Player News – Page 71 – FantasySP Blog

Buying Low- AJ Burnett

AJ Burnett has a 6.08 ERA this year and allowed twelve earned runs against the Cardinals last week. So… why am I buying AJ Burnett?

Analysis: AJ Burnett has only made four starts this year and we all know about the twelve earned run game. But, what you may not know is that in Burnett’s other threes games he’s only allowed four runs in 21.0 innings for a 1.71 ERA in those starts. AJ Burnett has pitched three remarkable games this year in four starts, period.

Burnett’s K/9 rate is 10.27, a career high thus far but it is only four games into the season. Remember, he’s back pitching in the Natioanl League and he doesn’t have to face the Rays, BoSox or that Toronto lineup on a daily basis anymore. His fastball, curve and change are all at the same velocity as in year’s past, so no need to worry about his stuff. The 6.08 ERA might scare some away but he has been pitching well. Burnett is owned in less than ten percent of fantasy leagues and now is the time to buy the veteran at the lowest his value can possibly be. If you are buying stock right now you have to be looking at AJ or at the very least Edinson Volquez.

Draft Impact- Justin Blackmon

The Jacksonville Jaguars traded up to get Oklahoma State wide out Justin Blackmon with the fifth pick of the 2012 NFL Draft.

Analysis: Here we have another rookie in Blackmon who finds himself in an awful situation. We don’t need to look any further than the futility of Jacksonville quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert finished the 2011 season playing in fifteen NFL games with a 50.8 completion percentage, thirty-second “best” in the NFL and one spot above Tim Tebow in last place. Gabbert finished thirty-third in yards per passing attempt, just behind Colt McCoy, Christian Ponder and Curtis Painter. Gabbert also finished thirty-third in the NFL last year with a passer rating of 65.4. Considering only thirty-three quarterbacks in the NFL in 2011 qualified to have a passer rating… Gabbert finished last or next to last in some very important quarterback statistics.

As talented as Justin Blackmon is, he will only go as far as Blaine Gabbert will allow him to go. At the moment, Blackmon is the thirty-third wide out being taken in twelve team format mock drafts. Other wide outs being taken at or near his average draft position include Brandon Lloyd, Eric Decker, Torrey Smith and Mike Williams(TB). Lloyd has Brady in a pass happy offense, Decker seems to be Manning’s new best friend, Torrey Smith is a burner with seven touchdowns as a rookie and Williams is a low risk sleeper at his ADP this year. Justin Blackmon will not outperform the wide outs at his ADP because Blaine Gabbert isn’t even on Mark Sanchez’s level.

Draft Impact- RG3 A QB1?

Robert Griffin III on average is the 12th quarterback being taken in mock drafts at the moment. In some leagues this would put RG3 into QB1 status.

Analysis: While he has all the tools to succeed, it is just too difficult to expect a rookie quarterback on the Redskins to instantly become a fantasy football QB1. You have to approach drafting RG3 knowing that another borderline QB1/QB2 will be needed in case the Skins implode. Matt Schaub or Jay Cutler coming off of an injury would be great under the radar options to pair with RG3. You could stream two later round quarterbacks and have a beefed up running back/wide out situation or perhaps an elite tight end. Regardless, a healthy Schaub or Cutler with Brandon Marshall will be solid options to pair with the rookie.

While I cannot endorse RG3 as a QB1 yet, the return of franchise tagged tight end Fred Davis will be huge. Davis surpassed the eighty yard mark six times in twelve games last year. Davis also finished eighth among tight ends with 796 receiving yards in just those twelve games. With Pierre Garcon now in the mix in Washington along with Leonard Hankerson, Santana Moss and Anthony Armstrong, the Skins do have some solid weapons for Griffin. RG3 really needs to run for over 600 yards to put up QB1 numbers this year which he did three times during his college career.

Losing Faith In Maybin?

Cameron Maybin is being dropped in nearly twenty percent of fantasy baseball leagues for no other reason than impatience.

Analysis: I can see why a .200 batting average could scare some owners but I cannot see why some are losing faith in Cameron Maybin. Despite the awful average Maybin has stolen eight bases, fifth best on all of baseball. Considering he had forty steals and nine homers last year we all need a little patience in his case. Maybin is only a career .250 hitter with a 25% strikeout rate, so there will be plenty of ups and downs during the season for the former Marlin and Tiger.

Cameron Maybin may not be hitting particularly well but he is getting on base as of late. Maybin has drawn five walks in his last four games. For an outfielder with a career 8.2% walk rate you have to love that he is still finding a way to get on base. I still expect numbers similar to last year’s line- .264 BA, 40 SB, 9 HR, 82 R, 40 RBI. He has some power but hitting in Petco isn’t exactly like hitting at Coors Field. Be patient and have some faith in the twenty-five year old, he is still incredibly raw.

Draft Impact- Trent Richardson

Trent Richardson is the best running back to come out of college since Darren McFadden. “Experts” have been feeding the hype machine calling this kid the best back since Adrian Peterson.

Analysis: As much as I love Trent Richardson, he just did not end up in the right situation. First off, take a look at the AFC North defenses. The Ravens, Steelers and Bengals all finished in the top ten in the NFL in rushing yards against per game last year. All three divisional rivals also finished in the top ten in the NFL in yards per carry against. Richardson found himself in the worst possible division to rush the ball, plain and simple. To compound the situation the Cleveland quarterback situation is not solid. Any novice can see that you stack the box against the Browns now and make them beat you in the air.

All these negatives don’t mean he won’t have an offensive rookie of the year campaign but don’t go expecting RB1 type numbers. He will be drafted by some impressionable fantasy owner as a RB1 which means he should not be on your fantasy team this year. The real winner here is Cleveland wide out Greg Little. Little amassed over 700 receiving yards in his rookie year. With all the attention Richardson will receive Little could make a run at 1,000 receiving yards in 2012 if he can limit his drops.