NFL Draft Review: NFC North

 

The Minnesota Vikings surprised many by taking Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder with the 12th pick of the first round. Ponder has had trouble staying healthy and his arm strength has been questioned. The Vikes may still go the veteran route with Washington’s Donovan McNabb. There are plenty of weapons for the new Minnesota QB, and the Vikings added another taking Notre Dame tight end Kyle Rudolph in the 2nd round. Rudolph is an every down TE and has first round talent. Minnesota picked up a potential steal in the 6th round, selecting Arkansas offensive tackle DeMarcus Love. Eventually, Love could be a nice bookend with 2009 2nd round pick Phil Loadholt. The Vikings did not ignore the defensive side of things, taking Iowa tackle Christian Ballard, who could eventually start.

Four players in the Green Bay Packers 2011 class figure to contribute long-term. Mississippi State offensive tackle Derek Sherrod is a load and should fit right in on the right side sooner than later. Last year’s number one Bryan Bulaga would move over to the left tackle slot, setting the Pack up for the next decade. As if Aaron Rodgers needed any more weapons, add Kentucky’s Randall Cobb to the mix. Cobb figures in potential wildcat formations, in the slot and returning kicks. The Packers have added Hawaii running back Alex Green to the mix as they consider searching for the back. At 6’0″ 225 with breakaway top end speed, Green only needs to learn a traditional offense, coming from the Hawaii spread. Already possessing a pair of elite tight ends, Green Bay adds another in Arkansas’ D.J.Williams. Williams is more of an H-back and could contribute in-line, in the backfield or even spread wide.

The Detroit Lions may have picked up the steal of the draft landed Auburn defensive tackle Nick Fairley. The thought of him lining up next to Pro Bowl rookie Ndamukong Suh is downright scary. Detroit had a real need for a corner, but Fairley was just too much of a talent to pass up at number 13. The Lions will move Suh and Fairley around, which will be quite disruptive for opposing blocking schemes. Detroit added a pair of talented skill position players for quarterback Matt Stafford. Calvin Johnson draws the double teams, which should create single coverage for Nate Burleson and second round pick Titus Young from Boise State. Young will initially run out of the slot, but will contribute immediately on special teams. The Lions had a pair of second round selections and also landed Illinois running back Mikel Leshoure. With Kevin Smith always injured, Leshoure should be the power partner along with speed back Jahvid Best.

The Chicago Bears had only five selections in the 2011 draft, but addressed both lines in a big way. Big Gabe Carimi selected in the first round, should start from day one at right tackle. Carimi is a big time run blocker with great technique. With a league leading 56 sacks allowed last season, Jay Cutler should be a happy man. To address the defensive line, the Bears picked up the strongest player in the draft, Oregon State tackle Stephen Paea. The Bears have been seeking a replacement for Tommie Harris and Paea lacks only experience from reaching prime time status. The Bears took a developmental quarterback in Nathan Enderle from Idaho. Enderle has a strong arm, but limited mobility and played against lesser competition.

Tomorrow we take a look at the NFC South

Draft Impact- Mark Ingram

The Saints’ selection of Mark Ingram with the 28th pick of the 2011 NFL Draft was certainly a curveball in the fantasy world.

Analysis: As talented as Pierre Thomas is he hasn’t carried the rock 150 times in a season, ever. He’s a solid option in PPR leagues but he also hasn’t played a full sixteen games in a season either. Enter rookie Chris Ivory last year and you have a solid 225 pound goal line back who on 137 carries averaged 5.2 yards per carry. However, there are two big question marks with Ivory. How well will he recover from surgery to repair his Lisfranc injury and can he get his fumble issues under control (4 fumbles, 2 lost, 137 carries)? We all know Mark Ingram has protected the ball better than anyone in college football in recent memory and his hands are solid for third down passing situations. The questions with Ingram will be how many touches will he be on the end of and where should he go in fantasy drafts? Like many rookies he will go way before he should in fantasy drafts, but on the positive side he should get 160-180 carries and maintain value in PPR leagues.

Projection: He’s not quite a RB3 yet but he should be good for 750 rushing yards, 300 receiving yards and seven scores. His upside will be when Thomas gets injured, so he’s a great back for your bench.

NFL Draft Review: NFC East

 

How did your team do in the 2011 NFL draft? Lets take a look, beginning with the NFC East.

The Dallas Cowboys landed the elite blocker needed to round out their offensive line. USC tackle Tyron Smith is athletic and has the frame to add strength and weight. Oklahoma running back DeMarco Murray adds youth to the backfield and may replace Marion Barber on the roster. Murray is yet another example of the Cowboys  landing bit time talent at running back in the middle rounds (Barber and Tashard Choice).  Dallas took a chance on UNC linebacker Bruce Carter, a first round talent that fell due to a major knee injury his senior season. The Cowboys may have landed a bargain late in the draft in East Carolina receiver Dwayne Harris. Harris was honored as Conference USA player of the year after 101 receptions last season. Harris fell on draft boards after a mediocre combine, but has the talent to contribute in the slot along with Roy Williams and Miles Austin. The Cowboys mined smaller schools in the mid-rounds, Buffalo corner Josh Thomas and Missouri State guard David Arkin were nice, under the radar picks.

The Washington Redskins entered the 2011 draft with far more holes than draft picks to fill them. It’s a quarterback driven sport and the ‘Skins certainly needed one. Unexpectedly, Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert slipped to the tenth spot, held by Washington. GM Bruce Allen opted to pass, or not to under the circumstances, and trade down with Jacksonville. The Redskins went defense at the top, getting Purdue DE/LB Ryan Kerrigan and Clemson DL Javris Jenkins. From a fantasy standpoint, Miami wideout Leonard Hankerson has the skills to start week one. The Skins took three receivers in all, the last, SMU’s Aldrick Robinson, who may be turn out their best late round value pick. Running back is also a huge area of need in the Nation’s Capital. Washington traded up in the 4th round to grab Nebraska I-back Roy Helu. Helu possesses great size and speed and the skills that fit Mike Shanahan’s zone blocking scheme. Penn State running back Evan Royster, a hometown hero, may be late round value, dropping after a very disappointing senior season in happy valley. While ignoring the quarterback position was a surprise, waiting to address offensive line needs until the 7th round was as well. Look for QB to be addressed with a veteran free agent with Donovan McNabb shown the door.

Like the Redskins, the New York Giants addressed defense at the top of the draft. Elite Nebraska cover corner Prince Amukamara was not expected to be available when the G-Men picked, so they gladly gobbled him up when time came. Next to Patrick Peterson who is a freak of nature, Amukamara was the top corner in the draft. The Giants nabbed North Carolina defensive tackle Marvin Austin in the second round. Austin, one of many Tar Heels that sat out the 2010 season due to off the field issues, is certainly first round talent. New York relies on depth, athleticism and versatility along the defensive line and Austin fits the bill perfectly. Linebacker depth was also addressed with Michigan State’s Greg Jones. Entering the 2010 season. Jones was mentioned as a potential first round pick, so landing him in the sixth is pennies from heaven. Troy State reciever Jerrel Jernigan isn’t a track guy, nor have prototype size, but he can play. Look for Jernigan to contribute immediately in the slot and become a favorite target of Eli Manning. While the Giants look to have acquired excellent late round value, getting Maryland running back Da’Rel Scott in the seventh has to be considered a steal. Productive as a Terrapin, Scott turned some heads with the fastest 40 times at the combine. He  should be an excellent change of pace and insurance to co-starters Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs.

Of all the teams in the NFC East, the Philadelphia Eagles may have enjoyed the best draft across the board. Guard Danny Watkins is one of the more interesting stories in the draft. Watkins arriving as a 26 year old rookie, working as a firefighter for four years prior to his career at Baylor. Free agency may have created an opening at right guard, Watkins may slide right in to protect Michael Vick’s blind side. Staying with the offense, Philadelphia took a pair off running backs. Pittsburgh tailback Dion Lewis is undersized, but quick and could be an ideal development third back. In the seventh round, Philadelphia selected USC fullback Stanley Havili. Havili is an outstanding receiver and could develop into a third down back. Defensively, the Eagles address the defensive backfield with Temple safety Jaiquawn Jarrett and Utah State corner Curtis Marsh. The high profile defensive selection was Oregon linebacker Casey Matthews. Obviously, if Casey can follow in the family footsteps at the pro level, Philly received a mid round steal. Matthews has the versatility to play inside and outside, and could impact immediately as a rusher on passing downs.  The most surprising pick was the mid-round selection of Nebraska kicker Alex Henery. The arrival of Henery probably means the end of kicker David Akers career wth the Eagles.

Tomorrow, we will take a look at the NFC North

Draft Impact- Julio Jones

When the Falcons took Julio Jones with the sixth pick of the 2011 NFL draft it changed the fantasy landscape dramatically.

Analysis: With Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez already on board it seems unlikely Jones can put up WR2 numbers or WR3 numbers for that matter. White was targeted a staggering 179 times last year and Gonzo 111 times. I don’t see Jones coming in as a rookie and taking away many targets from those studs but he should bump Michael Jenkins out of the number two receiving role by the start of the season. Jenkins is pretty much a 50 reception, 600 yard type of fantasy receiver and Jones will be able to put up slightly better numbers his rookie year while stretching the defense like Jenkins never could (career 12.7 yards/rec). Jones does have a history of getting banged up far too much for my liking but he has an even bigger reputation as a tough a guy. The impact Jones will have on Matt Ryan cannot be underestimated. He takes Ryan from a stream starter in the Eli, Flacco, Freeman tier to the tenth best fantasy quarterback. Jones isn’t magically going put up a 1,000 yard season and make Ryan a fantasy stud but he will contribute to the overall success of their squad.

Projection: While I’m still taking AJ Green every day of the week over Jones in dynasty/keeper leagues, Jones has the highest ceiling of any rookie wide out this year. Expect 55 receptions, 700 receiving yards and six touchdowns, not quite WR3 numbers. He’ll be long gone in the draft before you can get him at value this year.

NFL Draft: Review and Preview

 

There was no suspense atop the draft last night with Cam Newton going as expected number one to Carolina. At number two, Denver selected linebacker Von Miller, with many projecting Alabama defensive lineman Marcel Dareus in that slot. Dareus ended  up going next to Buffalo, virtually swapping projected spots, so the impact on rest of first round was minimal.

The first surprise came with Atlanta trading up to Cleveland’s spot at number six and taking Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones. Jones going that high not a surprise, but the Falcons giving up five draft picks to do it, was a bit steep.

Many expected a run on quarterbacks, possibly early on. A run did come, but it did come as a surprise as several teams, with a need at the position, passed on Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert.  Tennessee shocked the room by taking Washington’s Jake Locker in the number eight slot.  With Gabbert slipping, Jacksonville moved up, trading with Washington, to get Gabbert. Another team needing a signal caller, Minnesota, did get one, but Florida State’s Christian Ponder was puzzling, with several higher regarded QB’s still available.  No other quarterbacks went in the first round, but many are lining up to potentially move up in tonight’s 2nd round to get one of the three big names still available, Arkansas’ Ryan Mallet, Andy Dalton of TCU and Colin Kaepernick fromm Nevada.

Several defensive lineman slipped from lofty projections. Auburn’s Nick Fairley lasting until pick thirteen, selected by Detroit, setting up as an intriguing interior for the Lions, paired with All-Pro Ndamukong Suh. North Carolina’s Robert Quinn  projected as a top ten pick by most, fell into the Rams lap at number 14.  It was a defensive lineman that didn’t get selected that is creating most of the buzz today. Clemson’s DaQuan Bowers getting bypassed in the opening round due to some serious injury concerns. Going into the 2010 season, Bowers was considering the top NFL prospect.

Lineman dominated much of the remaining picks in the opening round. Not surprisingly, only one running back was taken. Alabama’s Heisman trophy winner Mark Ingram selected by the New Orleans Saints with pick number 28.  Only three corner backs were taken in what was regarded as a shallow position. Elite cover man Patrick Peterson chosen by Arizona at number five, but Nebraska’s Prince Amukamara lasted longer than expected, going at number 19 to the New York Giants. Colorado’s Jimmy Smith was the other corner, Baltimore selecting him at 27.  That pick is causing a bit of a controversy, as Baltimore was actually passed over in the slot briefly, while trying to work a trade with Chicago. The Ravens have asked the NFL for a 4th round pick from the Bears to compensate them for the mess.

Rounds two and three are tonight when the draft resumes There are some excellent prospects till on the board, which may prompt some trading in picks. We already mentioned Bowers, along with  the three quarterbacks, all of which will be gone early. As mentioned, Ingram is the only running back gone, leaving three excellent backs still up for grabs. Virginia Tech’s Ryan Williams, Kansas State’s Daniel Thomas and Illinois’ Mikel Leshoure will all be taken quickly tonight. The elite receivers are long gone, but a solid six will go tonight, headlined by Maryland speedster Torrey Smith.  Notre Dame’s Kyle Rudolph is the best tight end in the draft, it wouldn’t have surprised had he been taken last night.

Lineman were very popular in round one, with twenty selected, eight on defense and a dozen on offense.  The cream of the crop is gone on the offensive side of things, but solid defensive lineman, led by Bowers still remain. More specifically, a trio of defensive tackles will be in high demand. Oregon State strong man Stephen Paea, Jarvis Jenkins from Clemson and North Carolina’s Marvin Austin are on everyone’s short list. With Von Miller the only traditional linebacker taken last night, lots of quality remains. Georgia”s Justin Houston and UCLA’s Akeem Ayers will go early on. The class was shallow at cornerback, and all three are gone. The top defensive back taken will probably be Rahim Moore of UCLA.

Rounds four through seven are on Saturday as the draft wraps up.