Player News – Page 70 – FantasySP Blog

Selling High- Jeremy Hellickson

Jeremy Hellickson is sporting a 2.77 ERA and a 4-0 record this year. So, why are we selling him?

Analysis: Jeremy Hellickson’s FIP is 4.78 this year while his ERA sits at 2.77. He actually leads the league in ERA minus FIP this year by quite a large margin. To further his seemingly good stat line is his left on base percentage of 88.1%, which is third in all of baseball. You cannot sustain an 88.1 LOB% over the course of a season. To put it in perspective, Roy Halladay’s career LOB% is 73.6 and it is 71.4% this year. Jeremy Hellickson is a solid pitcher with an excellent changeup, however, a sub 3.5 ERA is not going to happen this year.

It’s time to sell Hellickson as soon as possible. He isn’t a strikeout machine and his numbers will fall back down to earth sooner or later. Even his BABIP against is at .233 which is thirteenth best or luckiest(which ever you prefer) in baseball this year. Again, to put it in perspective, Roy Halladay’s career BABIP against is .292 and .280 this year. All signs point to selling and selling high here.

Buying Low- Yunel Escobar

With just a .254 batting average this season, Yunel Escobar is being dropped at an increased rate from fantasy squads across the country.

Analysis: Yunel Escobar is a player that you have to be patient with. He falls into long slumps but when he is on… he catches fire. At the moment he is hitting in front of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion who are both in the top ten in homers this year. The youngster Brett Lawrie will be back from suspension Monday to add yet another dangerous bat in the Toronto lineup to drive in Escobar. Teams have to pitch to Yunel and when he turns it around he will be one productive shortstop.

Thus far this year Escobar is hitting .26 points below his career BABIP of .312. When the balls start dropping his average will bounce back around to his career average of .287. Even though Escobar’s power numbers should be peaking he is finding other ways to be productive. Escobar’s twenty-three runs are sixth best among all big league shortstops. Yunel is widely available and his stock is falling right as his production will start to rise again.

Buying Low- Rickie Weeks

Rickie Weeks is batting just .154 thus far this year which means it is time to buy.

Analysis: Rickie Weeks did miss three starts over the past weekend due to a swollen hand/wrist. Putting the injury aside, a .154 batting average with just 7 RBI is not what anyone signed up for when drafting Weeks. There is some positive news to report though. Weeks’ BABIP is just .205, a full .100 points below his career average of .305. His strikeout rate is up a bit but he is actually walking four percent above his career average this year.

Weeks is being dropped in many fantasy leagues across the country purely out of impatience. Keep in mind that Rickie has averaged 25 HR, 10 SB with a .269 BA over the past two years at second base. Second base is not a deep fantasy position and adding Weeks at a low price is the intelligent play here.

Even looking at Weeks’ isloated power of .151 this year, it’s only .27 points below his career average. Rickie will be fine and he will finish with respectable numbers. Weeks will have considerable value in a few months and depth is always a good thing to have at the trade deadline.

Draft Impact- Michael Floyd

Michael Floyd is as polished as any wide out to come out of college in the last few years.

Analysis: Michael Floyd has the size, 6’3″, 220 pounds and the speed to be a productive fantasy wide out. He will benefit greatly from the attention Larry Fitzgerald will receive. At the moment Floyd is the thirty-eighth wide out being taken in fantasy mock drafts and that is a solid place for him. He should put up numbers very similar to Justin Blackmon this year especially if Kevin Kolb can play up to his potential in his second year in Arizona.

Where Floyd can really do some damage is in the red zone and with Larry Fitzgerald drawing double teams, Floyd should have some favorable matchups. Early Doucet and the Arizona tight ends do not have the athletic ability or the talent in the air that Floyd possesses. He will certainly be the number two option for the Cardinals in all situations in the upcoming 2012 season. Even with the return of running back Ryan Williams, Arizona’s two best athletes on offense remain Fitzgerald and Floyd. Expect WR3 type numbers at a surprisingly reasonable ADP from the rookie.

Last Call On Edinson Volquez

Edinson Volquez shut down the Phillies Saturday lasting 6.0 innings and only giving up one earned run.

Analysis: Edinson Volquez has only given up more than three earned runs in just one of his eight starts this year. His 2.79 ERA ranks twenty-third in the National League and his forty-three strikeouts is eleventh best in the National League as well. Yes, he is pitching at Petco Park but who cares… his fantasy owners love that fact. Volquez is available in well over sixty percent of fantasy leagues and he will be gone soon. He isn’t known for his consistency but he’s only had one bad outing in eight starts.

Volquez is walking slightly fewer batters this year but the biggest difference with his game has been the re-emergence of his changeup. Only a handful of big league pitchers have a better change than Volquez and it’s great to see him use it with dominance once again. Volquez isn’t just a “pick him up while he is hot” starter, he’s a legit lower tier starter pitching at Petco. It’s last call on Edinson Volquez.