Draft Impact- Daniel Thomas

Many experts are already tagging Miami’s new running back as a fantasy star, but is he?

Analysis: The Dolphins will not start the 2011 season with Daniel Thomas as their primary back so these “experts” will have to back off of their claims (eventually). The Dolphins will try to resign Ronnie Brown although it may be a lost cause. DeAngelo Williams remains on the market as well as guys like Cedric Benson, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Ahmad Bradshaw as well as RFA Mike Tolbert and Willis McGahee when he refuses to take a pay cut. In short, there are plenty of viable running backs on the market and the Dolphins must sign one of them. Miami ran the ball the eleventh most times last year but only managed a 3.7 yards per carry average, second worst in the NFL. The Dolphins turned Brandon Marshall from a 10 touchdown, 101 reception receiver into a 3 touchdown, 86 reception low end WR2. Do you really think Thomas will step in and become the best fantasy rookie? I thought not. “Experts” can say all they want about how Daniel Thomas will be the best rookie this year now but when the chips fall and he continues struggling with pass protection and blitz pick up and Miami sign a legit back they’ll have a new flavor of the week to drool over.

Projection: It doesn’t matter who the other running back will be for Miami, Daniel Thomas will not be their primary back this year. The fifth running back off the board in this year’s draft isn’t going to make a run first team who averaged the second worst yards per carry in the NFL last year any better. Expect 140 carries and nothing more.

NFL Draft Recap: NFC West

 

The Arizona Cardinals may have landed the best player in the draft in LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson. A jumbo cover corner at 219 pounds, Peterson may eventually move to free safety. For now, he and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie may be the best set of young corners in the NFL. Peterson is also an elite kick returner and should elevate the Cards special teams instantly. Virginia Tech running back Ryan Williams is Arizona’s latest effort to generate a ground game. Beanie Wells can’t shake the injury bug, so the Cardinals were forced to again spend a high pick on the position. Williams is an exciting back, with a great blend of size, strength and speed. The Cardinals were hoping to address quarterback and receiver to pacify Larry Fitzgerald, but settled for tight end Rob Housler. Look for Arizona to make a strong push for Philadelphia QB Kevin Kolb. I like the pair of linebackers that were selected mid draft. Texas’ Sam Acho and Quan Sturdivant should add solid depth at the position. Acho will make the conversion from college defensive end to 3-4 outside linebacker, while Sturdivant is a prototype for an inside post.

The St.Louis Rams were eager to add a playmaker at receiver for quarterback Sam Bradford.  With Julio Jones and AJ Green off the board, the Rams couldn’t pass on North Carolina’s Robert Quinn. Quinn is an excellent pass rusher and should combine with Chris Long to give St.Louis talent on the edge for the  next decade. The Rams then turned their attention to targets for Bradford, picking up a pair of a receivers and a talented tight end in rounds two, three and four. H-Back Lance Hendricks comes from Wisconsin, a talented receiver certain to be utilized by new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Boise State’s Austin Pettis and Greg Salas from Hawaii, add solid depth at wide out. Both were very productive college receivers and should eventually move into the top three at the position. While neither will stretch the field, both are effective route runners and along with Hendricks should give Bradford much needed additional targets.

Much like the Rams, the San Franciso 49ers were hoping to address skill positions on offense. Not unlike St.Louis, they found a defender they just couldn’t pass up. Missouri’s Aldon Smith is a pass rushing specialist with the versatility to play end in a 4-3 or outside linebacker in a 3-4 alignment. New Head Coach Jim Harbaugh hopes he has his quarterback of the future in second round pick Colin Kaepernick of Nevada. Kaepernick has a strong arm, great athleticism and prototype size. Kaepernick is expected to serve as an understudy to Alex Smith as he converts from the pistol formation he mastered in college to Harbaugh’s pro style attack. Oklahoma State running back Kendall Hunter appears a perfect fit as a change of pace to Frank Gore. South Carolina defensive back Chris Culliver is an elite athlete and has already been named the Niners nickel back for 2011.

The Seattle Seahawks were one of several teams needing a quarterback in a big way, that didn’t select one. Instead new offensive line coach Tom Cable was rewarded with tools in the first two rounds. Alabama tackle James Carpenter and Wisconsin guard John Moffitt will both be expected to challenge for playing time this fall. Both were considered extensive reaches, with Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban even appearing shocked when Carpenter was selected in the first round. Carpenter will be limited to the right side if projected as a tackle, while Moffitt has versatility to play either guard or center. The ‘Hawks may have landed a sleeper in Georgia wide receiver Kris Durham in the 4th round. Durham is a huge possession receiver, much like current Seahawk Mike Williams. Durham has decent speed and stepped up nicely for the Dawgs early in 2010 when AJ Green was serving a four game suspension.

Tomorrow we breakdown the AFC East

Draft Impact- Mikel Leshoure

One of the best picks in the second round of the NFL Draft was the selection of Illinois running back Mikel Leshoure by the Detroit Lions. Jahvid Best is a great back to have in PPR leagues but he isn’t a twenty carry per game back.

Analysis: The only knock on Jahvid Best last year was his lingering turf toe injury. Besides battling with that injury for more than half of the season Best still caught a staggering 58 balls and put up 1,042 total yards. Best is still the most talented back in Detroit but the addition of 230 pound bruiser Mikel Leshoure makes the Lions one of the deepest offensive teams in the NFC. Best is still the man in passing situations but Leshoure will become the go to goal line back of choice. We also cannot ignore 31 year old back Maurice Morris who scored five touchdowns in the final six games of the 2010 season but he will drop to third on the depth chart. With Leshoure you have a poor man’s Rashard Mendenhall and that’s not a bad thing. Leshoure will pound the rock and hit pay dirt nearly as much as Jahvid Best.

Projection: Jahvid Best seems to be a lock for 60 receptions and 1,200 total yards this year. Mikel Leshoure will be the short yardage workhorse and should receive 150-180 carries. Expect 700 rushing yards with six scores from Leshoure in 2011. In the long term he may well develop into a borderline RB2/RB3. This year he makes a great insurance policy on Best in the later rounds.

NFL Draft Recap: NFC South

 

No division in the NFL made more of a splash in the draft than the NFC South. Each of the four teams making selections that may have a huge impact. Atlanta with a big move up in the 1st round, New Orleans trading for an additional first round pick, Tampa Bay taking a high risk/high reward pick and of course Carolina picking number one overall.

We start with Atlanta, the elite team in the NFC South. Feeling they are close to an NFC crown, the Falcons traded multiple picks to move up to number six and grab Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones. Jones will provide another big time target for quarterback Matt Ryan and might relieve the double teaming of Roddy White. Atlanta used its fifth round pick to select Oregon State running back Jacquizz Rodgers. Rodgers was highly productive in college and will be a nice change of pace to bruiser Michael Turner. The Falcons addressed defense with a pair of local stars. Georgia linebacker Akeem Dent and South Carolina defensive end Cliff Matthews are both very capable of making the roster.

A year removed from a Super Bowl victory, the Saints were aggressive, trading multiple picks to acquire an additional first round selection. New Orleans first addressed defense with California defensive end Cameron Jordan. Jordan is stout against the run and may push for the starting job at left end. Four picks later, New Orleans took the best running back in the draft, Alabama’s Mark Ingram. Comparisons to Emmitt Smith are valid, Ingram is ideal for 1st and 2nd down between the tackles. If  Reggie Bush’s ego can be soothed, it might make for a lethal combination in the Saints backfield.

Carolina had the number one selection and to no surprise took Auburn  quarterback Cam Newton. Newton is a lightning rod for criticism, but arrives with off the chart combine measurables.  Newton’s Heisman Trophy was well deserved as his passing and rushing numbers are among the best in the history of the game. The Panthers added several late round selections which may surprise. In the 5th round, the Panthers picked Hawaii receiver Kealoha Pilares who is tough and reliable over the middle. In the seventh round, great value in Auburn offensive tackle Lee Ziemba. Ziemba started for four seasons at left tackle, but projects at right tackle at this level.

Tampa Bay had defensive focus atop its draft board. Adrian Clayborn, the best of a great Iowa defensive line, was the Bucs first round  selection. He should start at end immediately. In the second, the Buccaneers took a gamble on Clemson defensive end Da’Quan Bowers. Just a few months ago, Bowers was mentioned by some as a potential  first overall pick. A serious injury scared many, some even removing Bowers from their draft boards. A year ago Tampa hit the jackpot with defensive tackles Gerald McCoy and Brian Price. With 1st and 2nd round selections in successive years on the defensive line, the buccaneers feel they may now have the pass rush to excel in the Tampa Cover 2 defense. If Bowers is healthy, watch out! The Bucs addressed a need at tight end selecting Luke Stocker from Tennessee. Some have compared him to former Vol Jason Witten.

Tomorrow we look at the NFC West

Draft Impact- Jonathan Baldwin

The Chiefs selected 6’5″, 230 pound Jonathan Baldwin with the 26th pick of the 2011 NFL Draft. This pick just may take the Chiefs to the next level but it’s more likely that Baldwin follows the career path of one James Hardy.

Analysis: If you take a look at the positives you just may find yourself liking Jonathan Baldwin more and more. Outside of Dwayne Bowe and his 132 targets no other Chief wide out was targeted more than 43 times. Unless things go absolutely wrong at training camp, Baldwin should slot right into the number two receiver role in Kansas City. Baldwin does have 4.5 speed so he should be able to become a deep threat but his 42 inch vertical to go along with his 6’5″ frame is exactly why he was drafted in the first round. The Chiefs still remain a run first team at least while Thomas Jones is still in town so don’t get overly excited. Matt Cassel isn’t a slouch at quarterback so Baldwin should be getting some catchable balls but the question remains- is Baldwin the next James Hardy or is he a souped up version of Plaxico Burress? In dynasty leagues I’m taking the obvious guys along with Greg Little and Leonard Hankerson (needs a QB) before I’m taking Baldwin.

Projection: Baldwin is barely relevant in fantasy leagues this year. Expect 40 receptions, 480 yards and a few scores.