 18 532
Carlos Gomez 0.252 62 43 7 22 446

 

{6-4-3 Assists to Baseball-Reference, Last Player Picked, Marcel.}

 

The Polish Hammer, Marcin Gortat

Marcin Gortat is finally getting some minutes while playing with a great point guard in Steve Nash, but will he keep up his recent production?

Analysis: Gortat was a great backup for Dwight Howard in Orlando, but he was never given the chance to shine there. Not surprising considering he was playing behind the best center in the game today. Recently he has been on quite a tear with his new big minute role on the Sun’s roster. In his last game against the Raptors Gortat brought down 11 boards, 17 points, and 1 block while only missing two shots and playing 34 minutes. Gortat is averaging 10 more minutes with the Suns and I think this number is only going to increase. Gortat runs a great pick and roll with Nash and actually has great finish around the rim. As he and Nash get more and more comfortable Gortat will become a must have player in every league. I don’t think we should expect Nash to turn him into the next Amar’e Stoudemire, but he can certainly put up some stats.

Projection: Playing with Nash and getting more minutes than ever before has Gortat in his happy place, and I only see his production getting better. The one disappointing feature has been Gortat’s lack of blocks. He is averaging 10 more minutes but his blocks have only gone up .2 per game. This hurts his fantasy value, but I expect his blocks to go up the more familiar he gets with the Phoenix system.

Thaddeus Young Is Heating Up

Thaddeus Young went 12-15 from the floor for 24 points Friday night against the Pistons. Available in over fifty percent of leagues nationwide he just may be what you’re looking for if you need points and steals.

Analysis: Does five consecutive 18 plus point games interest you? It should and he’s doing more than just scoring. Young has averaged five rebounds and one steal per game in that same five game span as well as shooting over 65 percent from the field. This is the time of year in the fantasy world where you have to ride the hot hands to a championship and Thaddeus Young may help you get there. He doesn’t contribute much in the three department but he’s shooting 73% from the stripe and his minutes are just under thirty a game. Young needs to be on the floor for the Sixers if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive and Young should be hitting the thirty minute per game mark from here on out.

Projection: Expect 15-19 PPG, 5 RPG, more than 1 SPG and solid field goal and free throw percentages the rest of the year.

What is Happening with Deron Williams?

The Jerry Sloan situation was pretty messed up but never in my wildest dreams think that Utah would trade away their star player.

Analysis: Deron has been one of the top point guards in the league this season, putting up his best number yet. Before the trade Deron was averaging over 21 points and almost 10 assists a game. Throw in his respectable shooting percentages for a point guard and Deron is easily a top 10 fantasy player in this league. New Jersey does not have the talent on its roster that Utah had and I expect this to impact Deron in a few different ways. I expect Deron will improve his scoring, because he no longer has Andrei Kirilenko, Paul Millsap, and Al Jefferson on his team to pass to, and will thus take more of his own shots. I don’t think his assists will drop that significantly either, mostly because of Brook Lopez. While Lopez’s rebounding has fallen off the map his scoring has gone up a little more and I expect it to climb even further with Deron dishing out assists. I still don’t know why Utah gave up such a star player when he still had 2 years left on his contract, but the Sloan situation and the trade suggest that perhaps something is amiss with the great point guard.

Projection: I think as the season progresses we’ll hear more about the Deron/Sloan situation and I don’t think it will shine a nice light on Deron. However he will continue to put up the stats he always has, and with his ability to stay on the court, owners of Deron Williams have nothing to fear.