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Brandon Roy is Playing Without Knees

Brandon Roy returned to the Trail Blazers’ lineup last night and the question now is, what to do with him?

Analysis: If you were unfortunate enough to pick up Roy in this horrible injury plagued season then I really feel for you. He normally puts up reasonable fantasy numbers and doesn’t hurt you in any particular category. In the previous two years Roy has averaged over 20 points per game, 4 boards, and 4 assists, while not hurting you with his percentages. This year has not been good at all, as losing his knees has obviously affected his performance. He is shooting less than 40% on the season, which is horrible even among high shooting guards.To top it off last night’s game was only his 24th appearance of the season, making him less injured than Greg Oden, but not many other players. You can’t ever doubt Roy’s heart, because boy does he play with a lot of passion, but was he really ready to come back? Something seems to be amiss with the Portland training staff, because they just can’t seem to keep their key guys healthy. With their injury history they should attempt to steal the Phoenix Suns training staff who keep an elderly Steve Nash going strong. Brandon Roy is only 26 years old, so hopefully we haven’t seen the last of him, but knees play some importance in this game of basketball.

Projection: Portland has been doing just fine with LaMarcus Aldridge becoming their new go to guy, and I’m not sure why they rushed Roy back. If you can convince one of your league mates to trade for Roy, then do it, but otherwise in most leagues a waiver wire pickup is a better option right now. Roy’s knees aren’t getting any better and besides there will be even less touches going around for Portland with Gerald Wallace joining the club.

Good or Bad Move for Carmelo Anthony?

Carmelo Anthony was traded on Tuesday from Denver to his dream destination of New York City. Will his fantasy stats improve, worsen, or stay somewhat similar?

Analysis: While Carmelo has always been a solid fantasy pickup he has never been a fantasy darling. There is a chance that he will love the New York City spotlight and strive under it. Anthony is known as one of the best scorers in the NBA. Equally important is his reputation as one of the game’s greatest closers. Even Kobe-clutch-blasting Henry Abbott agrees that Carmelo is one of the most clutch scorers in the NBA. When the game is on the line there is nobody better than Carmelo to take that last shot. I believe he takes this skill and runs with it in NYC. Who wouldn’t enjoy bringing back one of the best basketball cities to its former glory days. In his first game with the Knicks Carmelo put up some great numbers with 27 points, 10 boards, and 2 steals. He only shot 40% from the floor and doled out a paltry 1 assist, but he helped the Knicks win the game by, you guessed it, hitting some clutch shots.

Projection: Carmelo now has one of his most talented teammates ever in Amar’e Stoudemire and I believe this will result in improved points, three-pointers, and assists for the remainder of the season. Amar’e demands a double team and when that happens we know who will be open for the three. Expect minor improvements across the board for Carmelo due to this change of scenery.

Ubaldo Jimenez and Josh Johnson: Solid Buy or Bargain?

Jimenez earned $29 in 2010 and $24 in 2009, while Johnson earned $24 both seasons. Ubaldo threw the Rockies first no-hitter last April and had 15 wins at the Break, while Josh had the lowest NL ERA.

Analysis: Ubaldo is being punished in auctions for 3 cardinal sins- not winning 30 or even 20 games last season; not giving up a normal number of HR; and not breaking down despite suspected pitcher abuse, i.e. 27 games between 100 and 119 pitches, plus another 9 over 119. Jimenez missed 10 days in 2010 and 7 in 2009. On the other hand, Johnson was shut down near the end of the 2010 season for being weary; he had Tommy John Surgery in 2008. Lets look at the two halves of the 2010 season.

Hurler W IP HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
A  <ASG 15 127 6 46 113 2.20 1.05 .198
A  >ASG 4 94.2 4 46 101 3.80 1.30 .223
B <ASG 9 122 4 28 123 1.70 0.96 .203
B >ASG 2 61.2 3 20 63 3.50 1.39 .276

A is Ubaldo; B is Josh. ASG = All Star Game. In the recent CBS Sports Expert Auction Ubaldo was hammered down for $20 and Josh for $25.

Projections:
Jimenez 20 W, 222 IP, 200 K, 3.45 ERA, and 1.21 WHIP.
Johnson 15 W, 203 IP, 201 K, 3.38 ERA, and 1.25 WHIP.
Why pay 25% more for Johnson?

Last Call On Kovalev

Right Winger Alexei Kovalev was dealt to the Pittsburgh Penguins today boosting his value and making him not so under the radar anymore. Kovalev is available in about forty percent of fantasy leagues nationwide so now is the time to pick him up.

Analysis: Remember, Kovalev is still playing for a new contract and now that he’ll be playing for the Pens his plus/minus rating will certainly become an asset to fantasy owners. He’s been on fire lately with 6 goals, 3 assists, about 17 minutes of ice time and is a plus 3 in his last ten games. His move to the Pens will certainly help their fifteenth ranked power play. Also, the Pens have what Ottawa does not, better forwards to play with in Jordan Staal or Tyler Kennedy at center and Matt Cooke or newly acquired James Neal at left wing. If you’re lucky Sidney Crosby may come back to center the Russian sniper.

Projection: This is a great trade for Kovalev’s value. He’s motivated, he’s on a playoff caliber squad and his plus/minus won’t be suspect anymore playing on a solid team with Marc-Andre Fleury in net. Five to ten goals and over eighteen minutes of ice time with a handful of power play points is what you’ll get from Kovalev as he’ll try to push the Pens into the fourth seed in the east.

Elvis Andrus Lite – Alexi Casilla Bargain

Andrus is hot and expensive: $27 in the recent CBS Sports Experts Auction and Round 6 in the KFFL Experts Draft. Casilla is cool, but only in the temperature sense, a post hype, post injury sleeper: $5 and Round 27 in the same Expert Auction and Draft. Both will be starting shortstops in 2011.
Analysis: Casilla has been cowed since his MLB debut in 2006 (age 21), garnering only 557 PA in 5 seasons due to immaturity and injuries. He’ll be 26 with MLB experience growth wise, so lets focus on the injury aspect. Alexi missed 50 days last season and 22 days in 2008. Career wise he’s had injuries to 6 different body parts: hand (3), low back (2), and only once- foot, hip, elbow, and ankle.
PA R HR RBI SB BA OBP Earned
A 674 88 0 35 32 .265 .342 $16
B 557 65 8 50 18 .249 .336 n/a
A is actual 2010 for Elvis. B is an attempt to condense Alexi’s career into a single season’s worth of stats. (6-4-3 Assist to Baseball-Reference’s 162 Game Average)
Projection: 574 PA, 70 R, 10 HR, 60 RBI, 32 SB, .275 BA, .355 OBP, $20 Earned.