Ubaldo Jimenez and Josh Johnson: Solid Buy or Bargain?

Jimenez earned $29 in 2010 and $24 in 2009, while Johnson earned $24 both seasons. Ubaldo threw the Rockies first no-hitter last April and had 15 wins at the Break, while Josh had the lowest NL ERA.

Analysis: Ubaldo is being punished in auctions for 3 cardinal sins- not winning 30 or even 20 games last season; not giving up a normal number of HR; and not breaking down despite suspected pitcher abuse, i.e. 27 games between 100 and 119 pitches, plus another 9 over 119. Jimenez missed 10 days in 2010 and 7 in 2009. On the other hand, Johnson was shut down near the end of the 2010 season for being weary; he had Tommy John Surgery in 2008. Lets look at the two halves of the 2010 season.

Hurler W IP HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
A  <ASG 15 127 6 46 113 2.20 1.05 .198
A  >ASG 4 94.2 4 46 101 3.80 1.30 .223
B <ASG 9 122 4 28 123 1.70 0.96 .203
B >ASG 2 61.2 3 20 63 3.50 1.39 .276

A is Ubaldo; B is Josh. ASG = All Star Game. In the recent CBS Sports Expert Auction Ubaldo was hammered down for $20 and Josh for $25.

Projections:
Jimenez 20 W, 222 IP, 200 K, 3.45 ERA, and 1.21 WHIP.
Johnson 15 W, 203 IP, 201 K, 3.38 ERA, and 1.25 WHIP.
Why pay 25% more for Johnson?

Last Call On Kovalev

Right Winger Alexei Kovalev was dealt to the Pittsburgh Penguins today boosting his value and making him not so under the radar anymore. Kovalev is available in about forty percent of fantasy leagues nationwide so now is the time to pick him up.

Analysis: Remember, Kovalev is still playing for a new contract and now that he’ll be playing for the Pens his plus/minus rating will certainly become an asset to fantasy owners. He’s been on fire lately with 6 goals, 3 assists, about 17 minutes of ice time and is a plus 3 in his last ten games. His move to the Pens will certainly help their fifteenth ranked power play. Also, the Pens have what Ottawa does not, better forwards to play with in Jordan Staal or Tyler Kennedy at center and Matt Cooke or newly acquired James Neal at left wing. If you’re lucky Sidney Crosby may come back to center the Russian sniper.

Projection: This is a great trade for Kovalev’s value. He’s motivated, he’s on a playoff caliber squad and his plus/minus won’t be suspect anymore playing on a solid team with Marc-Andre Fleury in net. Five to ten goals and over eighteen minutes of ice time with a handful of power play points is what you’ll get from Kovalev as he’ll try to push the Pens into the fourth seed in the east.

Elvis Andrus Lite – Alexi Casilla Bargain

Andrus is hot and expensive: $27 in the recent CBS Sports Experts Auction and Round 6 in the KFFL Experts Draft. Casilla is cool, but only in the temperature sense, a post hype, post injury sleeper: $5 and Round 27 in the same Expert Auction and Draft. Both will be starting shortstops in 2011.
Analysis: Casilla has been cowed since his MLB debut in 2006 (age 21), garnering only 557 PA in 5 seasons due to immaturity and injuries. He’ll be 26 with MLB experience growth wise, so lets focus on the injury aspect. Alexi missed 50 days last season and 22 days in 2008. Career wise he’s had injuries to 6 different body parts: hand (3), low back (2), and only once- foot, hip, elbow, and ankle.
PA R HR RBI SB BA OBP Earned
A 674 88 0 35 32 .265 .342 $16
B 557 65 8 50 18 .249 .336 n/a
A is actual 2010 for Elvis. B is an attempt to condense Alexi’s career into a single season’s worth of stats. (6-4-3 Assist to Baseball-Reference’s 162 Game Average)
Projection: 574 PA, 70 R, 10 HR, 60 RBI, 32 SB, .275 BA, .355 OBP, $20 Earned.

NFL Combine: A Fan’s Guide

While the NFL has an uncertain future, the NFL’s future is on display this week in Indianapolis.

Tight ends, kickers and other specialists got things started with the combine staggered by position with each group getting four days to show their stuff.

The first three days are uneventful for You The Fan.  Day one, athletes go through orientation and receive clearance from medical staff.  Day two filled with measurements, media time and interviews. Day three features meetings with the players association and more mental testing. Finally, on the fourth day the NFL network gets real involved and we get to see the athletes in action.

For your viewing pleasure, the 4th day is when we get to see the meat market.  Here’s a quick calendar to make sure you catch the position groups you seek!

Wednesday : Offensive lineman, tight ends, kickers, specialists (Saturday)

Thursday: Quarterbacks and wide receivers (Sunday)

Friday: Defensive lineman and linebackers (Monday)

Saturday: Defensive backs (Tuesday

Remember the visual stuff for us doesn’t come until the 4th day. (shown in paranthesis for each group)

What exactly will we see on Day 4?

-40 yard sprint

-2o yard shuttle

-3 cone drill

-60 yard shuttle

-standing long jump

-vertical jump

To wrap things up, players execute a half dozen drills specific to position. This is where we get the directly “football related” activities.

Who is participating? We have the full list for you: http://www.nfl.com/com bine/participants

What’s new this year? Cablecam technology! No, not specifically for Cam Newton, but a cutting edge overhead angle which promises a unique and more intimate view of the workouts.

Best of the Best. If you don’t know Mike Mayock. You need to. The NFL Networks draft expert IS the best in the business.

With the NFL combine and April’s NFL draft continuing despite labor unrest, this may be NFL fans last taste of pro gridiron action for awhile. More than 300 athletes and more than 30 hours of LIVE NFL Network coverage, certainly enough to satisfy any football appetite.

Wainwright’s Injury Hurts Franklin’s Value

Adam Wainwright won twenty games last year with the Cards so how many less save opportunities will closer Ryan Franklin have this year?

Analysis: The Adam Wainwright injury is devastating to keeper league owners but Ryan Franklin’s fantasy value take a pretty big hit as well. Franklin will see fewer save opportunities and have smaller leads to work with. Franklin goes from a closer that has averaged 32.5 saves over the last two years and a middle tier reliever to a guy that is a Chris Carpenter injury away from being Ryan Madson with a higher ERA. Sure he’ll get you some saves but if Carpenter was to get injured you’d think the Cards would move in a differerent, younger direction at closer.

Projection: The potential loss of Wainwright for the year moves Franklin from a middle tier 17th-24th ranked closer to having as much value as a Kevin Gregg. Franklin isn’t a strikeout pitcher with his 5.8K/9IP line last year and for a guy who won’t touch thirty saves don’t bother touching him on draft day.