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Deep League Help- Pedro Alvarez

Pedro Alvarez is hitting just .203 this year but his recent success should come as no surprise.

Analysis: Pedro Alvarez possesses elite power and he is finally starting to show signs of it. Alvarez has hit four home runs in his last ten games. Throw in the eight hits he has amassed over his last six games and you have yourself a very hot third baseman. Having depth at the third base position in fantasy baseball is always a huge plus so picking up Alvarez in deeper leagues just makes sense. Alvarez is available in well over ninety percent of leagues across the country.

Keep in mind that Alvarez does not hit lefties well, he has a .211 batting average against them for his career with a .329 slugging percentage. While he may not even hit .250 this year his home run and RBI potential make him a great sleeper at this point in the season. As always you can sell him high down the road or chuck him if he starts striking out more than Mark Reynolds. With Ryan Zimmerman out for now and his health issues in the past it does make sense to stockpile depth at third base.

Last Call On Mike Trout

Mike Trout is back in the big leagues once again and hopefully he can make it stick this time.

Analysis: Mike Trout is two games into his return to the Angels and his situation still is not entirely clear. He has been leading off but will likely split some time with Peter Bourjos and Vernon Wells. On the negative side of things, Trout did only hit .220 last year in 123 at-bats. However, the kid is still just twenty years old. He is an extremely toolsy outfielder and a 20 HR/40 SB season from him is only a few years away. Trout is just too good for the minors at this point in his career. In Double-A last year Trout hit .326 with 33 stolen bases and 11 home runs in just ninety-one games. This year in Triple-A Trout has posted a .403 batting average with six swipes.

Mike Trout is already owned in about half of fantasy leagues and his stock is rising. He does make a fine sell high candidate here especially if he cannot lower his strikeout rate. Keep in mind that there still is the possibility of limited playing time in his case.

Draft Impact- Andrew Luck

Rookie quarterbacks who come into the league and have instant success almost always have a solid running game and defense to lean on. In 2011 the Colts finished 26th in total rushing yards and 25th in total defense.

Analysis: Maybe I’m the only one who isn’t on the Andrew Luck bandwagon but I just can’t see it. The Pac-12 is just an awful defensive conference. On top of that, Stanford had an awesome offensive line and a great running game(20th in nation). Take Luck’s three biggest games last year(Oregon, USC, OkSt), he threw four interceptions and only ran for twenty yards on eighteen carries.

Let’s face it, the Colts have tons of issues aside from Jim Irsay’s unparelleled narcissism. Jacob Tamme is now in Denver and there is a reason Peyton didn’t want Dallas Clark and neither do the Colts… he’s a shell of his former self. Donald Brown has yet to run for 700 yards in a season and Delone Carter certainly is not the answer. The defense will not be helping Luck out either, they allowed 26.9 points per game, fifth worst in the NFL. As a result Luck will be throwing tons of second half picks playing catch up. Keep in mind that AFC South rivals the Jags, Texans and Titans all finished in the top eleven in points allowed in 2011(under 21 PPG). Expect one “unlucky” fantasy year for the “next” John Elway.

Selling High- Carlos Beltran

Carlos Beltran has been on fire in St. Louis this year but expect him to cool off sooner or later.

Analysis: We can start with Carlos Beltran’s health issues. He’s only played in over 90 games in a season just once(2011) in the last three years. Secondly, let’s take a look at his stolen base totals. Beltran has stolen a total of seven bases in 206 games over the past two years but he already has three in just sixteen games this year. All signs point to selling high here, his thirty-four year old legs just are not what they used to be and when he reaches the 300 career stolen base mark…. expect him to stop running. Beltran is also striking out at over a 20% clip this year, something he has never done in his career. Beltran’s HR/FB rate is nearly at 30% in 2012, his career average sits at 15%. So those five home runs he has thus far are indeed inflated just a bit.

The time to sell the aging outfielder is now. The .279 batting average, 5 home runs and 3 stolen bases are great but as the season wears on Beltran he will not be able to sustain his current level of play/luck.

Deep League Help- Carlos Gomez

Carlos Gomez is not playing every day for the Brewers but if he can keep up his solid play things will change.

Analysis: In just twenty-nine at-bats this year, Carlos Gomez has stolen five bases. But the big surprise here is the .345 batting average thus far. He isn’t a must add at the moment but in deeper leagues you just have to keep an eye on the twenty-six year old burner. The Brewers are deep in the outfield so his playing time will be limited but five stolen bases in twenty-nine at-bats is impressive regardless. If Carlos Gomez can keep hitting he will push Morgan and Aoki for at-bats. We also cannot forget that Corey Hart is never a lock to be healthy for a full big league season in right field either.

Gomez is owned in just one percent of fantasy leagues and it will be quite awhile before he catches anyone’s eye. For now Gomez remains seventh in all of baseball in stolen bases and is batting a solid .345. Perhaps the biggest indicator of his turnaround may be the one strikeout in those twenty-nine at-bats, absolutely great for a guy with a career 22.1 K%.