Jonathan Sanchez Is Not A SP2 Or SP3

Many sites have distorted projections of Jonathan Sanchez due to his extremely low ERA last year.

Analysis: Jonathan Sanchez may be a strikeout machine but he was one lucky guy last year. He had a 79.5 LOB%, fourth best among qualified pitchers in 2010 and over seven percent above his career average. His 2010 FIP of 4.00 was nearly identical to his career average of 4.08. However, his ERA last year was 3.07 making his ERA minus FIP -.93, which means he was the fifth luckiest pitcher in baseball last year. His career ERA is over 4.2! Also take into consideration his BABIP against was .252 last year, thirty-seven points below his career average. There is no possible way Sanchez can sustain these numbers and finish as the twenty-second best pitcher in roto formats like he did last year.

Projection: Sanchez will go long before he should in most drafts and that means you won’t get the chance to pick him up but that’s fine because he’ll only give you 13 Wins, 3.80 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 200 K’s… solid SP4 numbers if you ask me.

What to Expect From Domonic Brown

Ranked fourth on Baseball America’s latest Top 100 Prospects list, Brown is fighting to become Philadelphia’s starting right fielder on Opening Day.

Analysis: A hidden gem not selected until the 20th round in 2006, the 23-year old Brown has rapidly ascended through the Phillies system over the last few years, making his Major League debut this past summer. The youngster scuffled a bit over 35 games in the bigs, to the tune of .210/.257/.355 in 70 plate appearances. During this cup of coffee, however, Brown displayed flashes of brilliance including an RBI double in his first at-bat. A true five-tool player, Domonic’s potential emergence has softened the blow of losing Jayson Werth to free agency. Currently in competition with both John Mayberry Jr. and Ben Francisco for the starting right field job, Brown appears to have the upper hand in manager Charlie Manuel’s eyes. Although Manuel has stated that the position if “up for grabs” he plans to play the phenom a lot this spring, getting him as many at-bats as possible. This stance says a lot about the team’s immediate plans for Brown, and they are giving him every chance possible to work his way onto that April 1st lineup card.

Projection: Unless he has a terrible showing in the Grapefruit League, expect to see Brown patrolling right field at Citizens Bank Park when that first pitch is thrown against the Astros. The Philly brass wants him there, and so does young Domonic who seems to have the right mindset about winning the job. Surrounded by a monster (albeit lefty heavy) lineup, Brown should thrive in the cozy confines of the Phillies home park. Look for something in the .280/.350/.490 area over a full season, with 20-25 stolen bases to boot.

Matt Kemp or Carlos Pena: Pick 1 Keeper

You have notable bounce back candidates Kemp and Pena competing for your last Freeze Roster slot. Toting up their profits is simple arithmetic, right?

Facts: Pena has steadily dropped from .287/46 HR in 2007 to .196/28 HR last season at age 32. Hamstring and foot injuries obviously contributed to his 2010 decline. His career has seen injuries to 6 other body parts: hand (2), knee (2), and once each- groin, head, thigh, and eye. Weigh those with a change of scenery to the NL Central and Cubbies. Kemp dropped off last season from .297/34 SB/89 RBI to .249/19 SB/89 RBI. His fans only wish it was physical, yet Rihanna, Torre, and Bowa are no longer in the picture, while MLB’s Hoosier response to the NBA’s Larry Bird is a continuing and nurturing presence in Chavez Ravine.

Analysis: You have a simple pre-Freeze profit in each of $5, so it’s a toss up. Right? Well, lets look a little closer. Back of the envelope calculations on your league’s suspected keepers shows  a 30% inflation rate at your Auction. Typically, the Roto keeper league inflation rate averages 13%, but we’ve occasionally seen it well beyond 30%. Now what?

Kemp/Pena

$30/$10  Salary

$35/$15  Projected 2011 Value

$5/$5      Pre-Freeze Profit

$23/ $8   Strong Dollar Freeze Salary

$12/$7    Freeze Profit at Weak Dollar Auction

Note: Divide present salary by inflation rate to covert strong Freeze dollars to weak inflated Auction dollars ($30 divided by 130% = $23.)

Kemp is easily the better keeper.

Projections:

Kemp .276/89 R/88 RBI/24 HR/27 SB/612 AB

Pena .220/73 R/87 RBI/29 HR/4 SB/494 AB

{6-4-3 Assist to Marcel}

 

 

Brandon Roy is Playing Without Knees

Brandon Roy returned to the Trail Blazers’ lineup last night and the question now is, what to do with him?

Analysis: If you were unfortunate enough to pick up Roy in this horrible injury plagued season then I really feel for you. He normally puts up reasonable fantasy numbers and doesn’t hurt you in any particular category. In the previous two years Roy has averaged over 20 points per game, 4 boards, and 4 assists, while not hurting you with his percentages. This year has not been good at all, as losing his knees has obviously affected his performance. He is shooting less than 40% on the season, which is horrible even among high shooting guards.To top it off last night’s game was only his 24th appearance of the season, making him less injured than Greg Oden, but not many other players. You can’t ever doubt Roy’s heart, because boy does he play with a lot of passion, but was he really ready to come back? Something seems to be amiss with the Portland training staff, because they just can’t seem to keep their key guys healthy. With their injury history they should attempt to steal the Phoenix Suns training staff who keep an elderly Steve Nash going strong. Brandon Roy is only 26 years old, so hopefully we haven’t seen the last of him, but knees play some importance in this game of basketball.

Projection: Portland has been doing just fine with LaMarcus Aldridge becoming their new go to guy, and I’m not sure why they rushed Roy back. If you can convince one of your league mates to trade for Roy, then do it, but otherwise in most leagues a waiver wire pickup is a better option right now. Roy’s knees aren’t getting any better and besides there will be even less touches going around for Portland with Gerald Wallace joining the club.

Good or Bad Move for Carmelo Anthony?

Carmelo Anthony was traded on Tuesday from Denver to his dream destination of New York City. Will his fantasy stats improve, worsen, or stay somewhat similar?

Analysis: While Carmelo has always been a solid fantasy pickup he has never been a fantasy darling. There is a chance that he will love the New York City spotlight and strive under it. Anthony is known as one of the best scorers in the NBA. Equally important is his reputation as one of the game’s greatest closers. Even Kobe-clutch-blasting Henry Abbott agrees that Carmelo is one of the most clutch scorers in the NBA. When the game is on the line there is nobody better than Carmelo to take that last shot. I believe he takes this skill and runs with it in NYC. Who wouldn’t enjoy bringing back one of the best basketball cities to its former glory days. In his first game with the Knicks Carmelo put up some great numbers with 27 points, 10 boards, and 2 steals. He only shot 40% from the floor and doled out a paltry 1 assist, but he helped the Knicks win the game by, you guessed it, hitting some clutch shots.

Projection: Carmelo now has one of his most talented teammates ever in Amar’e Stoudemire and I believe this will result in improved points, three-pointers, and assists for the remainder of the season. Amar’e demands a double team and when that happens we know who will be open for the three. Expect minor improvements across the board for Carmelo due to this change of scenery.