Wait NCAA! The NIT, CBI and CTI dance first!

Were you aware that there 140 teams played in post season basketball tournaments this month? You know about the NCAA tournament, commonly referred to as “March Madness. And you even know about the NIT which has been where teams that miss out on the main tourney play as a consolation.  But that’s not all, there are two other tournaments!  The College Basketball Invitational (CBI) and the CollegeInsider.com tournament (CIT), more on them in a moment.

The National Invitational Tournament (NIT) takes center stage tonight at Madison Square Garden. The NIT has been reduced to its Final Four. Alabama and Colorado tip in tonight’s opener, followed by Wichita State against Washington State. The Crimson Tide and Buffaloes were top seeds and were just outside the Big Dance bubble. Wichita State and Washington State survived whereas top seeds Boston College and Virginia Tech from the ACC did not.

Its the 4th year of the CBI which began with a field of 16 teams. The CBI has reached its finals, but they do things differently than the rest with a best two of three championship. Creighton took the opener Monday night, with game two tomorrow (Wednesday) in Eugene, the if game Friday, also in Oregon, should the Ducks even the series . All games in the tournament played on campus of participating teams.

The newest member of the postseason, the CIT is in its 3rd year. 24 teams have been reduced to two with Santa Clara playing at Iona for the title tomorrow night. Like the CBI, all games in the tournament are played on campus.

I like the idea of tournament games being played on campus. Would the NCAA ever consider it for the Big Dance?  I like the idea of higher seeds getting a home game, at least in the first round, to reward a better regular season performance. As it stands now, a higher seed plays on a neutral court, sometimes a hostile one, despite having a much better body of work. Imagine if higher seeds played at home all the way to the Final Four. Would some of the long shots have won? Would VCU win at Kansas? Would Butler win in Gainesville? Just a though.

Three Ball And Assist Help

With only a little over two weeks in the regular season it’s time to make that final push. If you are in need of three ball and assists down the stretch, Lou Williams just may be your man.

Analysis: Despite getting his average number of minutes recently, Lou Williams is playing some sneaky good ball. His points and steals are up over his season averages over the last few weeks but that’s not what your looking for, you need some assists to go along with those threes. Well, Williams has hit at least two threes a game in four of his last six games with a free throw percentage around eighty percent in that stretch. Williams has also reached four assists in four of his last six games and dropping 24 points twice in that span. Granted, he isn’t setting the league on fire but this deep into the season you don’t have many options to improve your squad, every little bit helps. Williams’ point guard and shooting guard eligibility only add to his value at this point.

Projection: Expect more of the same as Williams will help the Sixers secure the sixth seed in the eastern conference. He’ll give you 14 points and a steal pretty much every night but it’s the threes, assists and free throw percentage that make him so valuable in deep leagues right now.

MLB: American League Pitchers

How important is pitching in Fantasy Baseball? Well, its worth half, when it comes to points in almost every format. Most leagues are standard four category rotisserie or the 5×5 which is growing in popularity.

How much of your fantasy budget should you spend? I wouldn’t spend more than a third of your budget if you are in a mixed league. Owners in National and American only leagues might have to spend a bit more due to scarcity. League size plays a role when determining budget and emphasis on saves can skew prices of closers.

Lets start with the sure things. Is there such an animal in fantasy sports? Well, injuries to star pitchers like Stephen Strasburg and Adam Wainwright show that anyone is just a pitch away…. from season ending injury.  With that in mind, Seattle’s Felix Hernandez is the only American League pitcher that is a “must have” in my book.  “King Felix” is young, has nasty stuff and is incredibly durable. Yankee pitcher C.C.Sabathia might be the next closest thing with similar strengths and the option for opting out of his contract for free agency at the end of the season.

The next grouping of pitchers should be from the “young guns”. These are players that have already displayed elite skills are are within the prime (26-28) or peak age. Boston’s Jon Lester, Anaheim’s Jared Weaver, Detroit’s Justin Verlander and Minnesota’s Francisco Liriano headline that group.  I also recommend going for power pitchers, even if you are not in a 5×5 with strikeouts. Why? I’ll take a strike out over a batted ball any day.

I also recommend going for the younger pitchers over those that are 30 and beyond. In that list, pitchers that are approaching prime are Tampa Bay’s David Price, Detroit’s Max Scherzer, Boston’s Clay Buchholz, Chicago’s John Danks and New York’s Phillip Hughes.

There are several American League staffs with a number of pitchers who may serve you well. Baltimore has a trio with a big upside in Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta and Chris Tillman. In Tampa, we already mentioned Mr. Price, but also consider Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann and Jeremy Hellickson. Oakland may have the most impressive group of all with Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill,  Gio Gonzalez and Dallas Braden. These pitchers have “live” arms, should be on the “upside” of careers and for the most part were taken with premium picks in the Amateur draft.

There are some injuries to be aware of:  Texas’ Brandon Webb, Chicago’s Jake Peavy, Toronto’s Brandon Morrow and Oakland closer Andrew Bailey appear headed for the disabled list by opening day. Bid accordingly or perhaps avoid altogether.  Who may breakout in the AL from a year ago? Anaheim’s Dan Haren over from the National League, Minnesota closer Joe Nathan and newly installed Chicago closer Matt Thornton.

About the closers, there are two strategies, get the sure fire guy or load up on “committee” guys. Only five are likely to get most of the opportunities: Kansas City’s Joakim “The Mexicutioner” Soria, Boston’s Jonathan Papelbon, New York’s Mariano Rivera and Texas’ Neftali Feliz. The next grouping includes the aforementioned Bailey, Thornton and Nathan as well as Cleveland’s Chris Perez. Doubt does remain even with some of these, Papelbon has struggled with Daniel Bard a capable replacement, Rivera is ancient with Rafael Soriano waiting in the wings, Nathan has Matt Capps looking over his surgically repaired shoulder and Texas can’t decide if Feliz is a starter or reliever. If you go with these types, you may want to take the “handcuff” backup or alternate, especially if you have reserve roster space. My two favorite “sleepers”? Tampa Bay’s Jake McGee and Chicago’s Chris Sale, don’t tell anybody, OK?

Tomorrow, we’ll begin to breakdown the National League.

JaVale McGee is Playing Great Down the Final Stretch

Despite the Wizards second worst record in the East they still have a few things to be excited about, JaVale’s playing being one of them.

Analysis: This has been a breakout year for JaVale with everything except team success coming his way. He really broke out of his shell during the all-star game with his creative dunks. The dunk on two separate rims was epic. He appears to have found a new confidence and is harnessing it very successfully. Over the last 10 games JaVale is averaging a whopping 3.5 blocks per game along with 11 boards. He is also putting up decent scoring numbers with 14 points a contest at 59% shooting. These last 10 game statistics are well above JaVale’s season averages, but I don’t see them as a fluke. I believe the more he plays with a great point guard in John Wall and the more confidence he accumulates the better he will be. At this point in the season the Wizards aren’t playing for anything. Their playoff hopes have long been dashed and their is really no purpose to them trying their hardest. JaVale is still putting up one of the best streaks of his career.

Projection: JaVale has finally arrived and I expect his stats to improve on his recent streak. He’ll finish out the season posting similar numbers, but next season is when you should expect him to really pour it on. Imagine how good he’ll be when he’s actually playing for something.

MLB: American League hitters

 

When looking at sleepers in Major League Baseball, an important distinction is the type of league you are competing in. If you are involved in an American (or National) only league, there really are no sleepers. If you are in a mixed league, you need to know the secondary players, as that are where many auctions/drafts are won and lost.

We begin behind the plate where Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez reign supreme. You will pay dearly for either, as following them there is a major drop off.  Cleveland’s Carlos Santana will be victim of overhype, most likely overpriced.  NY’s Russell Martin and Boston’s Jarrod Saltalamacchia should deliver and might be bargains. Look for Baltimore’s Matt Wieters to deliver big after disappointing his rookie season. Low round bet: Alex Avila of Detroit.

On to the corner, where as usual, scarcity awaits at 3b. At the top Kevin Youkilis, Evan Longoria and Alex Rodriguez. Stay away from Jose Bautista as he will be expensive and cannot follow up the career season of a year ago.Baltimore’s Mark Reynolds should deliver power at Camden Yards and Chone Figgins should bounce back with speed in Seattle. Over at 1b, the big four; Boston’s Adrian Gonzalez, New York’s Mark Teixeria, Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera and Minnesota’s Justin Morneau.  Kendry Morales may come cheaper due to his prolonged injury, but he won’t be out long. Seattle’s Justin Smoak will reward those that pick him.

In the middle, New York’s Robinson Cano and Boston’s Dustin Pedroia will be premium selections.  Texas’ Ian Kinsler, Baltimore’s Brian Roberts and Toronto’s Aaron Hill are all capable of bounce back seasons. Chicago’s Gordon Beckham struggled a year ago, but soon will be the best in the circuit. With the premiere shortstops in the National League, you may be best served by waiting for a bargain. Chicago’s Alexei Ramirez and Texas’ Elvis Andrus will be the sexy picks, but probably overvalued. I like Boston’s Jed Lowrie, Minnesota’s Alexi Casilla and the Escobar’s, Alcides in Kansas City and Yunel in Toronto.

Boston’s Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury and Texas outfielder Josh Hamilton will require top picks or premium dollars on draft day. Much depends on how your league value’s stolen bases and to some extend runs scored. I tend to avoid the one category wonders like Toronto’s Rajai Davis, Toronto’s Juan Pierre and New York’s Brett Gardner. If you are in a 5×5, then the runs scored will give them more value. If you must have a speed merchant, Texas’ Julio Borbon will be a much more affordable option. Watch Grady Sizemore at your draft/auction, injuries will hurt his value, jump if it gets too low. My favorite targets are always the young players who didn’t deliver first time around. Minnesota’s Denard Span tops this group along with Baltimore’s Adam Jones. Chicago’s Carlos Quentin and Baltimore’s Nick Markakis could also bring value after less that stellar seasons.

For your utility spot, if you grab a designated hitter, obviously he must go here. I personally like to have more flexibility with a player with multiple position eligibility in this spot. Why? it allows you to plug him in to fill an injury and pick from the entire pool of free agents for the utility spot.  If you must, Vladimir Guerrero, now with the Orioles, is the only elite player that does not qualify in the field. Other options are Boston’s David Ortiz, Cleveland’s Travis Hafner, Minnesota’s Jim Thome and Oakland’s Hideki Matsui.

Minor League (hitters): If you have a minor league phase during your draft/auction, here is a look at your prime targets. Chicago 3b Brent Morel should be the starter, sooner than later. New York catcher Jesus Montero arrives this year. Players for more long term consideration?  Kansas City is loaded with 3b  Mike Moustakas and 1b Eric Hosmer both elite prospects. Seattle 2b Dustin Ackley will be a long term fixture for the Mariners. 2b Brett Lawrie has a future in Boston. Tampa SS Tim Beckham was the top pick in the 2008 amateur draft. Also in the Rays system outfielder Desmond Jennings. Jennings has been slow to arrive, but definitely worth of a top pick.  Many hot shot rookies are on the bubble between the majors and minors. Be sure to check the 25 man rosters immediately prior to Opening Day.

Tomorrow, we’ll take a look at American League pitchers.