Player News – Page 132 – FantasySP Blog

SPLITS: John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Scott Baker, Bronson Arroyo, Javier Vazquez

Issue: Over the last 3 seasons 29 pitchers have won 36 games or more. Only 5 had cumulative ERAs over 4.00: John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Scott Baker, Bronson Arroyo, Javier Vazquez. Which ones should we pursue in 2011?

Facts: Arroyo is the only one to have a credible 2010, so he got a 3 year $15 million contract extension, but it was a busy off-season for all 5. Following his first season at Fenway Park Lackey lost 15 pounds, while Vazquez has fled the Bronx for south Florida in 2011. Santana has added a split-finger fastball; Baker had surgery. Let’s go back and look at 2010.

Analysis:

Lackey
Split	W	L	ERA	IP	HR	WHIP	SO/9	SO/BB
1st Half	9	5	4.78	113	10	1.602	5.4	1.48
2nd Half	5	6	3.97	102	8	1.216	7.8	3.3

Santana
1st Half	8	7	3.76	122	15	1.303	7.4	2.78
2nd Half	9	3	4.11	100.2	12	1.341	6.2	1.86

Baker
1st Half	7	8	4.87	109	17	1.312	7.8	5
2nd Half	5	1	3.82	61.1	6	1.402	7.8	2.21

Arroyo
1st Half	9	4	4.04	120.1	13	1.23	4.3	1.41
2nd Half	8	6	3.68	95.1	16	1.038	5.9	3.5

Vazquez
1st Half	7	7	4.45	95	15	1.221	7.6	2.11
2nd Half	3	3	6.64	62.1	17	1.668	5.9	1.52

2011 Projections:

Hurler	W	ERA	WHIP	K	IP
Lackey	12	4.09	1.35	135	181

Santana	12	3.99	1.30	139	174

Baker	11	4.15	1.27	139	169

Arroyo	13	3.98	1.26	122	190

Vazquez	10	4.27	1.27	141	161

{6-4-3 Assists to Baseball-Reference and Marcel}

Adrian Beltre Shelved With Grade 1 Strain

The Rangers’ $96 million dollar man is expected to miss up to two weeks of Cactus League games with a strained right calf muscle.

Analysis: Injured before he reported to Arizona, Beltre’s MRI on Thursday revealed a mild strain. This certainly does not sound serious, as nothing was torn and test results revealed no other issues in the calf area. The team has already stated that Beltre’s Opening Day status should not be affected by this minor setback, and it appears that this is simply a case of being overcautious with a very expensive commodity. Adrian has never missed time with a calf issue in the past, so there is no worry here about a chronic or recurring injury.

Projection: When it comes to a player with Beltre’s prowess on both sides of the ball, any type of injury can put a scare into Fantasy owners. There is minimal reason for fear this time, though, as Adrian should get back to baseball activities by the end of next week and will hopefully see some game action by March 11 or earlier. Although he has a brief history of putting up huge numbers in contract years (see 2004 and 2010) and then disappointing thereafter, I do believe his lean seasons in Seattle are permanently in the rear view mirror. Beltre’s 2010 All-Star campaign was not an aberration, and being surrounded by the likes of Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz should serve him well. Some skeptics have attributed his impressive figures last year to playing in Fenway, but the fact is he was actually better on the road in every relevant category. Beltre may not reach a .321 batting average again, but you can still count on him for 25-30 home runs, 38-45 doubles, and between 85-95 runs batted in.

Jonathan Sanchez Is Not A SP2 Or SP3

Many sites have distorted projections of Jonathan Sanchez due to his extremely low ERA last year.

Analysis: Jonathan Sanchez may be a strikeout machine but he was one lucky guy last year. He had a 79.5 LOB%, fourth best among qualified pitchers in 2010 and over seven percent above his career average. His 2010 FIP of 4.00 was nearly identical to his career average of 4.08. However, his ERA last year was 3.07 making his ERA minus FIP -.93, which means he was the fifth luckiest pitcher in baseball last year. His career ERA is over 4.2! Also take into consideration his BABIP against was .252 last year, thirty-seven points below his career average. There is no possible way Sanchez can sustain these numbers and finish as the twenty-second best pitcher in roto formats like he did last year.

Projection: Sanchez will go long before he should in most drafts and that means you won’t get the chance to pick him up but that’s fine because he’ll only give you 13 Wins, 3.80 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 200 K’s… solid SP4 numbers if you ask me.

What to Expect From Domonic Brown

Ranked fourth on Baseball America’s latest Top 100 Prospects list, Brown is fighting to become Philadelphia’s starting right fielder on Opening Day.

Analysis: A hidden gem not selected until the 20th round in 2006, the 23-year old Brown has rapidly ascended through the Phillies system over the last few years, making his Major League debut this past summer. The youngster scuffled a bit over 35 games in the bigs, to the tune of .210/.257/.355 in 70 plate appearances. During this cup of coffee, however, Brown displayed flashes of brilliance including an RBI double in his first at-bat. A true five-tool player, Domonic’s potential emergence has softened the blow of losing Jayson Werth to free agency. Currently in competition with both John Mayberry Jr. and Ben Francisco for the starting right field job, Brown appears to have the upper hand in manager Charlie Manuel’s eyes. Although Manuel has stated that the position if “up for grabs” he plans to play the phenom a lot this spring, getting him as many at-bats as possible. This stance says a lot about the team’s immediate plans for Brown, and they are giving him every chance possible to work his way onto that April 1st lineup card.

Projection: Unless he has a terrible showing in the Grapefruit League, expect to see Brown patrolling right field at Citizens Bank Park when that first pitch is thrown against the Astros. The Philly brass wants him there, and so does young Domonic who seems to have the right mindset about winning the job. Surrounded by a monster (albeit lefty heavy) lineup, Brown should thrive in the cozy confines of the Phillies home park. Look for something in the .280/.350/.490 area over a full season, with 20-25 stolen bases to boot.

Matt Kemp or Carlos Pena: Pick 1 Keeper

You have notable bounce back candidates Kemp and Pena competing for your last Freeze Roster slot. Toting up their profits is simple arithmetic, right?

Facts: Pena has steadily dropped from .287/46 HR in 2007 to .196/28 HR last season at age 32. Hamstring and foot injuries obviously contributed to his 2010 decline. His career has seen injuries to 6 other body parts: hand (2), knee (2), and once each- groin, head, thigh, and eye. Weigh those with a change of scenery to the NL Central and Cubbies. Kemp dropped off last season from .297/34 SB/89 RBI to .249/19 SB/89 RBI. His fans only wish it was physical, yet Rihanna, Torre, and Bowa are no longer in the picture, while MLB’s Hoosier response to the NBA’s Larry Bird is a continuing and nurturing presence in Chavez Ravine.

Analysis: You have a simple pre-Freeze profit in each of $5, so it’s a toss up. Right? Well, lets look a little closer. Back of the envelope calculations on your league’s suspected keepers shows a 30% inflation rate at your Auction. Typically, the Roto keeper league inflation rate averages 13%, but we’ve occasionally seen it well beyond 30%. Now what?

Kemp/Pena

$30/$10 Salary

$35/$15 Projected 2011 Value

$5/$5 Pre-Freeze Profit

$23/ $8 Strong Dollar Freeze Salary

$12/$7 Freeze Profit at Weak Dollar Auction

Note: Divide present salary by inflation rate to covert strong Freeze dollars to weak inflated Auction dollars ($30 divided by 130% = $23.)

Kemp is easily the better keeper.

Projections:

Kemp .276/89 R/88 RBI/24 HR/27 SB/612 AB

Pena .220/73 R/87 RBI/29 HR/4 SB/494 AB

{6-4-3 Assist to Marcel}